The NBA offseason came to a close with a bang this weekend as Carmelo Anthony became the latest big name to be dealt. Shams Charamia of the Vertical was first to report that the All-Star forward had agreed to waive his no-trade clause and trade kicker to facilitate a deal from New York to Oklahoma City. The Knicks will receive Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott and a 2018 second-round pick (via Chicago) in exchange for the 33-year-old small forward.
The move puts an exclamation point on a phenomenal offseason by Thunder general manager Sam Presti. The Massachusetts native took advantage of an underwhelming trade market for stars not named Kyrie Irving (as well as some questionable talent assessment by opposing management) to land Paul George and Anthony for the low price of Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Kanter, McDermott and a second-round pick
It remains to be seen whether Anthony or George will stick around in Oklahoma City beyond this season. Anthony has a player option for 2018-19, while George will become a free agent (along with star guard Russell Westbrook). However, given the low cost to bring both players to the Thunder for the time being, these were both no-brainers for Presti.
It’s actually kind of amazing what Presti has done when you step back and try to assess whether the Thunder gave up any real value for these All-Stars.
Oladipo is a young guard with promise, but he’s also overpaid at $21 million per season for the next four years. Kanter is similarly overpriced as a center ($17.8 million per year) for next two years in a salary cap climate that is flattening out. Sabonis and McDermott are both former lottery picks, but neither has star potential. They don’t project to be much more than role players in their careers (although Sabonis has more upside at his younger age of 21). Combine those players with a second-round pick, and there’s pretty much nothing here the Thunder is going to seriously regret giving up, even if the George/Anthony/Westbrook trio doesn’t last long.
Yes, the Thunder could hypothetically lose all three players next offseason (Anthony could opt of a player option), but why not roll the dice with that combination of talent, particularly if it increases the Thunder’s odds of extending or re-signing Westbrook? Between the talent brought in and the heavy salary burden involved (the Thunder will be paying a lot of luxury tax next year), this is a strong play by Presti to convince Westbrook to stick around for the long haul. These moves should increase OKC’s chances of retaining him, and any movement on that front is what ultimately matters for the franchise.
In the meantime, OKC becomes an intriguing matchup in the top half of the West. With strong role players in Patrick Patterson, Andre Roberson and Steven Adams to flank their All-Star pieces, the Thunder will push for a top-3 seed. I’m still not sure they have the talent/personnel to give the Warriors a legitimate series, but they have a lot more offensive firepower to keep pace now. Anthony is 33 and his best days may be behind him, but he has also never played with talent like this before in the NBA. He should have plenty of opportunities as a third option and will ultimately make the Thunder even more of a must-watch team this year, particularly during crunch-time moments.
What’s the impact of this move on the Celtics and their future picks?
Analyzing this move from a Celtics' perspective, there are several factors to take into consideration. We’ll start with the Knicks, who clearly got worse. Kanter is a solid center, but there is already a logjam up front in the Big Apple with Joakim Noah (suspended for first 20 games of season), Willy Hernangomez, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle O’Quinn.
Kanter will score and rebound, but he’s a defensive liability that will probably only play for 20-25 minutes per game. McDermott is a solid shooter who will help space the floor, but he’s been underwhelming overall since being drafted at No. 11 in the 2014 NBA Draft.
The Celtics play the Knicks four times this year, and even though New York's frontcourt will beat up Boston on the glass, those matchups just got easier on the whole. Keeping Anthony out of Cleveland is probably a good thing from a long-term standpoint for the Celtics (since Anthony’s presence may have increased the odds LeBron James stays in Cleveland after this year).
From a league-wide standpoint, New York still has more talent than the bottom of the East after this deal. I’d still take their roster over the likes of Atlanta and Chicago. On paper, they are more comparable now to teams like Brooklyn, Indiana and Orlando, so they loom as a stronger tanking candidate in the inferior Eastern Conference than they would have with Anthony.
This development can make Celtics fans feel a bit better about the team giving up the unprotected 2018 Brooklyn pick for Kyrie Irving. The odds of that pick falling outside of the top 5 increased with this deal as the Knicks enter the tanking equation with more force.
On the flip side, the odds of the 2018 conditional Lakers pick falling between 2-5 could have taken a hit with the Anthony deal. However, I wouldn’t necessarily downgrade those Lakers pick odds nearly as much as Brooklyn’s. The Lakers are still playing in a loaded conference and they are going to lose a lot of games playing the top 10-11 West teams 3-4 times each. The Knicks have a far easier slate against ugly competition in the bottom half of the East, and they could still easily hit 30 wins. Like the Nets, the Lakers have nothing to tank for. The same can’t be said for the Knicks.
Odds and Ends
- Former Celtic Gerald Green found a home on Friday, agreeing to a one-year non-guaranteed deal with the Bucks. He’ll be competing with the likes of James Young for a roster spot in Milwaukee, but his shooting and instant offense should be a good fit off the bench. I expect him to earn a roster spot.
- Thomas Robinson agreed to a deal with Khimki Moscow in Russia on Saturday, according to European reporter David Pick. The former lottery pick worked out for the Celtics a couple weeks back, and is known as an elite rebounder, but the team ultimately passed on offering him the deal. Boston appears content to head into training camp with just 14 guaranteed contracts at this point.
- Keep an eye on Jahlil Okafor in trade rumors during training camp. Sixers head coach Brett Brown already admitted that the team will continue to explore moving the former No. 3 overall pick to break up a logjam in the Philly frontcourt.
- The Suns made a solid pickup in a salary dump by the Grizzlies this week, taking on sharpshooting guard Troy Daniels and his $3.7 million salary, while getting a second-round pick for their trouble. Daniels is a one-trick pony who actually shot better from 3-point range last year (38.9 percent) than the field (37.4 percent).
