Bedard's Breakdown: Could Patriots' focus on special teams players be catching up with them?

Everyone knows about all the blatant miscues in the Patriots' 33-30 loss to the Panthers on Sunday, especially in a secondary that needs to buy a clue. So let's talk about how the Patriots begin to get things fixed.

Actually, let's talk about why it will be difficult to make amends quickly. And to do that, we need to talk about one number: six.

That would be the number of special teams plays that occurred — between both teams — outside of field goals and extra points on Sunday. Combined, there were six returned punts or kicks between both teams. That's it. There were 127 total offensive plays in the game, so 133 total with special teams. That means those six snaps represented 4.5 percent of the game.

Here's another number: eight.

That would be the number of dedicated special teams players, not including the kicker, punter and long snapper, on the Patriots' roster: Matthew Slater, Nate Ebener, Brandon Bolden, Jordan Richards, Marquis Flowers, Brandon King, Geneo Grissom and Johnson Bademosi. That's not even counting a player like Cassius Marsh (team-leading 77.3 percent of special teams snaps), who should see his defensive responsibilities increase moving forward.

Those are seven players who have no role on offense (two) or, especially for where the Patriots are, defense (six). That's 15 percent of the 53-man roster. When Slater is healthy, that will be 17.4 percent of the 46-man game-day roster that primarily plays only special teams. (For immediate comparison's sake, the Panthers have four such players.)

And the Patriots' army of special teamers got six snaps worth of work on Sunday, thanks to the NFL changes in the kickoff rules.

Sure, that number is a bit of an outlier. But not by much. The Patriots have averaged nine contested special teams plays through four games (36 total). They are on pace for 144 this season. That is not an outlier. It's part of a downward trend due to the NFL wanting kickoffs out of the game for player-safety reasons. Last season the Patriots had 141 plays. In 2012, it was 163 (when the Patriots had three major special-teams players). In 2007, it was 194. In 2002, it was 206.

What I'm saying is this: one of the reasons why Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest coach of all time is because he sees trends years before other general manager and coaches do. Is it possible he might be lagging in this area?

The ramifications of having so many special teams-only players is obvious for this group. The Patriots are having trouble in the secondary and at linebacker, which are usually special teams-heavy areas. It would be great to have enough good competition in those units that it could enable you to replace a Stephon Gilmore or Elandon Roberts for a game or longer.

But with such an emphasis on special-teams production, are there any players capable of replacing or even pushing a starter from that group? Richards failed already to help in a huge area of need: coverage linebacker. Flowers showed some promise as an injury replacement for Roberts against the Panthers, and they might need Flowers to play more.

Anyone else? It sure would be helpful if Richards, King or Bademosi could contribute outside of an injury situation in the secondary.

Doesn't look that's going to happen, and that seems to be a problem.

Is it worth it to be in this situation for six plays a game (Sunday), or nine (for the season)?

Some will point to last season, when they basically had the same group, or at least the same numbers: Slater, Barkevious Mingo, Jonathan Jones, King, Ebner, Bolden, Grissom and Slater. Seemed to work out for that group, considering they won the Super Bowl.

But that neglects two things. First, that defense had a lot more experience than this green group, with Rob Ninkovich, Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, Jamie Collins (half the season) and Logan Ryan. And, secondly, the Patriots defense had an extraordinary amount of injury luck: according to Football Outsiders, they were by far the healthiest defense in the NFL. The 2017 Patriots are already off to a tough start in that area, and they started less experienced in the first place.

So you could make the case that, as opposed to last season when they got lucky, the Patriots are being hurt this season by their special teams-focused approach to team building.

Something to keep in mind.

Here are the positional ratings and game-film notes against the Panthers:

Quarterback (Rating: 4 out of 5)

Overall, Tom Brady was very good in this game, but he did have some inaccurate moments, which contributed to the offense only putting up one touchdown drive (which came following Malcolm Butler’s interception) before the fourth quarter. The play Brady probably most wants to have back came near the end of the impressive opening drive. On first down from the Carolina 31-yard line, the Patriots get exactly what they wanted, a single-high safety, for a high red-area (a little bit outside the normal red zone, but still an area where they have game-planned plays) shot play. Brandin Cooks makes a dynamite move on an out-and-go to dust the cornerback. The safety can't close quick enough to make a play on the ball. But instead of a touchdown, Brady's throw loses steam and doesn't even give Cooks a chance at the ball. I asked two people who know the Patriots' offense who was at fault, and they said Brady just missed the throw. Might have been in his footwork (lead foot goes toward the sideline, not the receiver). The play:


Two plays later, when Brady hit Chris Hogan short of the sticks and the receiver couldn't break a tackle (a la Julian Edelman), Rob Gronkowski was open on the other side of the field and wanted the ball. But can't fault Brady for the decision. Looked like Panthers were playing a trap coverage but blew the coverage, leaving Gronkowski open. Can't do anything about that, and sometimes Brady needs a guy to make a defender miss.


The next drive ended on another unforced error when Brady threw behind Hogan. Gronkowski was open on the post, but Brady elected to throw short to Hogan. It looked to be a case where Brady thought Luke Kuechly would turn and run with Gronkowski as part of Carolina's (Cover) Tampa 2 coverage, but Kuechly stayed with Hogan and then Brady was hoping Hogan would stop and settle in the zone. If you're looking for plays to point to in order to say, "Brady and the Patriots' offense misses Edelman," then these two plays are as good as any. The second play:


Other plays Brady would like to have back: running into a sack when Gronk was available, underthrowing and tossing late to a wide-open Dwayne Allen, and throwing behind Gronk at the goal line with 4:45 left in the second quarter. Outside of that, Brady was pretty good, especially in the second half. Had him for 3 plus plays/5 minus plays in the first half, but an 8/1 ratio in the second. Brady played more of a cat-and-mouse game with Kuechly and the Panthers' scheme than I anticipated. He used a lot of the play clock, which means he wanted to make sure he wasn't going to get fooled by any dummy coverages.

Running backs (3 of 5)

Another week where it's tough to point to anything the backs did poorly, but it's also tough to say they did anything out of the ordinary. Even James White, who caught 10 passes, didn't have a high degree of difficulty as a checkdown option (4.7 average). Mike Gillislee (4.1) and Dion Lewis (4.5) both ran the ball well, but the offense could really use one of them to break a tackle and make a big play -- the longest run by anyone was 16 yards. Gillislee did break two tackles in this game, and it seems like this is building to a big gain very soon.

Receivers (3.5 out of 5)

Outside of Danny Amendola (rightfully called for offensive PI) again being clutch with three catches on the final drive (a touchdown on fourth down), Gronkowski's 43-yard catch and Hogan's touchdown while taking a hit, not a high degree of difficulty. Nice subtle back-shoulder catch on the second play of the game by Gronkowski -- he was hit with a bogus offensive PI call, but he got a call soon after. Hogan needs to break that tackle or find some way to the sticks at the end of the first drive of the game. Some guy that wears No. 11 would have. It's a high bar, but they need to start picking up the slack.

Offensive line (3 out of 5)



Considering the low amount of pressure allowed, and the increased success of the running game, this grade is a little harsh but it's coming from my increasing frustration with watching the porous screen game every week. This week was a low point, as I counted eight missed blocks on screens that really could have popped and given the offense a needed boost. They were obviously a big part of the game plan, all well-timed calls by Josh McDaniels and executed well ... until the end, when Joe Thuney (five missed blocks) and Shaq Mason (three) kept whiffing. I know these blocks are really hard, and linemen blocking smaller and quicker players on the run is a bit like trying to grab a fish in a wet boat. But enough's enough. This has been going on for four weeks now. One example, of a play that had the potential to go to the house:



In order of performance: David Andrews, Nate Solder (nice comeback week), Mason, Thuney and Marcus Cannon, who continues to regress with his technique (and it could be because of his injuries).

DEFENSE

Defensive line (3.5 out of 5)



While the Patriots generated an average amount of pressure (34 percent is average), they again didn't rush with enough discipline against a mobile quarterback and that left some openings for Cam Newton to roam for 44 yards on eight attempts. ... Trey Flowers again played well, but he looked a little gimpy at times trying to chase Newton. He also didn't bang Ed Dickson coming across his face for a 13-yard catch, missed a tackle and had a penalty. Huge forced fumble kept the Patriots from giving up another touchdown ...Lawrence Guy and Malcom Brown are continuing to play better and better together with each passing week that Alan Branch (useless again) gives the Patriots nothing. Nice contract extension. Brown, in particular, was almost immovable in the middle, and owned good Panthers left guard Andrew Norwell all day. ... Conversely, teams are starting to realize that Adam Butler is undersized and should be run at when he's playing defensive tackle. It's been a problem, and he didn't have much impact in this game. ... Deatrich Wise nearly had his signature play, a sack to give the Patriots a chance to win the game, but a penalty wiped it out. Wise was OK overall, but it would be nice for him and his huge wingspan to start batting down some passes. ... Cassius Marsh was solid again except for when he got blown out of his gap to allow Newton easy passage on a third-down jaunt.

Linebackers (2 out of 5)

Not a lot bad out of this group, except Kyle Van Noy giving up a 25-yard pass to Dickson and a passing touchdown in the first half (they were mostly error-free in the second half), but not many plays either for a group that used to be the signature of a Belichick defense. ... Van Noy just isn't athletic enough to do what the team needs. Not his fault. ... If people thought Jamie Collins freelanced and was boom or bust, then Elandon Roberts is the Miles Davis of linebacker improvisation. You never know where he's going to end up on a play, and it's usually not the optimal spot. Another problem for this unit. ... Dont'a Hightower is obviously still working through the knee and, as a result, his conditioning, but he still flashed his dynamic play on a couple occasions. Man, this unit could really use a healthy season out of him. ... Liked what we saw in Marquis Flowers' 22 snaps after Roberts got hurt. He's obviously still learning the scheme (he was constantly checking with Van Noy pre-snap), but his athleticism is eye-catching and sorely needed out of this unit, which doesn't have anyone who can cover a back man-to-man, which is a huge problem if you want to play man as a unit.

Secondary (0 out of 5)

We went over most of this on Sunday night, so there's no need for a rehash. Let's go over what they did well: Malcolm Butler's interception (when Devin Funchess just stopped giving effort, which led to Butler dropping into coverage), Eric Rowe's coverage on that interception, and Stephon Gilmore had a half-stuffed run.

That's it. (OK, Gilmore and Butler did have some nice man coverage when the ball wasn't thrown their way, so they weren't totally inept)

Ranked in order of effectiveness, from good to poor: Duron Harmon, Devin McCourty ... and then everyone else was a great big tub of slop. Butler gave up four big plays. Gilmore gave up four often embarrassing plays, plus the two needless penalties. Patrick Chung gave up a few big plays as well, including this one, as he continues to look off (perhaps injured):



This group needs a dose of confidence and quick, or it could be a really long night in Tampa against an actual offense with multiple weapons at each position.

THREE UP

Tom Brady: Thank goodness we don't have to contemplate where the Patriots would be without his heroics. Terrific second half.

David Andrews: Did a very nice job controlling the game against a Panthers interior line that is one of the league's best.

Trey Flowers: Basically the only impact player on the defensive side in this game, and it wouldn't have been close if he didn't punch that fumble out.

THREE DOWN

Stephon Gilmore: You all have eyes. You all know what happened.

Eric Rowe: Before his injury, got run over by a miniature running back for 7 yards, and missed a huge third-down tackle.

Marcus Cannon: Been a while since he's been on this side of the list. After missing last week, willing to bet it was injury-related. We hope.