Five theories to explain Chris Sale's inconsistency

Watching Chris Sale over the last six weeks has been like watching a pendulum. One good start – like the one a week ago in Baltimore, when he threw eight shutout innings and struck out 13 – has invariably been followed by one like the one he turned in Tuesday night: four homers allowed, eight hits, just five innings pitched.

So what’s the problem? And what’s the level of concern with Sale with the playoffs looming next week?

Here are some theories, rationalizations, and ideas in the wake of the Red Sox’ 9-4 loss to Toronto on Tuesday night:

1. As in the real estate industry, this is about location, location, location.

“I can’t say that there’s been fluctuation with the power or the shape of the secondary pitches or a usage pattern,’’ said John Farrell. “More than anything, it comes down to command. That was the case in Tampa (two starts ago) and a little bit more here tonight. In Baltimore, he was as dominant as he’s been all year, with quality location. So, the common thread is the location and the consistency of it.

“He had some misfires and tonight, they didn’t miss.’’

Indeed, the Jays did not. Josh Donaldson got him twice, with solo homers in the first and third – the first on a slider, the second on a fastball away. In the fifth, Teoscar Hernandez and Kendrys Morales connected for homers.

“I thought he had really good stuff tonight,’’ offered pitching coach Carl Willis. “It just came down to command. And as hard as some of these guys throw, they still have to command it.

2. Familiarity. Or, more to the point, over-familiarity.

Sale is facing teams now for the third, fourth and fifth time this season, since, with the schedule designed as it is, the Sox have been playing a lot of division opponents for the last month or so.

“I think there is familiarity,’’ said Farrell. “He’s been a guy we’ve lined up against divisional opponents. When he’s had a little bit of time gap against a particular team, he’s had the upper hand. But there might be some familiarity.’’

That’s been cited as an explanation for his struggles against Cleveland, which saw him often when Sale pitched in the AL Central. Now, it may explain why AL East opponents are having more success the more they see him.

3. Aggressiveness by Sale is being matched by aggressiveness by the hitters.

Sale is notorious for getting ahead, and Tuesday night, the Jays seemed to jump on him early in the count.

“I don’t think I want to back off of that,’’ said Sale. “You always want to throw first-pitch strikes. It’s always in your favor when you get strike one. But maybe just a little more focus on the location. It ended up being that way tonight. Obviously (that wasn’t) what we were looking for.’’

4. The vagaries of baseball. Or, more colloquially, “That’s baseball.’’

“You can’t have a good day at work every day,’’ said Sale. “Unfortunately, what I do is (magnified) because we’re here and we’re in the thick of it…It just is what it is. You throw some bad pitches that get hit hard. I throw a lot of strikes, but I just have to be a little more careful about where I’m throwing them.’’

5. The dreaded “F” word: fatigue.

“This is our first year with Chris and our first September,’’ said Willis. “I look at the history (with Sale’s September ERA being the highest of any month) and hear of the history of Septembers not being great. I know, by the standards he set in the months coming into September, has there been a little bit of a dropoff?  Yeah.

“But I feel like with the stuff we saw in Baltimore, the stuff we saw tonight – maybe the command was a little off – I think that’s an encouraging sign. I think he’s in a better place this September than in past Septembers.’’

Willis is the first to acknowledge that Sale “isn’t going to be as strong or as fresh as he was in May. But, still, to be able to go out and have the stuff he has, I think he’s still an elite pitcher at this particular time.’’