Examining lineup possibilities, Part 1 (Irving era)

The Celtics had already completed a pretty significant roster overhaul this offseason when I started the lineup possibilities series last month at the Boston Sports Journal. Incredibly, two likely members of that starting lineup (Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder) were shipped off to Cleveland as part of the return for Kyrie Irving, a profound change that rendered my previous lineup analysis largely moot. Selfishly, it also made me very thankful I had only covered two potential groupings in the series thus far.

In any case, the coast seems clear (seriously Danny, no more trades before training camp) to continue with our analysis, and the lineup options for Brad Stevens appear a bit more defined now with Crowder out of the equation. There are still a number of combinations for Stevens to weigh, but the volume of them has been sharply reduced.

Before we go any further, let’s take a look at a few definites we can pencil in as we start to examine the possibilities.

Three spots in the starting lineup are set. I’ll let you guess which, but spoiler alert: they’ve all been All-Stars.

That means we’ve hypothetically still got two spots up for grabs here as we enter training camp. In the backcourt, I’d put Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown as potential starters at shooting guard, while Aron Baynes or Marcus Morris will be battling for minutes besides Al Horford up front. Which direction Stevens will go is not yet clear (although Zach Lowe of ESPN.com reported earlier this month that the Celtics have been leaning towards starting Horford at center). With that in mind, let’s start to break down one of the new options.

The “Smart” lineup?

PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Gordon Hayward
PF: Marcus Morris
C: Al Horford

Potential positives

Smart takes a lot of defensive pressure off Irving: With Avery Bradley now in Detroit, Smart is now clearly the most valuable defender in the Celtics backcourt. Like Isaiah Thomas, Irving has never been known for his defense, so pairing him up with a maniacal defender like Smart will make life easier for the Celtics’ new point guard right away. The All-Star can be hidden (like Thomas was) with less vulnerable matchups while Smart (in his slimmed frame) can do his best to chase around point guards or limit scoring 2s from getting going too much. Chances are Smart is going to be playing 30-plus minutes a night anyway, so why not get him out there early with Irving to try to build a better rapport immediately?

Switchability: Outside of Irving, there are a lot of people in this lineup that can handle a number of different positions. Smart can guard four positions, Morris and Hayward can guard three, and Horford is one of the best switching bigs in the league. Just as importantly, there’s a lot of strength and size with Smart at the two, an area the Celtics were looking to upgrade during the season. When opposing offense puts pressure on the Boston defense to switch with a group like this, there won’t be many mismatches to find (outside of Irving). Whether it’s guarding Russell Westbrook or Kristaps Porzingis, Smart has shown he’s capable of doing it all, and inserting him into the rest of this starting five would make the Celtics defense an effective group (at least on paper).

Ball Handlers everywhere: We all know that Irving is looking forward to running the show in Boston at the point, but it’s a valuable weapon in today’s NBA to have multiple ball handlers on the floor. Irving and Hayward are clearly capable of creating their own shot, but an Irving/Smart backcourt could be incredibly dangerous from a transition standpoint for Boston. Both guys could look to push the ball up the floor quickly off of defensive rebounds and take advantage of a mobile set of bigs in Morris and Horford. The Celtics were heavily reliant on scoring in the halfcourt last season, but that’s a stat that could change with this grouping.

Potential negatives

Spacing concerns? This is going to be an issue for Smart whenever he’s not the primary ball handler in a lineup. After his 28.3 percent shooting mark from 3-point range last season, opposing defenses are going to be sagging off of him, essentially begging him to fire up bricks during Boston’s half-court sets. Brad Stevens will surely try to use Smart certain ways to avoid this probable scenario, but his presence is still likely to clog up the floor a bit more when he’s at the off-guard. The overall complexion of this lineup (with spacing bigs up front) would help to keep things spread on the whole, but Smart’s shooting (particularly above the breaks) will remain an issue until he proves otherwise.

Defensive rebounding: Amir Johnson wasn’t a good defensive rebounder last year at the 5, but things could actually get worse with Morris at the 4 and Horford at the 5. Horford’s rebounding numbers have been regressing with his age, while Morris has never been good on the glass for his size. His rebounding rates look worse than they actually are (since Andre Drummond would snatch up so many boards in Detroit), but his career defensive rebounding rate (14.0) is worse than a guy like Crowder who is a couple inches shorter than him. Smart and Hayward are solid on the glass for their positions, but they wouldn’t be able to cover for Boston’s deficiencies up front with this group. Poor rebounding is a sacrifice the Celtics were willing to make in past seasons. We’ll see if that changes in 2017-18.

The loss of Smart’s versatility with the bench: Stevens spent large chunks of last season keeping Smart with the bench unit, even with Bradley sidelined, in order to keep Smart’s minutes under control. With the young guard serving as a leader for the bench unit in a swiss-army type role, defending so many different spots, Stevens liked him keeping that role while sending out a less experienced player (Jaylen Brown) with the starting group.

“Smart sitting the first six minutes, he’s going to play a lot of the last 42,” Stevens said last February after starting Brown over Smart. “And that’s just the way it’s going to be. So I think (sitting the first six) does help keeping his minutes at an appropriate level.”

Would Stevens trust a bench unit with so many young players on the wings (Brown, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum) or would the head coach prefer a more defensive presence to anchor that group? My guess is that question will be strongly debated by the coaching staff as they weigh Smart’s value as a full-time starter.

Verdict: Will we see it opening night?

If I had to peg a lineup as the Vegas favorite for opening night, this one would probably be it. The balance it provides is nice on both ends of the floor and it makes the starting unit more imposing defensively than other potential lineups. With that said, it’s certainly not an overwhelming favorite and the pieces still need to fit together on the court in training camp. With the vast collection of bigger centers in the East, this group will need to prove it can hold its own rebounding to earn the starting nod together every night.