Patscap Mailbag: Questions on Bennett, IR compensation and Tom Brady's contract

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[embed]https://twitter.com/LouMerloni/status/930237742553935872[/embed]

Answer: I project the Patriots will not get a compensatory pick for Bennett since they ended up with him. I'm using what happened with Isaac Sopogoa as the precedent: In 2013, he was an unrestricted free agent who signed with the Eagles during the offseason, and in October of that year, the Eagles traded Sopoaga to New England. In the 2014 announcement of the compensatory picks Sopoaga was listed as being signed by the Patriots.

[embed]https://twitter.com/_Mattia_Rizzo_/status/929869295294619648[/embed]

Answer: Both players are on Injured Reserve. Both can start practicing with the team. As of Nov. 16 neither have. Both have spent the required time of eight weeks on Injured Reserve that they could play against the Raiders if the Pats deemed them healthy enough to do so.

[embed]https://twitter.com/APB78_Pats/status/930081765204533248[/embed]

Answer: Go to NFL.Com/scores. Look for the appropriate week. Find the game. Click on GameCenter, and download the GameBook in PDF form. It's best to wait 18 to 24 hours after the game for complete snaps information to be included. Here is the link for the Broncos gamebook.

[embed]https://twitter.com/GregFalco15/status/930151298795700226[/embed]

Answer: The first day that players can be waived is not listed in the NFL calendar. My guess is sometime during the second week of February.

[embed]https://twitter.com/Jrooster49/status/930433522212462597[/embed]

Answer: After the trade deadline, there's no difference.

[embed]https://twitter.com/sidelinesalvos/status/930893487674929157[/embed]

Answer: It is going up, but not as much as the cap is going up.

[embed]https://twitter.com/DRAFTNlK/status/931285489491030016[/embed]

Answer: Yes. I'm predicting the Patriots trade up from the 49ers pick into the first round to draft their quarterback of the future. Why trade up into the first round? To have a fifth-year option at the most important position.

[embed]https://twitter.com/DyloniusFunk/status/931287210275454976[/embed]

Answer: Yes. The Patriots will probably have to choose between Dwayne Allen (2018 cap hit of $5 million) and Bennett (2018 cap hit of $6,412.500). The decision will be made before Bennett's $2 million roster bonus is due in mid-March.

[embed]https://twitter.com/JimVictor19/status/931288903587426304[/embed]

Answer: It's up to Slater. If he does return, expect his 2018 cap number to be around his 2017 cap number -- $1.6 million.

Email Question from David Pham:
Hello Miguel,
Hope you’re doing well. What do you think Brady’s contract and future cap hits will look like after this season? It seems highly doubtful that Brady will play at the $22M cap hit the next two years. Thanks for your insight!

Answer: Expect Patriots to create cap space by extending Brady's current deal by two years.  I project the deal will ultimately look like his 2013 extension, where he received a $30 million signing bonus in return for lowering his salaries in 2013 and 2014.

Current Deal
2018
Salary: $14 million
46-man active roster bonus: $1 million ($62,500 per game)
2016 signing bonus proration: $7 million
$22 million total

2019
Salary: $14 million
46-man active roster bonus: $1 million ($62,500 per game)
2016 signing bonus proration: $7 million
$22 million total

Projected Deal
2018
Salary: $1.5 million
46-man active roster bonus: $1 million ($62,500 per game)
2016 signing bonus proration - $7 million
2018 signing bonus proration - $7 million
16.5 million total ($5.5 million savings)

2019
Salary: $1.5 million
46-man active roster bonus: $1 million ($62,500 per game)
2016 signing bonus proration: $7 million
2018 signing bonus proration: $7 million
$16.5 million total ($5.5 million savings)

2020
Salary: $15 million
46-man active roster bonus: $1 million ($62,500 per game)
2018 signing bonus proration: $7 million
$23 million total

2021
Salary: $15 million
46-man active roster bonus: $1 million ($62,500 per game)
2018 signing bonus proration: $7 million
$23 million total

Email Questions from Bob Bell:
Miguel,
What happens if a team burns through basically all of their salary cap, and then they lose a player -- say someone on the roster retires. Aren't they required to have 53 players on the active roster every week? What happens if they only have 52, but not enough cap room for even a minimum deal?

Answer:
Teams can not use all of their cap space in a year. In 2006 the Patriots ended the season with 76 cents in cap room. Teams would create needed cap space by converting salary into a signing bonus.

Email Question from GinoC
I've been a big fan for years and go by Gino C at BSJ. Lots of conjecture on the possibility of Pats trading Brady instead of Jimmy G. What would have been the cap hit had they dealt him now? What about next season before the draft? It seems substantial as I understand your figures. Do you think that alone would have been a major reason not to deal Brady (before we even get to he's quite possibly better than JG the next 2 plus years.

Answer:
If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady, his 2018 dead money would have been $14 million. The Patriots would have created $8 million in cap space by trading him. Strongly doubt that the $14 million in dead money for Brady was a major reason for the Jimmy Garoppolo trade.

Email Question from Nate Donovan
BSJ subscriber here.
Now that Jimmy G has been traded, do you think that the Pats will franchise Malcolm Butler? If so, do you think that the franchise tag will only be used to put him on the trade market?

Answer:
No. I'd be surprised if the Patriots tag Butler since he would immediately sign the tag guaranteeing himself $15 million. Do the Pats tag Butler so that they can trade him? No, since he can't be traded until he signs the tag and Butler has no reason to sign the tag unless he is happy with his new team's offer.

Email Question from Franklin P Sorrells
Could you provide some clarification on the 2018 cap numbers for Keionta Davis and Andrew Jelks? What are their current statuses on the roster, NFI/IR? Is it possible their cap number can be lowered to the minimum salary of $480,000 or will their cap number be $555,000?

Answer: As of now, the 2018 cap numbers for the duo will be $480,000 (the minimum salary for a player with zero credited seasons). Quoting the Collective Bargaining Agreement: "For purposes of calculating Credited Seasons under this Article only, a player shall earn one Credited Season for each season during which he was on, or should have been on, full pay status for a total of three or more regular season games, but which, irrespective of the player’s pay status, shall not include games for which this player was on: (i) the Exempt Commissioner Permission List; (ii) the Reserve PUP List as a result of a nonfootball injury; (iii) a Club’s Practice or Developmental Squad; or (iv) a Club’s Injured Reserve List." Therefore, the 2017 season will not count as a credited season for Davis or Jelks. Both are on the NFI (Non-Football Injury). Davis can not come back to play for the Patriots while Jelks can. Jelks started to practice on Nov. 7. He must be activated by 4 p.m. on Nov. 28, or he will remain on the NFI list for the season. If Jelks is activated and is on the 53-man roster, his 2018 salary will then be $555,000.

[embed]https://twitter.com/tonygoodrich84/status/931235166869229568[/embed]

Answer: No. The maximum Gronkowski can earn by reaching his incentives is $5.5 million. For more information on Gronk's incentives please, read my weekly incentives tracking report -- you can find my latest report here.

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Answer: I project both the 2018 Patriots' adjusted cap number and their 2018 cap space number every week in my weekly incentives tracking report. You can find my Week 10 report here. Here's my current estimate for the Patriots 2018 cap space number. Please note that since this estimate will change frequently between today and March 14, 2018 — the first day of the new league year -- so I'll answer this question on a regular basis:

League cap: $178,000,000
Prior year carryover: $3,500,000
Adjustment: ($2,100,000)
Patriots adjusted cap: $179,400,000
2018 cap commitment: $168,100,000 (After tendering Ted Karras as an ERFA and signing 10 practice squad players to future contracts, the Patriots should have 58 players signed or tendered for the 2018 season.)
2018 CAP SPACE: $11,300,000

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