Two days later, the dust is still settling around the biggest August trade in Celtics team history. Boston added 25-year-old star point guard Kyrie Irving to their lineup for at least the next two years, and they dug deep into their collection of assets to do it. My initial reaction to the deal is this was a risky gamble by Danny Ainge. That mindset has not changed over the last 48 hours as I’ve dug into the various implications of the deal in both the short and long-term. Without further ado, here’s a look at the case against the Irving deal. (In the interest of fairness, I’ll also have the case for the Irving deal on Friday.)
1) Who were the Celtics outbidding here?
I guess we have to start with the hefty trade package that the Celtics gave up for Irving. A underpaid 28-year-old All-Star point guard (with a bad hip), a valuable role player under contract for $21 million over the next three seasons, a 20-year-old center under team control for the next four seasons, and one of the most valued draft picks (not owned by the original team) in the league.
Compare that haul to what the Bulls got for two years of Jimmy Butler from the Timberwolves (while also giving up the No. 17 pick):
- Kris Dunn (a No. 5 overall pick, who had an underwhelming rookie season)
- Zach LaVine (big-time young scorer with defensive issues coming off an ACL tear, who is due a new contract in 2018)
- The No. 8 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft
Paul George
DeMarcus Cousins
2) The Celtics just gave the Cavaliers the best of both worlds.
LeBron James
Derrick Rose, Jeff Green)
While it’s still unclear where LeBron will be playing after next season and whether he likes the acquisitions of Crowder and Thomas, there is no denying that the Cavs could add another compelling piece to the roster if they want to flip the Brooklyn pick now. Would that be enough to convince James to stay in Cleveland beyond the 2017-18 season? It’s too early to know, but you can bet it would help those odds. LeBron staying put would be bad news for a Celtics team that has been trying to get past him for the better part of the last decade.
In the meantime, the Celtics right now are still underdogs (on paper) against James and the Cavs, assuming Isaiah Thomas is back to his old self by the time the postseason rolls around. If everything goes wrong here for Boston, this trade could strengthen Cleveland in both the short and long-term.
3. Can Kyrie Irving be the “guy”? And is Irving/Hayward/Horford the beginnings of a championship core?
The Celtics are obviously big believers in Irving, and he has earned that respect with his sensational play in the postseason over the past couple seasons. Few players in the league can do what Irving has showcased repeatedly in the playoffs, creating efficient offense in isolation situations by featuring shots from all over the floor with a high degree of difficulty.
With that said, he is far from the perfect player, at least in the regular season. He has played in under 60 games during three of his six seasons, suffering injuries during that time to almost every part of his body. He gives you very little on the defensive end of the floor on a night-to-night basis. He also benefited from playing next to one of the best players on the planet for the last three years.
He’ll have plenty of talent around him in Boston, along with a superstar coach, but there is no one approaching LeBron’s greatness in green. The Cavs got their butts kicked by the Warriors in the 2017 NBA Finals, and with a fairly even supporting cast around Irving in Boston heading into the 2017-18 season, there is little to suggest Irving and Co. would fare better if given a chance at the defending champions.
The Celtics obviously made this trade with the long view in mind, but if the Warriors stay healthy, it’s hard to give Boston more than a puncher’s chance against them in the next two seasons. After that, Irving will demand a new max contract (30 percent of the salary cap) that will be worth in the $30-35 million per year range. When you combine that with Horford and Hayward in 2019-20, those players will be making roughly $95 million. That’s a lot to invest in three guys that may or may not be good enough to make a serious run at an NBA title in the next few years. It would also leave the Celtics with very little flexibility going forward and a hefty luxury tax bill when you factor in new contracts for other supporting pieces (Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris, etc.).
Make no mistake, the Celtics will be very good for years to come with this group. Irving is closer to a sure thing than Thomas, and, like Hayward, has been improving every season. However, if the ultimate goal for the Celtics here is Banner 18, this is far from a no-brainer gamble.
Perhaps there are still more moves to come. Maybe a fourth star will be brought in or will develop from within (Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown). Maybe a better and younger third star will take the place of Horford a couple years down the line if the Celtics can use their remaining assets (Brown, Tatum, Lakers pick, Memphis pick, etc.) to acquire one. We won’t know the answer to these questions for a while, but if neither of those scenarios pans out, the Celtics gave up one of their best trade chips and a chance at another star (2018 Brooklyn pick) for a borderline contender.
