After three games, five thoughts on the 2017 Patriots

In the interest of avoiding knee-jerk reactions, I’ve waited on making any sort of broad-brush declarations about the 2017 Patriots. But through three games and a 2-1 record, there are some things that are starting to come into sharper focus. With that in mind -- and reminding yourself that it's a long season -- here are five thoughts in no particular order about the state of the team as we near the end of September.



1. Through three games, five guys have played every possible snap for the Patriots: Tom Brady, Shaq Mason, Joe Thuney, David Andrews and Kyle Van Noy. Based on the durability they showed last season when they were all at 90-plus percent, its no surprise to see the interior of the offensive line in this group. And Brady has always been a self-described reps hog, even when it comes to kneel downs. But Van Noy is a bit of a surprise. With Dont’a Hightower in and out of the lineup, the linebacker has been the one who has stepped into the void. And while he’s been overwhelmed at times, his presence has been mostly positive. I don’t believe he’ll go wire-to-wire -- his playing time will likely dip when Hightower returns full-time -- but there’s been more good than bad for Van Noy over the first three games. (If I had to bet on someone playing every snap this year, it would probably be the indefatigable Thuney, who came within a handful of snaps of pulling it off last season.)

2. The Patriots have an explosive offense. Brandin Cooks leads all wide receivers with an average of 25.6 yards per catch, while Danny Amendola (16.4) and Chris Hogan (15.4) are in the top 20 in YPC at their position. In addition, Rob Gronkowski is second among tight ends at 14.9 yards per catch. And while Phillip Dorsett doesn’t have enough chances to qualify among the league leaders, he’s at 22.7 yards per catch. (According to Pro Football Focus, on Sunday, Brady had eight attempts when the ball traveled at least 20 yards in the air and completed five of them for 185 yards and three touchdowns. The 5-185-3 line is  the highest among quarterbacks who played over the first 14 games of Week 3.) Conversely, the Patriots have really struggled in short-yardage situations this season — against the Texans, New England was 0-for-2 on third or fourth and two yards or less. On the season, the Patriots are 3-for-9 in these types of situations. And they’ve also had to settle for two field-goals inside the opponents’ 10-yard line. Asked about it after the game on Sunday, Bill Belichick said simply “there’s a lot of things we can do better.” Whether it’s play-calling, personnel (either up front or in the backfield, where the Patriots are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry) or poor matchups, the short-yardage issues are the sort of thing that needs to be remedied sooner rather than later.

3. Of course, that deep-threat sort of offense — part of which likely took root soon after Julian Edelman went down for the year — would be sustainable with a more consistent performance from the offensive line. When Brady had time to throw against the Texans, he was able to really pick them apart. But pressure from Houston, especially off the edge, made that an occasionally dicey situation. (Greg has a good look here at the pressure Brady faced on Sunday.) The Patriots have left themselves thin at tackle for the time being, and with veteran Nate Solder struggling, the issue has been magnified. A team that relies on the deep ball needs to be able to give the quarterback more time to connect. Like the short-yardage issues, it’s unclear if its personnel, scheme or bad matchups at this point. But it’s something that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.

4. When it comes to the Patriots’ offense, it’s very easy to overlook Amendola. But as one alert BSJ commenter put it, he always seems to make the catch before The Catch. That is to say, he gets the team into position to execute the big plays. That was the case again against the Texans on Sunday, when he had three receptions for 48 yards, none bigger than the 27-yard floater he had to come down with in the fourth quarter to keep the game-winning drive alive. (Two of his three catches came on third down.) Amendola doesn’t get near the recognition he deserves, but there’s a reason why Brady seems to look for him time and again in situations like those: Coming into this year, since the start of the 2015 campaign, Amendola is one of three receivers in the league who has been targeted at least 100 times and can boast of having a catch rate of 75 percent or better. (Michael Thomas and Doug Baldwin are the other two.) He might not be on the field as much as his critics would like, but there’s no question about his ability to come down with the ball in big spots when it’s thrown his way.

5. Trey Flowers is really starting to come into his own as a pass rusher. It wasn’t always perfect against the Texans — those breakdowns in containment will become even bigger issues as they continue this week against Cam Newton and the Panthers. But it’s becoming abundantly clear that between Flowers and Deatrich Wise, an area that some initially believed to be a position of weakness for the Patriots at the start of the season, has turned out OK through the first three games. Flowers has three sacks in three games, and if you go back to last season (including the 2016 postseason), he has 12.5 sacks in his last 15 contests. In addition, according to Pro Football Focus, he ranks second in the NFL among 4-3 defensive ends with 17 total pressures after three games, trailing only Calais Campbell. It's also worth noting that, per PFF, Wise recorded one hit and four hurries and one batted pass on 22 pass rushing snaps. Overall, he now has 12 total pressures (two sacks, five hits and five hurries) on 56 pass rushing snaps this season, leading to a pass rushing productivity score of 17.0, which ranks third in the NFL among 4-3 defensive ends behind Campbell and DeMarcus Lawrence.