Examining lineup possibilities, Part 2 (Irving era)

The Celtics underwent a pretty significant roster overhaul during the offseason, particularly for a team that won 53 regular season games in 2016-17. With ten new players in the fold, Brad Stevens will have to experiment with a variety of new faces in the rotation once training camp kicks off later this month. One of the first riddles the coach will have to solve: What will the starting lineup be?

There are a lot of possibilities to consider, and I’ve already started to analyze some of the more obvious choices that Stevens will consider. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll continue to look at the pros and cons of each grouping and take a stab at just how likely we are to see each on opening night in October. You can check out the first lineup (featuring Marcus Smart) I examined here. Onto part 2:

Smallball lineup with Jaylen

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Jaylen Brown

SF: Gordon Hayward

PF: Marcus Morris

C: Al Horford

Potential positives

Wing defenders everywhere: Opposing offenses would regularly try to take advantage of Boston’s undersized backcourt in mismatches last season with varied success. That issue would fade away with this lineup, as Brown (6-foot-7), Hayward (6-foot-8) and Morris (6-foot-9) would be an ideal trio that could handle all sorts of matchups and switches across the 2-4 spots. It’s highly likely that Brown would spend some time guarding opposing point guards too in this group (to take some pressure off of Irving), but it would be hard for an opposing team to find a size mismatch.

"Hiding" Brown with the starters: The bench unit is already going to be loaded with youth even if the 20-year-old Brown gets the starting nod. Playing the former No. 3 pick with a better overall lineup should not only help his development but would also create a better balance between the two units. Marcus Smart can spend more of his time at the point with the bench (where he’s a better fit offensively), while Brown will get better scoring opportunities and more open looks when surrounded by Boston’s best offensive options. Brown has already proven he can rise to the challenge in this setting, as shown in his splits from last season:

As a starter: 24.7 mpg, 45.9% FG, 40.4% 3-pt, 10.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 TO/G (20 games)

As a reserve: 14.7 mpg, 45.1% FG, 30.1% 3-pt, 5.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.8 TO/G (58 games)

Who is ready to run? One thing the Celtics didn’t do enough of last season was getting out in transition to try to produce some easy offense. This small-ball style lineup has five guys that are ready and willing to run the floor. Whether it’s Horford corralling a rebound and dribbling it up himself or Brown streaking down the wing past defenders, this group has the potential to create quick points for each other on the break, and all of them can knock down an open 3-ball in transition.

Potential negatives

Defensive rebounding: Having more size on the wings will help in this department, but there is just no getting around the fact that a Morris/Horford frontcourt will be subpar on the defensive glass. A lot of pressure would fall on Brown and Hayward to try to pick up the slack for the bigs, and Brown did show some progress on the defensive glass with his rebounding rate as his rookie season progressed. Still, against big men like Tristan Thompson, Jonas Valancunias and Marcin Gortat across the East, the C’s would get their butts whupped on a regular basis.

Will Jaylen be consistent enough to start? It’s an issue for any 20-year-old in any walk of life really, but the pressure is magnified on a 50-plus win team. Brown is going to have to regularly deal with tough assignments on the defensive end if he starts, and while he has the physical tools to handle them, his minutes were often cut short last year because of mistakes. That’s natural for any NBA rookie, but it became a point of focus more in Boston when the competition for minutes was intense on a deep bench. Brown improved as the season went on, but he was even kept out of the rotation for the majority of the Bulls series (after some defensive issues in the first two games) before redeeming himself against the Wizards and Cavs. Has he come far enough to earn Stevens’ trust as a starter? He’ll have to prove it during training camp.

Limited wing size off the bench: Stacking the starting lineup with the Brown/Hayward/Morris trio leaves the bench unit looking mighty thin behind them when it comes to size on the wings. The backcourt reserves are on the smaller size (Shane Larkin/Terry Rozier/Smart) while the other potential wing reserves are more 4s than 3s (Jayson Tatum/Semi Ojeleye/Guerschon Yabusele/Daniel Theis) from a skillset standpoint. Stevens could stagger his rotations in a way to avoid this issue (i.e. keep one of the wing starters on the floor at most times), but the balancing act could be an issue to consider for the head coach when putting together his starting five.

Will we see it opening night?

From a pure talent and matchup standpoint, this is one of the best lineups for the Celtics. Stevens needs to answer a number of questions though before rolling with it. Does he want to subject Horford to playing 25-plus minutes at center every night? Outside of that, it comes down to Brown’s consistency in training camp. If he shows he’s ready for a bigger role, the coaching staff could let him wreak havoc with the starters. If not, Smart seems like the obvious fallback at the 2.