There are no unknowns here. The Patriots and Texans are cousins through coaching and philosophy. This will be the fourth meeting between two teams in less than two years, and they conducted joint practices and played in the preseason last month.
There are no surprises in schemes. They use many of the same plays on both sides of the ball. Both sides have talent, but the big difference, as always, has been at quarterback. Bill O’Brien is still searching for his Tom Brady. He could be waiting a while, or resuming his search with another team after this season.
Here is the scouting report on the Houston Texans (1-1) gleaned through film study, my personal experience with the Texans, and discussions with three NFL scouts:
OFFENSE
Scheme
Nothing new here on both sides of the ball, as the Texans are basically Patriots South with former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien directing the offense as head coach after parting ways with offensive coordinator George Godsey, another former Patriots assistant. Quarterbacks coach Sean Ryan and offensive assistant Pat O’Hara have combined to assist O’Brien in formulating the gameplan. The scheme is basically a carbon copy of what the Patriots do, with the same alert system as New England. At the end of the 2015 season, I spent most of the week with the Texans offensive coaches. You can read that story here.
Quarterbacks
After losing the camp competition to veteran Tom Savage, first-round pick Deshaun Watson (6-foot-2, 221 pounds, 4.68 in 40-yard dash) took over at halftime of the opener and then defeated the Bengals last week. Watson has completed 57.4 percent of his passes with one touchdown, one interception and a 68.3 rating. He’s been sacked seven times. Watson is talented, a good athlete and can make plays, but he’s got a long ways to go to be a legit NFL quarterback. He’s got a quick release and strong arm, but his mechanics are inconsistent, which can cause him to spray the ball all over the stadium. He scored on a 49-yard scramble against the Bengals. “He has a tough time moving the ball down the field if you take his legs away from him,” said an AFC scout. “Long motion. Good leader.”… Savage (6-foot-4, 228 pounds) is a slow-footed pocket passer, but knows the offense well.
Receivers
Starts and ends with the exceptional DeAndre Hopkins (6-foot-1, 214 pounds, 4.46 40). Not the fastest player, but has a huge catch radius thanks to his large hands and long arms. He’s open even when he’s not -- not a gamebreaker, but a chain mover with exceptional body control. “He’s not the same guy, looks a little disinterested at times,” said an AFC scout. “I think all those QBs took a toll. And he doesn’t have much around him.” … Braxton Miller (6-foot-1, 201 pounds, 4.46) looked to be an instant impact player last year as a rookie but an injury slowed that down. He’s the No. 2 and has just 17 catches in 12 games. … Speedster Will Fuller has been ruled out with a collarbone injury. … Bruce Ellington (5-foot-9, 197 pounds, 4.52) impressed in the preseason to earn a spot and can catch some tough balls over the middle. He missed last week with a concussion … Jaelen Strong, who burned Malcolm Butler for a touchdown in the preseason, was released by the team and claimed by the Jaguars. … Andy Jones is a former Cowboys practice squad player who has already been waived once by the Texans. … Tight end Ryan Griffen can make some plays on the move in the offense, but isn’t a danger. Stephen Anderson should be back from injury.
Offensive line
“This group is awful,” said an NFC scout. “Only the center is a player.” Starting LT Duane Brown has been holding out since training camp started. Starting RG Jeff Allen injured an ankle in the opener and isn’t expected to play. Here’s how they will lineup:
LT Chris Clark (6-foot-5, 305 pounds): Was poor in Denver, and he hasn’t been much better in Houston. Gets moved around way too easily.
LG Xavier Su’a-Filo (6-foot-4, 310 pounds): Will always be known as the player GM Rick Smith drafted instead of Derek Carr. Inconsistent. Plays well at times with some power, but slow feet.
C Nick Martin (6-foot-5, 300 pounds): Had the look of a perennial Pro Bowler before an injury cut short his rookie campaign. Strong, rugged and smart. Anchors this unit.
RG Greg Mancz (6-foot-4, 300 pounds): A center by trade, injuries have forced him here. Struggles sustaining in the run game but decent pass protector.
RT Breno Giacomini (6-foot-7, 320 pounds): The Malden native continues to stick around at age 32 after stops in Green Bay, Seattle and with the Jets. Has always looked the part but doesn’t think quickly on his feet, and can be overaggressive. Good for a penalty a game.
Running backs
Talented and deep group, led by former Dolphin Lamar Miller (5-foot-11, 218 pounds, 4.40). He’s always run with great balance and vision, and can be physical at the point of attack. … Top backup Alfred Blue (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) has been out since training camp with a high ankle sprain and could return. His well-rounded game would boost the attack. … In the interim, he’s been passed by D’Onta Foreman (6-foot, 233, 4.46), who has 44 yards on 13 carries. Foreman is a load and doesn’t go down easily on first contact. Has surprising speed. … Tyler Ervin (5-foot-10, 180 pounds, 4.40) has played over 50 percent of the snaps because he’s been used at receiver at times to fill the injury gaps. Very quick and a home-run hitter who the Texans will try to get into space and into a mismatch on a linebacker. … Dartmouth High and UConn product Jordan Todman provides depth. … Fullback Jay Prosch is solid and will see time.
DEFENSE
Scheme
After being coordinated by former Patriots DC Romeo Crennel, the unit is directed by former Patriots outside linebacker Mike Vrabel, with an assist from Crennel. Similar to the Patriots’ scheme, but much more aggressive in terms of pressure and coverage looks.
Defensive line
Good group is led the exquisite J.J. Watt (6-foot-5, 290 pounds, 4.84) who still knows no peer among interior players in the league. Will be lined up anywhere on the line, and he can’t be blocked by one player. That being said, he doesn’t look quite as explosive as previous years after a back injury. … D.J. Reader (6-foot-3, 346 pounds) is a country-strong nose tackle that gets plenty of push up the field. … Joel Heath (6-foot-5, 293 pounds, 5.02) went from college free agent to starter last year and was immediately back in the starting lineup once he returned from injury in camp. Beat out Christian Covington (6-foot-2, 290 pounds, 5.10), who is no slouch as a player in his own right. Can shed blockers and provide a pass rush.
Linebackers
In experience and communication, this group is suffering after longtime starter ILB Brian Cushing was suspended for 10 games for PEDs (again). But physically, they might be better off because it gets second-round pick Zach Cunningham (6-foot-3, 234 pounds, 4.68) on the field more. He’s the coverage linebacker this group has lacked in recent years, and he can fly from sideline to sideline. Undisciplined, but he made the Texans much faster. … Everyone knows about LOLB Jadeveon Clowney (6-foot-5, 266 pounds, 4.53) the freak first overall pick in 2014 who is a terror as long as he’s healthy and on the field. Great against the run, but will get undisciplined in rushes. … ROLB Whitney Mercilus (6-foot-4, 261 pounds, 4.68) may be the best player on the defense pound for pound. Made a huge leap last season and the coaches will put him in position to make plays, even over the center. Fast, strong, competitive. You name it, he’s got it. … ILB Benardrick McKinney (6-foot-4, 246 pounds, 4.66) hits like a Mack truck but is slow of foot and his eyes will get him into trouble. … Undrafted Dylan Cole (6-foot, 235 pounds) splits time with Cunningham and veteran Brian Peters (6-foot-3, 218 pounds).
Secondary
This unit hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer in 31 straight games, including the postseason, but they’re dealing with serious injury issues. … RC Jonathan Joseph (5-foot-11, 190 pounds, 4.31) is still among the best corners in the league but he’s dealing with a shoulder injury. He’ll play. Tough, physical and has rare makeup speed. … LC Kevin Johnson (6-foot, 188 pounds, 4.48) is a good player but has consistently battled injuries, and is likely out with a knee. Kareem Jackson (5-foot-9, 196 pounds, 4.47) will take his place and is competitive. Doesn’t play the ball well in the air. … The well-traveled Marcus Burley (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) will be the nickel. Feisty, but not that talented. … The safeties, Andre Hal and Corey Moore, are fast and unafraid of contact. They do a good job executing the Texans’ complex coverages. Eddie Pleasant plays linebacker in dime situations.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Veteran punter Shane Lechler is still among the league’s best directional punters. Ka'imi Fairbairn won the kicking competition over veteran Nick Novak. Fairbairn is 2-for-2 on field goals this season. The coverage and return units, coordinated by former Patriot Larry Izzo, are terrible. Ervin returns punts and kicks.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
- Block Whitney Mercilus: The Patriots have showed they can handle Watt and Clowney since they like to live on the edges. They had a difficult time stopping Mercilus (one sack, two more QB hits) when he lined up over center David Andrews in Houston’s diamond pressure package. The backs may have to get involved this time.
- Match up the RBs on McKinney: The Patriots threw touchdown passes to Dion Lewis and James White in the playoff victory over the Texans, and that should continue if the Patriots decide to use their quicker backs on earlier downs. If they wait for passing situations, the Texans now have some speed at linebacker.
- Don’t throw at Jonathan Joseph: Like the Patriots, the Texans often use their pressure calls to direct a pass in a certain direction. The Texans like to funnel passes to Joseph, but Brady shouldn’t take the cheese. Find Kareem Jackson and Marcus Burley, and make your living there.
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- Keep Deshaun Watson in the pocket: The Texans will be challenged to score many points in this game, unless Watson is allowed to keep drives alive with his feet. This will be a huge test for the young players up front, namely Deatrich Wise and Adam Butler. No matter how tempting it may be to try for the sack, the Patriots will win this game going away if they have zero sacks, zero QB hits but force Watson to throw 28 times from between the tackles. The edge players can’t rush past
- Keep Deshaun Watson in the pocket: Seriously, it’s that important.
- Make Watson throw to someone other than DeAndre Hopkins: This is a no-brainer, and something totally in the Patriots’ wheelhouse. Wouldn’t mind seeing Stephon Gilmore earn his $13 million by taking Hopkins one-on-one, but it will probably be Eric Rowe with safety help.
BEDARD'S PICK
Line: Patriots by 14. O/U: 44. Season: 1-1, 1-1 ATS.
Patriots won’t look as clean on offense this week, and that’s fine. Not every game is an oil painting, even for Tom Brady. But I have a hard time seeing how the Texans put up many points.
Pick: Patriots 27, Texans 10.