MLB Notebook: Are Astros or Indians a better matchup for Red Sox in ALDS?

With a week to go in the regular season, the Red Sox are unlikely to change their playoff position. They’re about to win the American League East for the second straight season, which will allow them to escape the wild card round, but pit them against one of the league’s two top seeds: the Houston Astros or Cleveland Indians.

Neither will represent an easy opponent. The Astros were the league’s best team in the first half before weathering a mid-season slump. In recent weeks, however, they’ve rebounded nicely and kept pace with the fast-charging Indians.

Cleveland has been a revelation for the last month. Since the Red Sox beat the Indians two straight August 22 and 23, the Indians have gone an incredible 27-1.

The thing about that: four weeks, one loss. That’s a good run in football; in baseball, it’s almost unimaginable.

Heading into action on Saturday, the Indians held a 1.5 game edge over the Astros for the A.L.’s top record, a competition the Red Sox themselves can influence when they host Houston over the final four games of the season.

For now, let’s assume that the race for the league’s best record – and thus, top seed in the playoffs – will take a while to sort out. Which would be the better opponent for the Red Sox?

Let’s compare:

STARTING PITCHING: Cleveland has arguably the best starter in the American League in Corey Kluber. There’s a natural drop-off after that, though Carlos Carrasco is a very solid No. 2. Trevor Bauer would line up as No. 3 and while he’s won 16 games, his 4.41 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are decidedly pedestrian.

Houston, of course, obtained Justin Verlander at the end of August, improving their rotation. But Verlander adds a veteran presence with plenty of post-season experience, he’s not the force he once was. Nor, for that matter, is Dallas Keuchel, who flashed signs of his 2015 self in the first half, but has been ordinary since.

EDGE: Cleveland

OFFENSE: The Indians feature a solid lineup, with few easy outs. But they’re still not getting anything from Michael Brantley and center field has become a black hole for them. They’re a more patient team than Houston, but the Astros have a sizeable advantage when it comes to power, leading the American League in homers and slugging.

EDGE: Houston

BULLPEN:  The Astros have some intriguing weapons, including multi-inning reliever Chris Devenski. They have power arms (and lead the league in bullpen strikeouts). But frankly, they’re no match for the Indians, who have a top closer in Cody Allen and a dependable set-up man in Bryan Shaw. But their true weapon is Andrew Miller, who was arguably their most valuable player in last year’s deep playoff run. Miller has missed time with knee troubles and he’ll have to be managed carefully to keep him healthy. But he remains Cleveland’s ‘X factor.’’

EDGE: Cleveland

DEFENSE: To the degree that “old school’’ defensive numbers can be trusted, the Indians have committed the fewest errors in the American League.  That surehandedness counts for something, but the advanced metrics also favor them when it comes to defensive runs saved and range factor, the Indians are clearly superior with 33 runs saved. By contrast, the Astros are in the red at -12.

EDGE: Cleveland

OVERALL: No one would dismiss a team that is going to win close to 100 games as ordinary. The Astros are good and have essentially led their division from wire-to-wire. But the Indians are clearly the superior team, especially given how well they’ve played for the last month.

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Friday’s announcement by the Detroit Tigers that Brad Ausmus won’t return to manage the Tigers in 2018 is sure to set speculation in motion about where Ausmus lands next, with Boston being a potential landing spot.

John Farrell has a contract that runs through 2018 and is on the verge of winning his second straight A.L. East title and third in five seasons with the club. That alone should bring with it some job security, but the Sox’ early exit from last year’s playoffs has him sitting on a seat that is, at the very least, lukewarm.

Farrell has never been viewed as a great in-game strategist, and a number of embarrassing miscues this season (trying to make a pitching change in New York that was disallowed in New York and batting out of order against the Orioles at Fenway) have only advanced that narrative.

Ausmus, of course, was hired by current Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski after the 2014 season. The two worked together until early August 2015, when Dombrowski himself got fired. Dombrowski was said to be impressed with Ausmus’s managerial ability and he still views him positively.

The general consensus is that Farrell needs to get the Red Sox to the ALCS to save his job and not even two straight playoff appearances will be enough for him to return if he can’t get the Sox past the Division Series. With either Houston or Cleveland as first-round opponents, that will be a tough order.

For someone who’s been in the game for 40 years, Dombrowski doesn’t appear to have a long list of acolytes to whom he could turn if he wanted to make a change. In fact, in his last 12 years as either GM or president, Dombrowski has hired just two managers: Jim Leyland and Ausmus.

Ausmus didn’t win much in Detroit, though he did finish first in 2014. After that, the Tigers finished fifth, second and fourth. Ironically, Ausmus was left to manage a core group that, under Dombrowski, had aged, with the farm system depleted for short-term gain.

Ausmus has plenty of New England ties. He grew up in Connecticut, graduated from Dartmouth and at one point, owned a house on the Cape.

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It figures to be an interesting off-season in Baltimore, where the Orioles will try to rebuild after going from wild-card entrant to second-division status in the span of a year.

Two key players – closer Zach Britton and third baseman Manny Machado – will be heading into their free agent years in 2018.

The expectation is that the Orioles are holding out hope that they can keep Machado, but will be willing to listen on Britton.

That much is predictable, for a couple of reasons.  First, it makes more sense to have Machado be the face of the franchise. He’s an everyday player, is a Gold Glove-caliber defender and an impact bat in the lineup. It’s far easier to have him be the piece around which the Orioles are built. And as dominant as Britton has been, closers traditionally aren’t centerpieces and they can be more easily replaced that lineup lynchpins like Machado.

Second, the O’s tipped their hand when they got pretty far down the road at the trade deadline in discussions with Houston about Britton before the deal collapsed, reportedly over some concerns the Astros had with Britton’s medicals.

Exactly how much value Britton will have this winter is another matter altogether. He’s had some forearm concerns, which will only further limit what the O’s can expect in return for him. Those in search of a precedent might look at the deal Kansas City made in sending Wade Davis to the Cubs last winter.

Like Britton, Davis had performed at a truly elite level, had battled some arm injuries and had a year of control remaining. The Royals got outfielder Jorge Soler, a once high-end prospect who has since been a huge disappointment.

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During his career, Derek Jeter displayed an uncanny knack for maintaining a pristine reputation. Bad PR? Leave that to Alex Rodriguez and others, who never managed to avoid bad publicity the way Jeter did. Think of it: Jeter played 20 seasons in New York as the shortstop and leader of the most iconic franchise in sports and was almost never the subject of negative media coverage.

But before he’s even been approved as part of the Miami Marlins new management group, Jeter has already stepped into a mess that is entirely self-created.

Jeter decided not to retain advisors Andre Dawson, Tony Perez, Jeff Conine and Jack McKeon going forward. As a new owner, that’s his right, of course, a point on which even Dawson and McKeon agreed.

But wary of blowback he might receive for dismissing the four, Jeter ordered team president David Samson to do the dirty work for him. Samson himself won’t be retained by the Jeter group either, making the whole thing even more awkward.

Jeter may well find that his pristine reputation may be difficult to transfer to south Florida. What few Marlins fans exist aren’t in thrall to Jeter for his accomplishments and championship rings won in New York.

Dawson and Perez are Hall of Famers who’ve come to be known as members of the Marlins franchise. McKeon was the manager of the 2003 World Series winners in Miami while Conine was an original member of the expansion franchise, spent eight seasons in uniform, was part of both championship teams and is known as “Mr. Marlin.’’

And if Jeter thinks this backlash is bad, wait until he trades Giancarlo Stanton this off-season – which he almost certainly will be forced to do because of payroll concerns.