BSJ Live Coverage: AFC Championship - Patriots 10, Broncos 7 (4th) - NE takes first lead on 9:31 drive to open 2nd half

AFC Championship - Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3), 3 p.m.
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver.
TV: CBS-4. Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (color analyst), Tracy Wolfson and Evan Washburn (sidelines).
Radio: 98.5-FM The SportsHub in Boston (Bob Socci and Scott Zolak). **Bedard will be on the postgame show approximately one hour after the game.**
Online: Live Box | Patriots media notes | Broncos media notes | Flipcard
Latest Line: Patriots -3.5, 43.5 o/u

WEATHER REPORT

Cold and gusty at times. Possible light snow.

INJURY REPORT

Patriots have even more perfect health this week, as Mack Hollins comes off IR.

Broncos activated C Luke Wattenberg off IR.

ROSTER MOVES

Patriots

WR Mack Hollins has been activated to the 53-man roster from injured reserve.

Placed DT Eric Gregory on injured reserve and elevated RB D’Ernest Johnson and DE Leonard Taylor III to the active roster from the practice squad for the second straight week.

WR Trent Sherfield Sr. was released from the practice squad.

Broncos

Activated center Luke Wattenberg from injured reserve and placed quarterback Bo Nix on injured reserve.

Elevated wide receivers Michael Bandy and Elijah Moore.

 INACTIVES

Patriots

WR Efton Chism III
CB Kobee Minor
OT Marcus Bryant
G Caedan Wallace
TE C.J.Dippre
Tommy DeVito (3rd QB)
DE/OLB Harold Landry (knee).

Broncos

WR Michael Bandy
WR Troy Franklin
C Alex Forsyth
DL Jordan Jackson
DE Sai'vion Jones
LB Karene Reid
S JL Skinner

No Franklin and if C Wattenberg goes down, they will be left with third-string C.

STATS

BEDARD'S KEYS TO THE GAME AND GAME PICK

KEYS TO THE GAME

• Limit offensive turnovers to 0 or 1.
• End every drive with a kick.
• Make the Broncos have to drive the field for points.
• Go after CB Riley Moss, and the single-high safety in the seams.
• Maye can't hold the ball. Max 2.5 seconds and then do something. Get to the checkdowns quickly.
• Take care of Cortland Sutton.
• Expect the unexpected from Sean Payton.
• Pressure Stidham and get him off his first read. 

BEDARD'S GAME PICK

Season: 13-6 straight up, 10-9 spread.

Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 42.6

So the line keeps dropping. Interesting. Guessing it's more about the weather.

This game kind of goes against my tenets because I think the Broncos have the advantage on both lines. It's all about Stidham. I have confidence in him grinding for 60 minutes, especially if it's a tight game, or the Patriots jump out to a lead. Stidham reacts to pressure, and he's always late on throws beyond his first read. If the Broncos had a really good running game, I would give them more of a chance. But I also don't think this is going to be a Maye masterpiece in this environment, so the game will stay tight. But the defense will make a few plays, and Maye will cash in a few times.

Patriots 20, Broncos 17.