Like the Jaguars' blowout loss, the Patriots' stirring upset of the Bills in Buffalo has raised a lot of questions on the other side of the spectrum. Instead of wondering whether the Patriots and Drake Maye were really as bad as they looked in Jacksonville, we're now wondering whether Maye and the Patriots have arrived. Like last week, there are no definite answers after four games, but we're getting some indicators. Let's break down the big themes into three categories: what appears real, what might be fool's gold, and what's still in question.
WHAT APPEARS REAL
The Patriots have a big coaching advantage over the Bills: After moving on from Sean McDermott and promoting OC Joe Brady, the Bills have a first-time head coach, and a first-time defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard. While I still think Leonhard has the traits to be a good DC (if he gets some players on the second and third levels) once the players get more time in his system, the Patriots seem to have decided advantages in the coaching category at HC (Mike Vrabel vs. Brady), defense (Vrabel/Zak Kuhr vs. Brady), and offense (Josh McDaniels vs. Leonhard). And I don't see that changing anytime soon, maybe if Brady and Leonhard have more time on task.
The Bills were obviously not prepared for this game. Brady told the CBS crew that he would have preferred Christian Gonzalez in the lineup, because he would have a better idea of what to expect from the Patriots' defense (more man coverage). The Bills went into this game loaded with man coverage beaters in their gameplan, and they barely got to use them (Buffalo got them on one crosser as Carlton Davis was picked). This may have contributed to an extremely poor game from Josh Allen, who appeared to be sped up from the outset. He was panicked when he didn't need to be, and I marked down eight plays where Allen had opportunities to make plays against the Patriots and just flat-out missed them due to a lack of patience. Also, Brady should be ashamed for only giving RB James Cook eight carries through three quarters against a Patriots defense that still ranks 28th against the run in DVOA and was without Christian Barmore. Relying on Allen, especially when he is off (this is at least two straight weeks when he's played poorly and his decision-making was highly questionable), is a losing proposition for the Bills. Until Brady realizes the offense needs to run through Cook, the Bills are going to underachieve.
Defensively, it looked like either the Bills didn't study Maye's weaknesses coming into this game, or the players couldn't execute. The game was largely decided because of these numbers: Maye 8 rushes, 54 yards; Allen 5 rushes, 4 yards. For the Bills to run past Maye (mostly Ed Oliver) on the second play of the game out of their own end zone for 15 yards is absolutely criminal. The Bills' gameplan should have been to make Maye beat them from the pocket, don't let him roll to his right, and don't give him one-on-one matchups outside the numbers. Instead, the Bills allowed all of those things repeatedly to make this Maye's easiest decision-making game since before the postseason last year.
Drake Maye's second half: If you were looking for the old Maye, it was all there in the second half. Maye showed improvement in the first half with his timing and accuracy, but there were still a lot of poor moments (fumble lost in FG range, poorly thrown interception for no reason, contributed to two knockdowns, and missed some reads). In my grading, he ended the first half with seven plus plays (+1 additionally for Doubs TD where he threw a piss missile while getting hit — it was close to a Will Campbell-led disaster) and eight minus plays (-1.5 additionally for the two turnovers).
Second half: