Patscap Mailbag 11.02.17: Questions on cash vs. cap, the QB situation, and 2018

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Answer: A team's cap is not equal to its cash spending. Why?

1. Signing bonuses are prorated over the life of the contract. The maximum proration length is five years. Let's use Stephon Gilmore as an example. His $18 million signing bonus only counts as $3.6 million on the Patriots salary cap this year. He received over $23 million this year while his cap number is $8,575,845. In 2018, he's scheduled to receive $8,906,250 in cash. while his 2018 cap number is $12,506,250.

2. Dead money: Because of previously paid signing bonuses, some players are on New England's books for 2017 while they won't receive any cash from the team. For example, Keshawn Martin counts as $300,000 in dead money on the Patriots 2017 cap because of the $600,000 signing bonus he received in January 2016. Martin will not receive any actual cash from the Pats this year

3. Incentives: LTBE (Likely to Be Earned) Incentives count on team's cap even though the player may not earn them. For example, Julian Edelman's cap number includes $500,000 in receptions incentives. He will not earn them.

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Answer: I strongly disagree. Why? Ben's piece focuses on 2018. The Patriots made the decision to trade Jimmy Garoppolo because they felt doing so was in their best long-term interests. Why do I feel this way?

1. Ben presumes that after tagging Jimmy Garoppolo for around $23.5 million that Brady's 2018 cash intake would remain the same at $15 million. I do not. Both the Patriots and their players are well aware of the salary cap pecking order. It is not a coincidence that Chris Hogan's APY (Average Per Year) is less than Edelman's. I can't see the Patriots paying a backup at a key position more than the starter, especially over the long-term. If I'm right, what does it mean? If the Patriots increased Brady's 2018 cash intake by simply increasing his salary, then his 2018 cap number would increase from $22 million. If the Patriots increased Brady's 2019 cash intake via a signing bonus it would have increased his future dead money and/or future cap numbers.

2. According to a 2015 report by Greg, Bob Kraft told Brady it would not be tenable for the team to have a quarterback taking up 18 percent of the salary cap. Brady agreed, and since has signed extensions that were far below his market value. I can't see the Pats years later having Garoppolo taking up a higher percentage of the salary cap in 2018 than Brady ever has.

3. Garoppolo has most of the leverage in the contract negotiations. The franchise tag counts against the cap as soon as it is made. He could wait until right before Week 1 to sign the tag and would not lose a cent, while the Patriots would be carrying his $23.5 million cap number on the books. While Ben may think it wouldn't impact the Patriots 2018 offseason, I do. Why? Believe that it would limit the Patriots to extend players with low 2018 cap numbers (Trey Flowers, Shaq Mason, Jonathan Jones, Hogan, Mike Gillislee) since their extension will likely increase their 2018 cap numbers.

4. Ben's piece ultimately never addresses the end game: how to get Garoppolo signed to a long-term deal when he wants to become a starter now. The QB franchise tag number in 2018 is going to be around $23.5 million. To tag Garoppolo again in 2019 would cost 120 percent of $23.5 million, or $28.2 million. To transition tag Garoppolo in 2020 would cost 20 percent of $28.2 million, or $33 million. To franchise tag Garoppolo for a third time in 2020 would cost 144 percent of $28.2 million, or around $40.6 million. Those would be the numbers that Garoppolo's agent Don Yee should be using to construct a long-term for his client. These numbers would make Garoppolo one of the highest paid players in the NFL after roughly six quarters of playing time. Says here that it's not good value. (Please note that a team can only tag a player three times.)

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Answer: I infer from Mike Reiss' report on Brian Hoyer's deal that the $1.5 million is now fully guaranteed.

[embed]https://twitter.com/JonPypa/status/926073019977682945[/embed]

Answer: Because of the proration of signing bonuses, teams can spend more cash in a year than their adjusted cap numbers. Teams are not allowed to ever go over their adjusted cap number once the League Year begins. A deal that would put them over the cap would not be approved by the league.

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Answer: I am going to go with McClellin and Valentine.

[embed]https://twitter.com/CheyenneSulli14/status/925510325138612224[/embed]

Answer: That was my plan. Now Saturday.

[embed]https://twitter.com/MikeRogers9/status/925513095312789504[/embed]

Answer: Eric Rowe has played 16.9 percent of the snaps. If the Pats continue to average playing 66 defensive snaps a game, he would have to play in 83.3 percent of them to reach 50 percent. I don't see that happening, so the Patriots will be sending the Eagles a 2018 fourth-round pick for Rowe.

[embed]https://twitter.com/Captmike24/status/925510223728480256[/embed]

Answer: Johnson Bademosi can be extended at any time. If not extended by March 14, 2018, Bademosi will become an unrestricted free agent once the 2018 League Year begins on that day.

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Answer: The Patriots can pick up their 2019 options on the 2015 first round duo of Malcom Brown and Phillip Dorsett on New Year's Day. The deadline to do so is May 3, 2018. I expect the Patriots to pick up Brown's option. Will have to see more from Dorsett the rest of the season before I feel the same way for him.

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Answer: I project both the 2018 Patriots' adjusted cap number and their 2018 cap space number every week in my weekly incentives tracking report. (You can find my Week 8 report here.)

Here's my current estimate for the Patriots 2018 cap space number. Please note that since this estimate will change frequently between Thursday and March 14, 2018 — the first day of the new league year -- so I'll answer this question on a weekly basis.

League cap: $178,000,000
Prior year carryover: $3,500,000
Adjustment: ($2,800,000)
Patriots adjusted cap: $178,700,000
2018 cap commitment: $162,700,000 (After tendering Ted Karras as an ERFA and signing 10 practice squad players to future contracts, the Patriots should have 58 players signed or tendered for the 2018 season.)
2018 CAP SPACE: $16,000,000

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