(David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)
Final: Heat 111, Celtics 101 - 3-point barrage buries Boston
BOSTON CELTICS vs MIAMI HEAT
Eastern Conference first round, Game 2
TD Garden, 7 p.m. - TNT/NBCS Boston
Line: Boston -14.5
INJURIES
Boston: Luke Kornet (calf, OUT)
Miami: Jimmy Butler (knee, OUT), Terry Rozier (neck, OUT), Josh Richardson (shoulder, OUT)
SERIES:
The Celtics came out strong, scoring the first 14 points of the game, but Miami was able to answer and cut the lead to five by the break. The Celtics poured it on from 3 and got their lead to 18 before it settled at 15 at the half. The Celtics dominated the third quarter thanks to 10 each from Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, and then they completely let up to start the fourth, watching a 34-point lead drop to 14 before they recovered to win by 20.
THINGS I’M LOOKING FOR
1. Miami’s 3-point shooting adjustment: Boston shot 49 3-pointers to Miami’s 37, and that number was boosted by a big-shooting fourth quarter when the Heat went 7-9. That late bump, and the resulting 35-23 advantage it helped create, could be the impetus for Miami to let it fly.
“We shot more 3s last game, but we left some on the table,” Erik Spoelstra said at the team’s Tuesday practice. “I don’t know if we’re gonna shoot 49, so there going to have to be some kind of balance, bringing their number down a little bit. We’re not going to bring their 3s down to 25, that's not realistic, and we’re not going to shoot 50. But there is a balance there.”
Miami was 18th in the NBA in 3-point attempts averaging 33.7. They have a full season of playing a certain way, which makes their shooting decisions a hard habit to break. They can try to adjust, and I’m sure players being told to let it fly will be happy to shoot more often, but the muscle memory will kick in in the face of a closeout.
One thing Boston doesn’t want is a shootout. As much as people think Joe Mazzulla would watch 100 combined 3-point attempts like a wide-eyed toddler at a fireworks display, he doesn’t want the other team falling into a winning math equation. The Celtics will have to be mindful of who is shooting and make sure to give at least token closeouts.
They can’t just stand there and watch someone like Caleb Martin just fire away without a contest in Game 2.
Don’t fly past him. Don’t treat him like prime Ray Allen. Just make him rush a little bit and the rest will take care of itself.
2. How Miami defends Boston: I’ve been wracking my brain to try to figure out what adjustment Miami is going to throw at Boston. They can’t match up because Boston has too many good players who can attack the mismatches. They can’t play their normal zone because the Celtics have destroyed it.
So I’ve settled on two things.
First, instead of just doubling Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, I expect Miami to try to bait them into isolation situations and then send a late blitz from the blind side. The goal would be to try to get them to spin or lose sight of the help long enough for someone to jump in and rip the ball away.
Miami needs to win the possession battle, so if they're not going to do that by crashing the glass, they're going to have to do it by turning Boston over. Tatum and Brown both have to be aware at all times and be willing to give the ball up early.
The other thing is a more creative zone. I’m thinking some kind of 3-2 zone with Adebayo up top. Yes, it might encourage Boston to attack the rim more, but if the Heat can send some help and make those shots at the rim just a little uncomfortable, then they might force a few misses while still encouraging the attempts … thus flipping the math into their favor.
I’m sure people hate thinking about basketball in terms of math, but that's what this is. Spoelstra started his answer about 3-point shooting by saying “I understand the math.” Miami needs the 2-point attempts and 3-point attempts from both teams to be in a similar range. If they can’t stop Boston from taking those shots with their personnel, then maybe they can trick Boston into playing along with their scheme.
It’s a dangerous game, though, because Boston will probably still find a way to take a bunch of 3s. If they can generate the same kinds of shots they took in Game 1, we’ll see another double-digit win.
3. Matching Miami’s physicality: I think the Martin foul on Tatum will end up being a good thing because (a) it serves as a reminder that Miami is going to play hard until the final whistle, (b) it shows how willing the Heat are to dance around the line of physical and excessive, and (c) it happened late enough in the game where it’s the freshest memory.
“Every game is a fight. You gotta win the game and you gotta win the fight,” Brown said after Boston’s Tuesday practice. “Both of those things are important. We embrace both. Being a better, smarter team. But also being a team that's willing to dive on the floor. Being the team that's able to set the tone physically and not back down. So you gotta win the game and you gotta win the fight."
You’ll notice the adjustments on this page are all on Miami. They're the team with the gaping holes that need to be covered. The Celtics need to keep doing what their doing, but also understand that Miami is going to come out differently in Game 2.
“I think that’s the type of team that we have, the open-mindedness to go with what makes sense,” Mazzulla said. “There’s a game plan, but we just can’t have an expectation of how a game is gonna go. Every game could call for something different. It could call for going small, it could call for a double-big, it could call for zone, different things. So it’s just having an open mind, being ready to execute and give that particular game what it needs. So that’s really important, especially going against a team like Miami that also has the ability to adjust on the fly.”
Some people might think the Game 1 result makes things easy for Boston, but it’s the opposite. Miami was embarrassed and all the game tape shows is how overmatched they are. All the talk over the past couple of days is about this series being over in four or five games.
That might still be how this goes, but the Celtics have to expect a huge punch out of the gates in Game 2. They can’t be surprised by anything. Play hard and play physical without getting pulled away from the game plan.
Follow along with my thoughts as the game goes on. They’ll show up below and in the comments section, so hop in and share your opinion as well.