Ahead of Thursday’s showdown, let’s take a closer look at just how well the new-look Celtics match up with the Warriors and get a sense of whether Golden State has any real holes on either end of the floor that the C’s can exploit as they try to extend their 13-game winning streak.
Warriors on offense
117.1 points scored per 100 possessions (1st)
Pace: 102.1 possessions/game (10th)
Four factors
eFG%: .597 (1)
TOV rate: 15.5% (29)
OReb rate: 23% (12)
FT/FGA rate: .205 (14)
Celtics on defense
97.8 points allowed per 100 possessions (1st)
Four factors
eFG%: .480 (1)
TOV rate: 14.4% (12)
DReb rate: 81.3% (3)
FT/FGA rate: .182 (7)
What to watch for when the Warriors have the ball
Who does Kyrie Irving guard? There’s no good choice here. Steph Curry is still one of the best basketball players on the planet and Klay Thompson is shooting roughly 46 percent from 3-point range. There will be plenty of switching going on all night, but the guess here is that Irving spends most of his night on Curry so he is sparred from chasing Thompson endlessly around off-ball screens. That job will go to Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, who can’t let a shooter like Thompson get into a rhythm early. Irving has shown flashes of being able to stick with Curry at points in his career on defense, as seen during the 2016 NBA Finals. He'll need to turn back the clock tonight to give the Celtics a chance.
Can the Celtics disrupt the Warriors shooting juggernaut? Golden State is the best team in the league shooting from the field (51 percent) and 3-point range (41 percent). They’ve got four starters shooting over 38 percent from 3-point range and that’s just flat-out impossible to defend for pretty much any NBA defense, as shown by the Warriors’ streak of domination over the past two weeks (seven straight double-digit wins). The Celtics, however, are the toughest defense in the league, at least on paper, and they do matchup better with the Warriors than most teams in a couple areas. They have the personnel and length to switch in the frontcourt with Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris and Al Horford, which will help as the Warriors stretch the floor. Boston is also a top-4 team in defending the arc (allowing 32.1 percent). Obviously, everyone up-and-down the lineup is going to have to be at Defcon 4 for this one to execute closeouts and properly communicate through screens and switches since the Warriors will push you to your limits on both of those fronts.
Life doesn’t get much easier defending the Warriors bench either. Nick Young (38 percent) is a sniper from 3-point range. Patrick McCaw can hit an open look. David West isn’t afraid to pull up from deep either. Andre Iguodala (18 percent) has been struggling from distance all year so that might be the guy the C’s allow to let it fly the most. With Golden State’s lethal ball movement, someone is going to get open looks, so Brad Stevens is going to have to pick his poison. Hanging tight on the trio of 20-point scorers (Durant, Thompson, Curry) and taking your chances with Iguodala and Draymond Green letting it fly would seem to be the best option.
Can the Celtics expose a potential Warriors flaw? The Celtics have beaten the Warriors twice in the last two regular seasons and came close a third time at the Garden two years ago as well. The names have changed now but the Warriors’ main weakness remains the same: turnovers. They’re in the bottom of the league in turnover rate yet again, and their bigs (Green, Zaza Pachulia, David West) have been especially sloppy with the ball, turning the ball over on a nearly a quarter of their possessions. The C’s have the defensive firepower to put some pressure on these guys and force them into more miscues. That’s going to be a big part of a potential C’s upset formula tonight.
Wildcard: Rebounding and starting big or small for Boston? The Warriors only have a couple threats on the offensive glass (West, Zaza Pachulia). Javale McGee has been outside of the rotation for the most part so he’s not a guy to worry about. The Celtics should be able to limit the Warriors to one chance on most possessions. I’ll be very curious to see if Celtics start Aron Baynes to match up with Pachulia (who plays limited minutes). Otherwise, it’s going to be very hard for Stevens to play Baynes against anyone from the second unit since all of the Warriors bigs can stretch the floor. However, playing Baynes with the starters leaves the Celtics vulnerable in switches in the pick-and-roll against their top talent. Either way, the C’s need to maintain their strong work on the defensive glass collectively and minimize the Warriors’ possessions to give themselves a shot.
Celtics on offense
106.2 points scored per 100 possessions (18)
Pace: 96.6 possessions/game (21)
Four factors
eFG%: .496 (23)
TOV rate: 13.2% (3)
OReb rate: 24.4% (8)
FT/FGA rate: .216 (12)
Warriors on defense
97.8 points allowed per 100 possessions (1st)
Four factors
eFG%: .495 (7)
TOV rate: 13.7% (20)
DReb rate: 76.2% (22)
FT/FGA rate: .198 (15)
What to watch for when the Celtics have the ball:
How engaged the Warriors' defense is: The scary part about Golden State for the last couple seasons? They are winning games with offense but they have the parts to be a top-tier defense whenever they want to be. Draymond Green is a defensive superstar, Durant is a terrific defender with his length at rebounding and contesting shots (2.4 blocks per game) and role guys like Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and West are all very good at mucking things up as well. This is bad news for a Celtic team that has been struggling offensively in various parts of their winning streak. You can’t afford to have offensive lulls against this Warriors team, but Golden State has the tools to make things rough on Boston. With a fully rested (two days off) roster and the national spotlight on, I’d expect a sharp focus from the defending champions.
Another potential hole for the Warriors: We know that turnovers can be their fatal flaw on offense, but defensive rebounding can be a troublesome area as well. Durant and Green lead the way in this area as the top rebounders that play big minutes, but they become vulnerable when Pachulia leaves the floor and they go to small ball. Curry and Thompson are good rebounders for their size but the Celtics have the length up front to get some extra opportunities when the Warriors’ don’t have a true center out there. Older guys like Iguodala and West aren't boarding nearly as well as they did earlier in their career, so the C's athletic wings should try to take advantage of both. Daniel Theis and Baynes have also been monsters on the offensive boards all year, so it’s essential they make an impact in this area when they are on the floor.
Can the Celtics offense survive with the bench unit on the floor? I wrote about their issues yesterday and I’m curious to see whether Stevens will take some proactive steps to try to address the shooting woes from the likes of Smart and Terry Rozier. Whether it’s Morris or Tatum becoming a larger focal point of the second unit or limiting the time Horford and Irving spend on the bench together, the C’s need to keep their offense from flat-lining since they aren’t going to be able to hold the clamps down the Warriors’ defense as well as they have with other opponents.
What needs to happen for the Celtics to pull off an upset:
- Lots of Warriors turnovers
- Rebounding edge on both ends
- Off shooting night from Warriors’ secondary options
- Productive minutes from the bench