How would potential lottery reform impact the NBA and Celtics?

The possibility of lottery reform has loomed over the NBA for several years now, in large part due to the blatant tanking strategy used by former Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie for several years in Philadelphia before his departure last season.

With more details beginning to emerge about the plan that commissioner Adam Silver is championing to reduce tanking incentives, the time feels right to take a closer look at these potential shifts and how they might impact the Celtics’ current stash of draft picks.

The vote on any changes to the lottery structure won’t occur until the end of September at the NBA’s Board of Governors meeting. The league has a high hill to climb to convince 75 percent of team owners to vote in favor of the changes, the threshold needed for the reform to take effect. Only 17 teams (56.6 percent) voted in favor of lottery reform during a similar proposal for a change in 2014.

What are the proposed lottery changes?

The reported details of the league proposal have been uncovered by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com and Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today over the past few days. Here are the important nuggets to consider thus far:

• If approved, lottery reform would start for the 2019 NBA Draft. This is different from the 2014 lottery changes proposal, since the shift in rules would have gone into effect immediately if that was approved.

• The most dramatic change would be that the three worst teams in the NBA would have equal odds (roughly 14 percent) for landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. Currently, the three worst teams have a 25%, 19.9% and 15.6% chance respectively to land the No. 1 pick.

• The odds of landing the No. 1 pick would decrease minimally (between 1-2 percent) for each remaining lottery team (4-14). For example, the fourth-worst team would have 12.5 percent odds, the fifth-worst team would have 11 percent odds, etc.

• Four teams would be selected during the actual lottery process, instead of the current three, before the rest of the draft order defaults to the teams with the worst remaining record. Essentially, this would mean that the team with the worst record could drop to No. 5 in the draft order (if four teams jump them during lottery). Currently, the lowest the worst team could fall is No. 4 (since only three teams are selected).  

1. 14%


2. 14%


3. 14%


4. 12.5%


5. 11%


6. 9.5%


7. 8%


8. 6.5%


9. 5%


10. 3.5%


11. 2.5%


12. 1.5%


13. 0.75%


14. 0.5%