Why this baseball offseason may progress slower than others

ORLANDO – If you regard the off-season as a marathon, consider that the GM Meetings,  which wrapped up Wednesday, were merely one of the first mile markers. And more than any recent year, there’s the sense in the industry that things will move slowly this winter.

“This was really about gathering information and continuing to move forward with that,’’ said Dave Dombrowski as he prepared to depart the meetings. “When you come here, you try to get a pulse of everything that’s taken place that involves players. You’re not going to have everything, but I feel like we’re in a real good spot now with things we need to follow up. People know where we stand. I think (we have) a lot more information now than coming into the meetings.’’

But, as usual, things don’t happen in a vacuum.

“Everything has sort of a multiplier effect, because people are waiting to see what happens here one thing) affects (another).  Sometimes you need all of that information before you move forward. I think there’s a sense that moving forward is not quite as rapid as I’ve seen at these meetings in the past.’’

Dombrowski has traditionally been proactive in his off-season moves. In his first year as president of baseball operations with the Sox, he nabbed his two biggest needs (closer Craig Kimbrel and starter David Price) by Dec. 1.

“People say (I have that) reputation, but I’ve also moved slowly in winters, too,’’ noted Dombrowski. “I think you really have to have a pulse every year of what’s taking place. (But) I would never be frustrated (by the slow pace). I’ve gone into January before I’ve made moves at times. ... Every year is different.’’

There are a number of reasons for the expected slow-play nature of this off-season. Among them:

1) The Stanton talks

Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton is the biggest name available on the trade market, but discussions about a possible deal involving him are fraught with complications.

Stanton is the game’s highest-paid position player with nearly $300 million in salary obligations remaining over the next 10 years. Any team interested in Stanton will be taking on an unprecedented amount of money and that’s likely to both complicate and slow the process.

There’s a sense among executives that the Stanton deal – if indeed there is one – will need to take place before teams move on to some free agent bats on the market.

2) The Otani factor

Relatively speaking, signing Shohei Otani could be a relatively modest investment, since he’s not eligible to get into open bidding. Instead, teams will be restricted to using only money remaining in their international bonus pools, ranging from a few hundred thousand to several million.

But before the process can begin in earnest, Major League Baseball must first determine how the posting process is going to work. The current agreement expired on November, and according to Dan Halem of the commissioner’s office, MLB has a tentative agreement in place with Nippon Professional Baseball, but must still get approved by the Major League Baseball Players Association.

Halem said Wednesday the hope is that there’s an agreement in place in early December. That would allow the bidding to begin for Otanai, who holds special allure as someone who wants to both pitch and hit in the Major League Baseball. But since Otani will have a 30-day window to discuss offers with interested teams, his signing will probably be delayed into January. That, in turn, will again grind the gears on the pitching market.

3) Scott Boras’s track record.

Historically, Boras has taken his sweet time in signing some of his biggest clients, hoping for the market to build and build as the winter drags on.

This year, Boras represents Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and J.D. Martinez – arguably, the three best bats in this free agent class.

An executive with another club Wednesday noted that no team was more disappointed than the Red Sox when Martinez switched representation to Boras last month.

“They thought (signing Martinez) was going to be a slam dunk (previously),’’ the executive said.

4) The number of new managers.

Since the end of the season, four teams – the Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers and Nationals – all hired new managers. And the Yankees are still in the process of interviewing prospective managerial candidates.

Along with hiring managers, teams have been busy with filling coaching staffs and other internal matters. And once the managers and coaches are all in place, there are organizational meetings that take place as everyone gets acclimated.

All of that has served to push back the timetable for teams to begin talking trades and evaluating free agents, further delaying the big personnel moves that usually mark each off-season.