Patience.
That's been the buzzword around Drake Maye since his fourth-quarter meltdown in Seattle that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
That's totally fair. He acknowledged it after the game and has since then. So have Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels.
But everyone outside 1960 Patriot Place (the address changed when the new building opened) needs to show their own patience when it comes to Maye.
Last season was magical for the quarterback and the Patriots. After being unburdened of the Mayo regime from his rookie season, Maye came out of nowhere to nearly win the MVP and help New England to a shocking Super Bowl appearance.
But things weren't as easy for Maye in the postseason, as he went from facing the 32nd-ranked offensive schedule in the regular season (the closest playoff team in that regard was the Eagles, whose offensive schedule was nearly twice as difficult) to facing a murderers' row of pass defenses: Chargers (9th in DVOA against the pass), Texans (2nd), Broncos (10th) and Seahawks (first).
McDaniels talked this week about defenses adjusting to Maye after a full season in the McDaniels' offense.
“I would say there was no film on him and our offense prior to Week 1 last year,” McDaniels said. “And so you go through the process of playing a season and 21 games or whatever the number was, and now there’s evidence of things he does, things he does in our offense, things we use him to do, how we use our players, et cetera.
“I think there’s a natural progression in this league because the coaches on the other teams, the players on the other teams are so talented. And when you have a year like Drake did last year, there’s going to be a reaction and a response to that.”
Here's the thing: that started in the postseason.
Gameplanning during the regular season is sort of the Cliff Notes version of preparation. Once you get through the previous game, grading it, making corrections, the gameplan for the following week amounts to basically Monday night and all day Tuesday (that is, if you're not playing on Thursday night) before it's presented to the team first thing on Wednesday. There's advanced scouting going on, but it's not as thorough as the postseason.
If you're headed to the playoffs, teams dedicate much more manpower to scouting all possible opponents, and you can narrow it down to just a few to really hone in. Remember, the Chargers punted on the season finale against the Broncos with Trey Lance starting the game at quarterback. That means they got a jump on gameplanning for Maye and the Patriots.
Basically, not only were the defenses the Patriots faced in the postseason good, but they were well prepared. That's part of the reason why Maye didn't match his regular-season success in the postseason. The book had begun to be written on how to defend Maye. This is how the Broncos broke down Maye heading into the AFC Championship, via Seth Wickersham's story:
Overview
Maye has been one of the most productive QBs in the NFL, he ranks in the top 2 in Expected Points Added, success rate, yards per attempt, and explosive rate on standard dropbacks
Maye has scrambled at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL
Maye has been aggressive pushing the ball downfield; he has the 4th-highest average depth of target in the NFL
Maye's only slight negative is that he has taken sacks at a slightly higher-than-average rate
Some situations where Maye has been less effective: against drop 8, against sim pressure, and against 2 high/MOFO with no rotation (show 2-high and play 2-high).
Charts and advanced data follow, delving deeper into each of those bullets, assessing locations of passes thrown, Maye's numbers against blitzes and pressures, when he tends to leave the pocket, to what side, and what he tends to do ("When Maye scrambled left, he ran it himself more often"), and finally, how he fares against man-to-man, Cover 2, Cover 4, and Cover 6 defenses. As always, there are liabilities. Maye has been sacked 57 times, second most in the NFL. His hand size is an average 9 1/8 inches, which contributes to his league-high 15 fumbles. He isn't excellent in game-winning-drive situations. But he is dangerous on the move.
If Maye slips free all afternoon, we will lose, Payton says.
...
Payton briefly introduces the Patriots, listing quarterback Drake Maye's gaudy stats, but also his sacks and fumbles. "When these sacks have taken place, the ball's coming out," Payton says. "If this guy's stepping up and rushing for 20 yards, we're not gonna win this game. That's just a fact."
...
After his press conference, he flips through the stat packet, history's first outline of another brutal loss. You can hear him turn the pages.
"Drake Maye: 65 yards rushing. Goddamn."
....
Basically, defending Maye right now boils down to limiting his legs, punching at the ball when you get an opportunity, and limiting the big plays by playing 2-shell, Cover-6, and dropping eight players into zone coverage.
It's not breaking news or anything, but it's reality.
The only way out of it is for the Patriots to be good enough at running the ball that teams can no longer keep two safeties back (hence why the Patriots stuck with the run), and for Maye to be patient enough to take the checkdowns and other plays; smaller gains the defense gives him so they can't get the Patriots off the field, and the defense starts playing more aggressively.
The book on early Josh Allen was similar to the book on Maye. The Patriots under Bill Belichick used to sit back and wait for Allen to throw them the ball at some point. And he would. These are Allen's stats against the Patriots in his first four matchups:
Then came the Dec. 2020 game at Gillette when Allen and the Bills became the first team to never punt against a Belichick defense:
27 of 36, 320 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs — 38-9 win.
Allen had finally learned to be patient, just take the checkdown, and the Patriots were powerless to stop him.
Maye will get there at some point. He just turned 24 a few months ago. He's played 18 regular-season in this system. Allen didn't become Allen until 2020, when he was 24, and it was his third season with Brian Daboll (a McDaniels disciple) as his offensive coordinator.
The success line for young football players, especially quarterbacks, isn't a straight line. There will be ups and downs for Maye, until he learns all the lessons. Even then, there will be tribulations: just ask Allen, who is still seeking his first Super Bowl appearance in his ninth season.
This is just part of the process. Have patience.
PATRIOTS PLAYING DANGEROUS CONTRACT GAMES, HOLLINS THE LATEST
It was revealed this week that the Patriots asked receiver Mack Hollins to convert some of his incentives from likely to be earned to unlikely to be earned. It's an accounting trick to move money off the cap this year and onto next year, but it also made them harder to attain in the process.
Instead of needing 30 catches this season to earn $300,000, Hollins needs 47. To bank another $300,000, Hollins now needs 50 instead of 40. To max out with an extra $1 million total, he needs to catch 55 instead of 50.
Hollins told the Boston Herald that the Patriots threatened to release Hollins if he didn't agree to the tweak.
The Patriots had their reasons — and I'm just the messenger — the salary cap. The Patriots are currently in the bottom half of the league with $8,436,231 of cap space, which is about what you need to complete the regular season — forget about adding someone at the deadline (they'd need to restructure other contracts, notably Milton Williams, to do that).
I'm going to set aside, for now, that the Patriots could do any number of things to create more salary cap space, which other teams routinely do and the Patriots (i.e. Jonathan Kraft) refuse to do.
I'm just going to say straight out that the Patriots should be embarrassed to even ask a player like Hollins to do that. All that guy has done since he got here is be a consummate teammate and leader. He works his ass off, blocks his ass off, competes on special teams, makes clutch plays when needed, plays in preseason games ... Hollins has done everything and more. He is exactly the type of player you don't ask to take a pay cut, especially when he's only making $4.2 million per year. The Patriots will hit unsung players in the wallet like Hollins and Khyiris Tonga — glue guys who performed in the margins to help this team to a Super Bowl — yet they'll give outsiders like A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Kevin Byard, Julian Hill and Reggie Gilliam millions. To what, slap actual performers for this team in the face?
I know it's part of NFL business (for example, I was fine with them asking Mike Onwenu for a paycut because his play justified it), but it's gross and should embarrass the Patriots to do that to a totally unselfish player like Hollins.
Oh, and let's double down on how bad this makes the Patriots look. According to Jonathan Jones of The Athletic, when Hollins returned from his lacerated spleen and wanted to play in the playoffs, the Patriots wouldn't allow him to unless he signed an injury waiver. That's horrible enough.
And THEN, after he helped them get to the Super Bowl, the Patriots asked Hollins to change his incentives.
I mean, can you get any lower?
I thought the Patriots might be different under Mike Vrabel and his front office. I thought players would realize and see their value here in New England. Instead, it's just the same old Patriots. I think Vrabel is treading an awfully tough line, and he risks players not buying in as fully as they did in Year 1 when they watch players like Hollins and Tonga (you could throw Kayshon Boutte in here if you want) get screwed over for, essentially, nickels. If you're an important role player on this team, why should you completely buy into what Vrabel is selling? The odds are, they'll ask you for a pay cut or get rid of you altogether once the team gets its pound of flesh.
Nice message you're sending.
WHAT ARE THE PATRIOTS GETTING IN DT DAQUAN JONES?
DaQuan Jones, DT, 34 years old (will turn 35 on Dec. 27)
6-foot-4, 320 pounds
Strengths:
- Very strong player with length who can two-gap against the run.
- Lower body is strong
- Good initial snap off the ball to drive linemen a yard back after the snap
- Known more as a pass rusher.
- Will easily displace opponents who are not as strong (ask Jared Wilson from his rookie season)
- Strong club move.
- Ok holding up to double-teams.
- Smart player who will sniff out screens and draws.
- Surprisingly good athlete for his size. He nearly chased down Drake Maye in the second matchup on a rollout to Maye's right. Maye couldn't turn the corner on Jones, had to throw it away.
- Can line up all over the line, from the nose to outside the tackle.
Weaknesses:
- Because of his ability to penetrate, he can get out of his gap and cause weakness in the wall the Patriots like to build against the run. Going too far upfield reveals gaps that can be exploited.
- Can get shoved out of his gap against double teams on occasion. Wouldn't call him a great run defender. Average to good.
- Can get too aggressive in his pass rushes and get by the quarterback.
Possible role this season once he gets up to speed with the playbook: The Patriots are looking to replace Khyiris Tonga's role on the defense with a player who is not as stout against the run, but is a better pass rusher. He could very well take Cory Durden's place as the nose tackle in the base 3-4. Can also spell Milton Williams and Christian Barmore as a pass rusher on passing downs.
Does he have a long-term future here?: Nope. And it's kind of embarrassing for a personnel department that they couldn't find a younger player to fill this spot. They don't even have one close.
Is he an upgrade over what the Patriots previously had?: The Patriots needed another thicker body so it's yes by default. But Tonga would still be here if the Patriots just coughed up another $400,000 for his extension. More on that in a minute.