CHARLESTON -- One of my favorite parts of a new season is learning more about the game-planning process. I wrote about it after Media Day. Joe Mazzulla shared a very insightful quote about league trends and planning for opponents:
“I think the part that doesn't get talked about enough is what the opponent and the league is doing," Mazzulla said. "I mean, you have no idea of that. And obviously, your opponent and the league dictate what you're able to do. You want to obviously do your best to stay ahead of the trends. From a trend standpoint around the league, where's the game headed? What are you trying to accomplish? How can you stay ahead of that? At the same time, you are relatively a product of what the defense and offense allow you to do at that particular moment.
"So you want to have your identities, but at the same time, you have to be flexible towards what your opponent is giving you, what they're allowing to happen, and where the league is headed. So, I think that's why you learn that over the course of the season. So, I'd say that's the other piece is, the opponent doesn't get enough credit for their ability to impact what you have to do, and that tension of how you want to impose your will versus, you know, they have a choice, and how do you respond to that?”
But I wanted more information. What does that mean? What have the trends been in years past? How can you game plan for the future? Is there actually a way to anticipate trends?
That last question might be the most intriguing of all. If such a huge part of winning in the NBA is figuring out how to keep up with the Joneses, then is there a way to predict the Joneses' next move?
"You try to a little bit," Joe Mazzulla said before Celtics practice in Charleston, South Carolina on Sunday morning. "I mean, obviously, the last couple of years, it was the offensive rebounding, it was the backcourt pressure, those types of things. And so, you try to, based on the rosters. But at the same time, you really find that out in the first 10, 15, 20 games, really."
During the 2020-21 season, teams averaged 9.8 offensive rebounds per game. But since then, those numbers have slowly been ticking up. Rather than constantly sprinting back on defense, teams are committing more bodies to the glass.
Last year, Boston constantly crashed from the corners. Guys like Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh would space the floor to the 3-point line, wait for a teammate's shot, then sprint from the corner to the free-throw line.
With how many threes the Celtics take (and how much the league's 3-point rate has skyrocketed), rebounding has changed. Rebounds are now more likely to bounce out further, which makes them harder to predict. But by sending two guys to the free-throw line on almost every shot, the Celtics often had an advantage.
Boston's 12.5 offensive rebounds a night ranked seventh in the league. The NBA as a whole averaged 11.4, the highest league average since the 2004-25 campaign, when it was 12.0. (Though it tied the mark from 2011-12.)
In 2011-12, the NBA averaged 18.4 3-point attempts per game. In 2004-05, that number was 15.8. Last year, teams averaged 37.0 threes per game. It's a lot easier to hunt offensive rebounds when shots aren't coming from as far out.
As for the backcourt pressure, that's been ticking upward as well. The Oklahoma City Thunder are constantly pressuring the ball. Their physicality has set the tone of the past few seasons.
But as Mazzulla mentioned, it's also about the rosters. What will new-look teams around the league try to emphasize? How will teams' new additions change the way they play?
"I definitely can't predict what's next," Walsh said. "I feel like, especially with this summer, with all the trades and moves that happened, it's kind of way more unpredictable than it was when I came in. I feel like when I came in, you're like, alright, Giannis [Antetokounmpo] is in Milwaukee, JB [Jaylen Brown], JT [Jayson Tatum] here with Boston, we're gonna have to watch out for them every year.
"But now so many things have been moved around and changed, it's kind of like you don't know what to expect. Feel like there's less tanking teams, and we feel like there's going to be more teams that are trying to be competitive. So, I think that's kind of where it's different."
Brown and LeBron James are on the Philadelphia 76ers. Kawhi Leonard is on the Toronto Raptors. Antetokounmpo is on the Miami Heat. The Charlotte Hornets gave up LaMelo Ball, and he just joined Anthony Edwards on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Tyrese Haliburton is healthy again, the Portland Trail Blazers traded for Ja Morant, and the Los Angeles Lakers reshaped their entire roster around Luka Doncic.
None of those teams are going to play the exact same as they did last year. New trends could emerge simply because new faces are in new places.
And part of that may be predictable. Maybe you believe Brown and James will force the 76ers to take a more half-court-first approach on offense. Or that Ball will speed up Minnesota's pace and hurt their defensive integrity.
"I think you can start to see certain trends before," Payton Pritchard said. "The way the game's going, pace of play, maybe how guys are becoming more efficient."
Look at the Indiana Pacers. They made it all the way to the NBA Finals with their run-and-gun style of offense. It's dominant in the playoffs. They just need their head of the snake back.
But other teams aren't the only factor. The NBA changes the way it calls the game every year, too. New rules about fouling on fast breaks. What's a foul and what's not.
This year, the NBA is trying to police off-arm push-offs. Making sure offensive players can't take advantage of defenders. But teams get a chane to plan for that, too.
"I think the other piece to it, and thankful the NBA allows the referees to come into practice, is obviously [the] different points of emphasis, how they're going to call some of the points of emphasis there," Mazzulla said. "I mean, it's also that adjustment, too, which will be based on how you're allowed to play the game. So, you try to anticipate that as much as you can, and then you have a feeling-out process of it."
For as much as the goal is to predict trends, the Celtics also have a chance to create their own. If they can be the team to change the way the league looks, it's an inherent advantage.
"At the end of the day, you've got to mix in some of that and also do what you're really good at, and maybe you become the new trend," Pritchard said. "So, I think it's a balance, and I think we're in a good place, and we're gelling right now."
"Yeah, for sure. Yeah. I mean, I think, at the end of the day, it's basketball, so there's not a ton of things," Mazzulla said. "But if you're trying to find something small that you can, then yeah, you can try to do that."