I’ve heard all the excuses about why Malcolm Butler wouldn’t start against the Saints, with the leading reason being (and I initially gave credence to this on Sunday until someone slapped me) the Saints have a lot of big receivers and Butler (5-foot-11) is smaller than both Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe (both 6-foot-1).
Yeah, that was wrong. What we’re looking at here right now (injuries could change things, and have in the past), is a good old-fashioned Bill Belichick phase-out of Butler.
Let me explain.
Sure, it’s true New Orleans has, in descending order of effectiveness, some tall receivers: Michael Thomas (6-foot-3), Brandon Coleman (6-foot-6), and then Ted Ginn (5-foot-11 but plays bigger with long arms and leaping ability) and Tommylee Lewis (5-foot-7). Let’s put aside the fact, for now, that only Thomas is decent and go with the height theory.
On the first play of the game, the Saints trotted out Thomas and Coleman. Gilmore lined up opposite Coleman, and Rowe was across from Thomas. So far, so good.
On the next play, Lewis entered the game. If the Patriots were truly playing matchups by size, Butler would have taken Lewis. He didn’t. Gilmore stayed on Coleman, Rowe had Lewis and Butler matched up with Thomas.
That’s pretty much the end of the discussion, but if you needed more evidence, here is a chart for the 15 first-half snaps when the trio of cornerbacks were on the field together. Again, if it was a size thing, you’d expect to see Butler on Ginn and Lewis most of the time. Instead, he usually went against Thomas (66.7 percent).
Butler wouldn’t speak after the game (wonder why?), but Rowe did say that the cornerbacks just played by position, there weren’t specific matchups with receivers. Those numbers bear that out, and so does the film. With all three in the game and when the Saints had receivers spread across the field, Butler played right corner, Gilmore left, and Rowe played inside.
That’s what you call a reduced role for Butler. The guy goes from playing 99 percent of the snaps the two previous seasons to 75 percent (it would have been less had Rowe not gotten hurt and limited to 52 percent) just because the coaches want to get a closer look at other players (another theory)? No, that doesn’t happen. If Butler is clearly the best player in the coaches eyes (or, they just gave him $13 million a season in Gilmore’s case), he’s starting and playing a majority of the snaps. The Patriots would only reduce Butler’s role if they were starting to believe Rowe was the better player. And, now, with Jonathan Jones’ continued ascension, how long before they think the team would better off without Butler altogether and look to trade him before the Oct. 31 deadline? As always, those things depend on the health of the team, and we’re not even sure if Rowe is healthy.
The better question is, why are the Patriots doing this to Butler, who has basically been the model player his three-plus seasons in New England?
Has his play slipped? Maybe a little, but we’ve certainly seen a lot worse around here in recent years. And Butler’s earned the right to be given a little slack.
Is his contract situation causing him to be a bad teammate? I highly doubt that, but would anyone begrudge Butler for being a little ticked off that he just played a team that would have paid him $10 million a year but the Patriots wouldn’t agree to a deal, and New England forked over $13 million to an outsider in Gilmore who’s never even sniffed a playoff game in Buffalo? I’d be ticked off too, and maybe I wouldn't go above and beyond like I normally do in terms of film study and other game preparation. And, in that case, it would certainly be in the Patriots’ right to get rid of Butler, or send a message to him.
We saw this last year with Jamie Collins, who went from playing all the snaps in the first four games (not well at times) to 82.5 percent, 89 percent and, finally, 61 percent before the Patriots determined he was beyond saving and traded him to Cleveland.
Collins was in a contract season and had turned down an extension from the Patriots that, as usual, required the player to give up money for security before the end of their contract (Patriots usually only pay top dollar when a player's contract has expired and, faced with the reality of not having an important player, give in — see Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins and Devin McCourty).
Butler is in the same situation. You know who else was there a few years ago? Wes Welker. In 2012, Welker wouldn’t take the Patriots’ modest offer with security and then signed his franchise tag for $9.5 million, which probably made Belichick want to vomit ($10 million for a slot receiver?!). After playing 90 percent of snaps in 2011, Welker opened ’12 with just 62.7 percent against the Titans. Some guy named Julian Edelman saw an uptick with 34 percent. Then, in Week 2 against the Cardinals, it went to another level (from my Globe column that day):
Edelman played 92.6 percent of the snaps (75 of 81).
Not only did Edelman start the game (the only time Welker didn’t start last season was against Dallas when Deion Branch got the nod) with the opening personnel grouping of Stevan Ridley, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Lloyd, Welker didn’t enter the game until the fourth play — after Hernandez was injured. And the first two passes of the game (Tom Brady’s interception, and a bubble screen) were plays that targeted Edelman.
And the most irrefutable evidence about the Patriots’ plans for Welker came in the “12” personnel of one back, two tight ends, and two receivers. As long as Gronkowski and Hernandez are healthy, this is the Patriots’ base personnel grouping.
The Patriots played 15 snaps of “12” personnel. Edelman played 13 of them as the No. 2 receiver to Lloyd. Welker played two. It used to be the other way around. The four other plays Edelman came off the field for, had two-back, two-tight end sets.
If Hernandez wasn't injured, you really have to wonder how much Welker would have played in the game. He clearly was not part of the game plan going in.
- Tom Brady: On fire and in complete control again, at least for a half. Team took its cue from him.
- Deatrich Wise: Even the founding member of the Wise Fanclub was surprised to hear that Sean Payton mentioned Wise in the CBS meeting. High praise, but I want to see him against better competition. Great start.
- Rob Gronkowski: Wasn't perfect, but what a difference he makes. And the Saints were mugging him all day too, just like the Chiefs. Welcome to L.A.E., Gronk: Life After Edelman.
- Patrick Chung: The good news is, Chung will have a game like this and then he's on point for the end of the season. The fear is, he's getting old overnight. He's 30 with a lot of miles.
- David Andrews: Had some issues with power and strength, which will happen with an undersized center.
- Nate Solder: Something's not right with him. Hope it's just rust, but he's played hurt for the team and looked bad before.