When the summer began, Nerlens Noel was one of the restricted free agents that looked primed to get a big payday.
The 23-year-old escaped the big-man logjam in Philadelphia at last year’s trade deadline, as the Mavericks bought low on the impending free agent. Dallas sent only Justin Anderson and a pair of second round picks for Noel, a seemingly low price for a player not close to his prime who had career averages of 10 ppg and 7.5 rpg in a tough situation. Andrew Bogut was also included as salary filler, but was bought out by Philadelphia after the trade.
After a solid first few months with the team in Dallas, most expected the Mavericks would be eager to bring Noel back in free agency and would be willing to pay big to do so. However, the 6-foot-11 forward/center accepted a one-year, $4.1 million qualifying offer from Dallas this week, a risky, but strategic play for the former No. 6 overall pick.
The deal is just another sign of a depressed free agent market for non-shooting big men over the past couple months. Once the 2017 salary-cap number ($99 million) came in below expectations, Noel lost some leverage with the Mavericks immediately since the number of teams that had big money to throw around in free agency was reduced.
A number of those teams (Brooklyn, New York, Atlanta, Indiana) did not show measurable interest in committing big money to a one-dimensional offensive player, which left Noel playing a waiting game with his agent for a big deal that never appeared. There were conflicting reports in recent days about whether the Mavericks ever reportedly made a big offer to Noel for four years, $70 million at the start of free agency. Some reporters (Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com) maintain it was pulled quickly, while others insist it was never on the table altogether. The Mavericks had the ability to match any offers Noel signed in free agency, but those did not materialize.
Either way, the decision to wait out the market for Noel looks great for the Mavericks right now. They now get a cheap look at the former athletic Kentucky star in their system for a full year and can decide from there whether he’s worthy of a big investment from them. Noel can do a lot of things well (defense, rebound, finish around the basket, athleticism on both ends of the floor), but the value of those things when you are a player who can’t spread the floor as a shooter is going down these days.
By accepting the qualifying offer, Noel is putting a lot of pressure on himself for the 2017-18 season. It’s a similar situation to what Greg Monroe had with the Pistons three years ago. He ultimately ended up getting paid off one year after accepting his qualifying offer, signing a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Bucks after becoming an unrestricted free agent. However, there aren’t many teams that are expected to have sizable salary cap room this summer, so Noel could be facing an uphill climb to get paid as an unrestricted free agent as well if the Mavericks aren’t sold on him long-term. Several other big men (Alex Len, Mason Plumlee, JaMychal Green) are all facing similar stalemates right now in their restricted free agencies, making Noel’s situation one that should be a common theme for big men going forward in today’s NBA.
From Boston’s perspective, there are a couple of important things to take away from this in regards to their own team building and situation:
It’s still understandable the Celtics didn’t trade for Noel last offseason. While many fans have wondered why the Celtics didn’t bother giving up a cheap return for the big man, it’s important to remember the Celtics wouldn’t have had the cap space to sign him and Gordon Hayward in free agency without sacrificing other important parts of the roster. It’s the reason why Kelly Olynyk was out the door once Hayward agreed to sign. The same would have been the case with Noel, unless another big piece (Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder) was also traded for picks to clear cap space.
It might be cheaper than expected to keep Marcus Smart in restricted free agency next year. Outside of Otto Porter Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr., there were few impressive paydays to go around for restricted free agents this summer. That’s good news for a Celtics team that will be managing a hefty payroll beyond 2018 and will want to keep its luxury tax burden at a reasonable level. Smart will command real money, but his market in a free agent market with limited cap room won’t be as big as many anticipate.
Leftover nuggets
- Manu Ginobili will be back in San Antonio for a couple of final runs at the NBA title after signing a two-year, $5 million deal this week. The 40-year-old's numbers are on the decline, but he still shot 39.2 percent from 3-point range last year, making him a useful bench weapon for Greg Popovich.
- The Clippers added three executives to their front office staff in Michael Winger (general manager) and Mark Hughes + Trent Redden (assistant general managers). The trio will report to Clippers vice president of basketball operations (Lawrence Frank), adding some fresh ideas to the team's front office after Doc Rivers was stripped of personnel control this offseason.
- Josh Smith is flirting with a return to the Houston Rockets according to Jared Iko of ESPNHouston. The veteran power forward has played last season in China after an ugly 2015-16 campaign with the Rockets and Clippers.
- A reported offer of Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brodgon and a 1st round pick by the Bucks for Kyrie Irving was shot down by Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press, who said it was never offered. Many had referred to this rumored proposal as the best potential offer that the Cavs got for Irving, outside of the C's deal.