FOXBOROUGH - We got ahead of ourselves. Forget about being an MVP candidate (though you didn’t read that here), or leading another Super Bowl run. If Drake Maye is going to play like that against the league’s best defenses, then the Patriots may get the playoffs, but depending on the matchups, won’t go much further than that.
For the second time this season, Maye threw three interceptions in a half and should have been picked a fourth time (that kid would still be running), helping dig the Pats into a hole they couldn’t climb out of.
“Very disappointed in myself,” he said. “You can’t put - shoot - put the team in the hole straight off the bat, first possession, first half. Like there were times we had a chance to get back in the game, and I messed them up. We had chances to push back within three points multiple times, and just frustrating… I wasn’t good today.”
Based on his October performance, when Maye was the Offensive Player of the Month, it was easy to assume he had come through the muck and mire of the first three weeks and reestablished himself as one of the league's elite players. Instead, facing a legit defense for the first time since that lopsided loss in Jacksonville, the third-year pro reverted to (bad) form.
“I’m surprised just about how the day went, the way that it started, and then I guess kind of how the third quarter went,” Mike Vrabel said when I asked about Maye’s return to being the quarterback he was in September. “You certainly can't win playing that way. Turning the ball over and not creating turnovers…”
Maye didn’t see coverages well, didn’t handle pressure consistently, and - as he was last week during the first half in Miami - unwilling to throw receivers open, instead waiting for them to appear uncovered. That the Packers were reading his eyes - they are a very good zone team - and intercepted one of those ‘wait-and-sees,’ the ball to Eli Raridon in the second quarter, is evidence that he, and the Pats, just aren’t there.
“Just throwing the football in spots that I don't think I should throw it,” Maye said, as he ran through his three turnovers. Later, he added, “They've hunted a lot of turnovers with eyes on the quarterback in zone coverage. I knew that coming into it and forced the first one, and then, they jumped some crossers and I gotta see it. That's on me.”
The Patriots have now lost four games this year. Three of those defeats came to teams currently in the top 5 in DVOA, and one win, against #7 Pittsburgh, came in spite of Maye, who threw an interception and had a 75.6 rating:
Seahawks #2
Packers #4
Jaguars #5
The Patriots' other loss came against #16 Chicago, where Maye's end zone interception was costly.
The difference between his performance (and the offense’s) in those games versus what they’ve seen in their other four wins is stark (defensive DVOAs of those opponents: Bills 20th, Jets 24th, Dolphins 28th, and Raiders 31st), and certainly warrants a deeper conversation about he/them being schedule merchants.
A closer look at the numbers tells a tale of two quarterbacks (EPA = expected points added).
Basically, the picture Maye paints against the lesser-thans is Da Vinci-esque. Versus the iron, it’s like a 5-year-old did it. Oh sure, you can look at the coloring here, or the impressionism there, and think, “Oooh, we might have the next great one,” but let’s be real, that’s wishful thinking.
Now that’s not to say Maye can’t do it. He carved up the league for most of last season, and did it again in the previous five weeks. There were times in last year’s playoffs where he