With three weeks to go before the start of the post-season, it’s not too early to think about what the Red Sox 25-man roster might look like for the American League Division Series.
True, we don’t know who the Red Sox’ opponent will be, though it would seem we can narrow it down to either Houston or Cleveland. And, technically, we aren’t completely assured that the Red Sox will be in the playoffs.
But for now, their 3.5 game lead looks relatively safe, so let’s dispense with the uncertainty and offer the best guess about the opening round roster.
Since the Division Series is a best-of-five affair with as many as two off-days – one after Game 2, and should the series be extended, another after Game 4 – it’s likely the Sox will need just 11 pitchers for the first round. For much of the season, they’ve carried a dozen, and for short periods, have had as many as 13.
For our current purposes, David Price is not included in the projection since it’s yet to be demonstrated that he’ll be ready to contribute. If he shows the Red Sox he’s able to help, he could be utilized as a starter or reliever. For now, such speculation is premature.
Additionally, I’ve left Eduardo Rodriguez off – for now. Rodriguez won’t crack the four-man rotation, and though he has occasionally pitched in relief, I think it’s more likely that he is left off entirely for the first round.
Armed with that as a guide, here’s a breakdown of the 14 position players and 11 pitchers the Sox might choose:
STARTING PITCHERS (4)
Chris Sale – The obvious choice to pitch Game 1 – and yes that would include a matchup with the Indians, who have hit him well. He’s clearly the best pitcher. Period.
Drew Pomeranz – The lefty has been the second-most dependable starter this season, with 15 wins and an ERA of 3.35. There may be some advantages or disadvantages of starting a series with two lefties, but Pomeranz has earned this spot.
Doug Fister – The notion of Fister being part of the Red Sox post-season rotation would have been laughable five weeks ago. But from late July on, he’s been remarkably consistent. He’s also the only Sox starter to have won a playoff game.
Rick Porcello – Porcello has had a disappointing season and his track record isn’t great in the post-season (5.66 ERA). But he’s capable of pitching well and has been more consistent than Rodriguez.
RELIEVERS (7)
Craig Kimbrel – The closer.
Addison Reed – Viewed as the primary set-up man.
Brandon Workman – Has returned from Tommy John surgery to emerge as a late-inning weapon.
Matt Barnes – Yes, we know about his difficulties on the road. But he was a huge piece in the first half and has the ability to gets swings and misses.
Joe Kelly – Too much is made of his radar gun readings, but he can be a capable mid-inning reliever.
Robby Scott – Scott has been pretty effective as a lefty specialist and the Sox have to have someone for such matchups.
Austin Maddox – Here’s another revelation from the last few weeks. His stuff is plus, and John Farrell raves about his mound presence and confidence.
POSITION PLAYERS
Catchers (2)
Sandy Leon – By the time the playoffs arrive, he may only be used with Sale as his batterymate. But that’s an important pairing.
Christian Vazquez – Vazquez has emerged in recent weeks as the better overall catcher, both in terms of his throwing and offense. He may catch every starter but Sale.
INFIELDERS (7)
Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez will likely be used mostly at DH, but in certain matchups, could be used at first base.
Mitch Moreland – The de facto starter at first base, he’ll also be used as late-inning defensive replacement for Ramirez.
Dustin Pedroia – In three weeks’ time, we’ll know a lot more about his durability. The built-in off-days will help.
Xander Bogaerts – Is it possible that Bogaerts loses the starting shortstop job to Eduardo Nunez? Not likely. But he needs to pick up his offensive game, fast.
Rafael Devers – Expect him to start at third for every game, unless Nunez gets a game against a tough lefty.
Eduardo Nunez – Somehow, his bat has to be in the lineup for nearly every game. Whether that’s at short, third or DH, we’ll see.
Brock Holt – Holt’s versatility ensures he’ll be on the roster.
OUTFIELDERS (5)
Andrew Benintendi – The starting left fielder, hitting either second or third in the order.
Jackie Bradley Jr. – Center fielder non pareil, hitting ninth.
Mookie Betts – The best, most talented player on the team and the starting right fielder.
Rajai Davis – Davis hasn’t been used much since Jackie Bradley Jr. returned from his DL stint, but he could play a huge role in the post-season as a pinch-runner.
Chris Young – His inclusion is far from a lock. For now, he makes the team as a right-handed pinch-hitting option off the bench, and for his leadership abilities.
Lineup
It's too soon to know the Red Sox first-round opponent or the starting pitcher they'll be facing, either of which could impact their roster or lineup choices
But it's not too soon to have some fun with an educated guess:
Eduardo Nunez DH
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Andrew Benintendi LF
Mookie Betts RF
Hanley Ramirez 1B
Rafael Devers 3B
Xander Bogaerts SS
Sandy Leon C
Jackie Bradley Jr CF
Chris Sale P