Donnelly: What are some possible lineup tweaks the Bruins could make for Game 3?

The Bruins are looking to get back on track and regain control of their first-round series against the Florida Panthers after an uncharacteristic Game 2 showing in a 6-3 loss.

Boston has gone the first two games without the heartbeat of the lineup both on and off the ice, captain Patrice Bergeron. No. 37 skated on his own the last two days, but it's unclear if he made the trip to Florida with the team. 

"Well, he skated just now, so that's obviously a positive sign," head coach Jim Montgomery said Thursday at Warrior Ice Arena. "I haven't talked to medical or athletic trainers about where he's at as far as coming on the trip."

Regardless of Bergeron's absence, the Bruins have yet to play the hockey in the playoffs that they have proven capable of over the course of the year. When asked postgame if he'd consider lineup changes, Montgomery left everything on the table.

“I think it gives me pause to think about changes everywhere,” he said Wednesday.

With that in mind, these are the biggest lineup questions facing the Bruins ahead of Friday's pivotal Game 3.

UPDATE: This was written prior to today’s morning skate in Florida. See the Bruins’ projected lineup changes here. 

Should Matt Grzelcyk go in for Derek Forbort?

Short answer, yes.

The Panthers attacked Forbort off the rush and on the forecheck. No. 28 is tasked with heavy defensive responsibilities but was last among Bruins defensemen with 14:03 of ice time. 

At 5-on-5, shot attempts favored Florida by 60.87 percent, and the Cats outshot the B’s 7-5 with Forbort on the ice. The Panthers used their speed effectively against Forbort in transition, burning him on one rush in particular that saw him take a hooking penalty as he tried to turn, catch up and prevent a scoring chance. It may have been mostly stick-on-stick, but Forbort’s stick was parallel to the ice. 

Montgomery feels Grzelcyk can make the biggest difference in transition, where Florida has made quite a living, especially in Game 2. No. 48's skating ability and vision allow him to move the puck up ice exceptionally, sometimes being a one-man breakout. His skating allows him to keep up going the other way in transition, too. 

"Transition hockey [is where he helps the team]," Montgomery said Thursday. "The one part about Grizzy’s game that is very underrated is how he kills plays before they end up in our own end. His great feet, angles and his ability to gap up on people — force turnovers, maintain pucks in the offensive zone or three-quarter ice — really allows us to get to our game. Those are areas he can really benefit us."

A key cog to Boston's penalty kill during the regular season, Forbort was third among Bruins D-men with 1:18 of shorthanded ice time in Game 2, behind Brandon Carlo (2:46) and Dmitry Orlov (2:01). Naturally, Forbort led the B's with four blocked shots (two on the penalty kill). But the man-down unit likely wouldn't see a sharp decline without him. During Forbort's late-season absence, the penalty kill went 56-for-70 (93.3 percent). 

There’s the knock on Grzelcyk’s durability in the playoffs. Montgomery may not be too concerned about that, based on his assessment earlier in the year.

On Feb. 28, he said, "I understand what has happened in the past, but I wasn’t here for that. I look at how his game has progressed. I find his gaps and his ability to make reads and shut plays down before they even get into forecheck situations has drastically improved. So I don’t think those situations arise as much. I don’t think they will arise as much. It is a more forechecking game in the playoffs. I and we understand that, but I like the way he’s been really moving pucks on first touch, which allows him to not take those hits that happen on the forecheck a lot in the playoffs."

So, where does that leave the rest of the defense? 

A somewhat diminutive pair of Grzelcyk and Connor Clifton would not be optimal, especially with Florida now having last change on home ice, able to dictate physical matchups. It would make sense to put Grzelcyk with familiar partner Charlie McAvoy, and bump Orlov to a pair with Clifton.

Grzelcyk-McAvoy has consistently been one of the Bruins' most dominant play-driving defensive pairings for a few seasons. At 5-on-5 in the 2022-23 regular season, Boston held a plus-57 shot differential, a plus-21 goal differential, a plus-22 scoring chance margin and a plus-10 edge in high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. Their familiarity with each other (604:05 of 5-on-5 time together this season) would likely make for a smoother return for Grzelcyk as well.

Orlov-Clifton proved to be effective as well during the regular season, in a smaller sample. Shot attempts and actual shots on goal were both over 56 percent in the Bruins' favor at 5-on-5 with that pair on the ice. Boston outscored the opposition 3-0, had a plus-22 scoring chance differential and a plus-eight edge in high-danger looks with Orlov-Clifton on the ice for 77:23 of 5-on-5 play.

Assuming there's no Bergeron, should there be shuffling in the top six?