Donnelly: What are some possible lineup tweaks the Bruins could make for Game 3?

The Bruins are looking to get back on track and regain control of their first-round series against the Florida Panthers after an uncharacteristic Game 2 showing in a 6-3 loss.

Boston has gone the first two games without the heartbeat of the lineup both on and off the ice, captain Patrice Bergeron. No. 37 skated on his own the last two days, but it's unclear if he made the trip to Florida with the team. 

"Well, he skated just now, so that's obviously a positive sign," head coach Jim Montgomery said Thursday at Warrior Ice Arena. "I haven't talked to medical or athletic trainers about where he's at as far as coming on the trip."

Regardless of Bergeron's absence, the Bruins have yet to play the hockey in the playoffs that they have proven capable of over the course of the year. When asked postgame if he'd consider lineup changes, Montgomery left everything on the table.

“I think it gives me pause to think about changes everywhere,” he said Wednesday.

With that in mind, these are the biggest lineup questions facing the Bruins ahead of Friday's pivotal Game 3.

UPDATE: This was written prior to today’s morning skate in Florida. See the Bruins’ projected lineup changes here. 

Should Matt Grzelcyk go in for Derek Forbort?

Short answer, yes.

The Panthers attacked Forbort off the rush and on the forecheck. No. 28 is tasked with heavy defensive responsibilities but was last among Bruins defensemen with 14:03 of ice time. 

At 5-on-5, shot attempts favored Florida by 60.87 percent, and the Cats outshot the B’s 7-5 with Forbort on the ice. The Panthers used their speed effectively against Forbort in transition, burning him on one rush in particular that saw him take a hooking penalty as he tried to turn, catch up and prevent a scoring chance. It may have been mostly stick-on-stick, but Forbort’s stick was parallel to the ice. 

Montgomery feels Grzelcyk can make the biggest difference in transition, where Florida has made quite a living, especially in Game 2. No. 48's skating ability and vision allow him to move the puck up ice exceptionally, sometimes being a one-man breakout. His skating allows him to keep up going the other way in transition, too. 

"Transition hockey [is where he helps the team]," Montgomery said Thursday. "The one part about Grizzy’s game that is very underrated is how he kills plays before they end up in our own end. His great feet, angles and his ability to gap up on people — force turnovers, maintain pucks in the offensive zone or three-quarter ice — really allows us to get to our game. Those are areas he can really benefit us."

A key cog to Boston's penalty kill during the regular season, Forbort was third among Bruins D-men with 1:18 of shorthanded ice time in Game 2, behind Brandon Carlo (2:46) and Dmitry Orlov (2:01). Naturally, Forbort led the B's with four blocked shots (two on the penalty kill). But the man-down unit likely wouldn't see a sharp decline without him. During Forbort's late-season absence, the penalty kill went 56-for-70 (93.3 percent). 

There’s the knock on Grzelcyk’s durability in the playoffs. Montgomery may not be too concerned about that, based on his assessment earlier in the year.

On Feb. 28, he said, "I understand what has happened in the past, but I wasn’t here for that. I look at how his game has progressed. I find his gaps and his ability to make reads and shut plays down before they even get into forecheck situations has drastically improved. So I don’t think those situations arise as much. I don’t think they will arise as much. It is a more forechecking game in the playoffs. I and we understand that, but I like the way he’s been really moving pucks on first touch, which allows him to not take those hits that happen on the forecheck a lot in the playoffs."

So, where does that leave the rest of the defense? 

A somewhat diminutive pair of Grzelcyk and Connor Clifton would not be optimal, especially with Florida now having last change on home ice, able to dictate physical matchups. It would make sense to put Grzelcyk with familiar partner Charlie McAvoy, and bump Orlov to a pair with Clifton.

Grzelcyk-McAvoy has consistently been one of the Bruins' most dominant play-driving defensive pairings for a few seasons. At 5-on-5 in the 2022-23 regular season, Boston held a plus-57 shot differential, a plus-21 goal differential, a plus-22 scoring chance margin and a plus-10 edge in high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. Their familiarity with each other (604:05 of 5-on-5 time together this season) would likely make for a smoother return for Grzelcyk as well.

Orlov-Clifton proved to be effective as well during the regular season, in a smaller sample. Shot attempts and actual shots on goal were both over 56 percent in the Bruins' favor at 5-on-5 with that pair on the ice. Boston outscored the opposition 3-0, had a plus-22 scoring chance differential and a plus-eight edge in high-danger looks with Orlov-Clifton on the ice for 77:23 of 5-on-5 play.

Assuming there's no Bergeron, should there be shuffling in the top six?

The top line with Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk and Pavel Zacha has been strong, overall, in its matchup against the Aleksander Barkov line. Offensively, Marchand has returned to form with goals in both games, Zacha has a pair of assists and DeBrusk earned a greasy goal in Game 1. 

As for the trio of Tyler Bertuzzi, David Krejci and David Pastrnak, they've arguably been the Bruins' worst through two games as a line, even outside of Bertuzzi's strong Game 1 and goal in Game 2. 

In 8:01 of 5-on-5 play together, the second line was out-attempted 12-3, outshot 9-2, out-chanced 7-2 (4-0 high-danger) and outscored 1-0 in Wednesday's loss. In 13:45 together in Game 1, the Panthers had a 19-11 edge in attempts, a 12-4 advantage in shots and a 7-4 hold on scoring chances (4-2 high-danger). Simply not good enough. 

There's a case to be made for reuniting Zacha with Pastrnak and Bertuzzi. 

Pastrnak and Bertuzzi's chemistry is evident, especially on the power play. With Zacha in the middle during the regular season, they were formidable at 5-on-5. In 73:54 of time together, the Bruins out-attempted teams 83-66 and outscored teams 7-4. Scoring chances were 45-40 for Boston, too. 

Granted, Krejci, Marchand and DeBrusk played virtually no time together during the regular season, but it's worth mentioning that perhaps having a right-handed shot in Krejci down the middle, like Bergeron, gives the wingers a familiar look. 

There's also the option to flip Taylor Hall to second-line left wing and bump Bertuzzi down to Charlie Coyle's left. 

Hall and Krejci flashed tremendous chemistry when No. 71 first arrived in Boston in 2021. With Craig Smith, that line out-attempted opponents 215-110 at 5-on-5, outshot them 121-60 and outscored teams 12-1. Scoring chances were 109-51 (41-20 high-danger). Dominant. 

The returns for a Hall-Krejci-Pastrnak trio haven't been quite as gaudy this season, but still passable. Opponents out-attempted the three 142-132 and outshot them 77-75. But goals were 5-4 in the B's favor. Not dazzling, but still better than the sample Bertuzz-Krejci-Pastrnak has shown so far in the series. With Krejci's playmaking ability, Pastrnak's scoring touch and Hall's speed, it could make for a potent combo when everything clicks.

As for a third line of Bertuzzi, Coyle and Trent Frederic, that combination served Boston quite well through the end of the regular season. The Bruins outscored their opponents 4-2 and out-chanced them 58-30 (20-14 high-danger) at 5-on-5. Attempts favored the B's by a 96-72 margin, and shots were 53-36.

Needless to say, Montgomery has plenty of options at his disposal.

Will we see Jeremy Swayman at all?

The short answer on this is probably not for Game 3, unless Linus Ullmark is battling through some sort of issue. 

Ullmark was one of Boston’s best players in Monday’s Game 1, stopping nine of 10 high-danger shots. He had an expected goals-against of 3.14, but only gave up one.

Game 2 was a bit of a different story. Ullmark was again one of the Bruins’ best through two periods, but as the rest of the team faltered in the third, he couldn’t carry Boston in the proverbial backpack. While he was strong against Florida’s most quality looks, denying nine of 10 high-danger chances again, he let up two medium and low-danger goals each, according to Natural Stat Trick. He gave up five goals, compared with his expected goals-against of 3.04. 

Now, an interesting wrinkle is a recent report from Elliotte Friedman on Wednesday’s “32 Thoughts” podcast when discussing Ullmark's Game 1 outing.

"Someone said to me that Ullmark was really sick," Friedman told Jeff Marek. “[Jeremy Swayman] may not have been 100 percent, so Ullmark went. Someone just said to me that Ullmark gave them a real performance under less-than-ideal situations. Let's put it that way."

Swayman was the latest Bruin to fall ill over the weekend, missing Sunday’s practice. 

If what Friedman was told is accurate, Ullmark’s 31-save performance in Game 1 becomes all the more impressive, as it wasn’t obvious that he was dealing with anything. It could also be part of the explanation for his overall dip in Game 2, even if he isn’t shouldering most of the blame for the third-period blunder.

Regardless, the Bruins could be wise to return to a tandem approach with their two goaltenders.

It served them well during the regular season as Ullmark and Swayman finished first and fourth, respectively, in both save percentage and goals-against average. Ullmark was second in the NHL in goals-saved above expected (42.4) and Swayman was eighth (24.0). They took home the Jennings Trophy after the B’s allowed the fewest goals-against of any team in the league.

Ullmark also played 49 games in the regular season, far and away a career-high. A key to his success was the Bruins managing his workload.

Barring a major health issue, the Swede has earned the right to help right the ship in Game 3. It would be his third start in a row. Ullmark went through just three such stretches during the regular season. 

That said, Montgomery gave Ullmark a vote of confidence on Thursday, saying he would be comfortable going back to him on Friday.

Ullmark put up a 3-0-0 mark with a .947 save percentage from Oct. 20-25 in starts against Anaheim, Minnesota and Dallas. Then he went 5-1-0 with a .940 save percentage against Columbus, Pittsburgh, the Rangers, Toronto, St. Louis and Calgary from Oct. 28 to Nov. 10 after Swayman went down with injury against the Pens. There was a 2-0-1 run from Dec. 11-15 with a .935 save percentage versus Vegas, the Islanders and Los Angeles. 

He can do it, but he’s only gone more than three in a row once this year. Even if Boston wins in Game 3, maybe it isn't out of the realm of possibility to go with Swayman in Game 4 or even just at some point in the playoffs, at the very least, to optimize Ullmark and keep him fresh for what could be a long haul. 

Tradition says Stanley Cup winners ride just one goalie on their runs. But what is tradition really, other than peer pressure from dead people?