We’re just one week away from NFL cutdown day. Arguments will be had, and plenty will light a candle for their favorite 53rd guy on the roster. I can hear the chatter now.
‘There’s no way player X makes it through waivers.’
Actually, more often than not, they all make it through. Teams also have all sorts of roster machinations they can go through after the initial 53 is named. In fact, you can take it to the bank that there’ll be at least a couple of changes before the Patriots open in Seattle on September 9th.
But for now, I present to you - in all its glory - my prediction for the 53, version 2.0.
QBs (3): Drake Maye, Tommy DeVito, Behren Morton
I wondered in this weekend’s NFL Notebook if Morton could play his way onto the roster. He showed a lot last night against the Eagles, which was important because his play had leveled off over the last week of training camp. My suspicion is he gets all of the game on Thursday, and that could make or break his spot on the 53, but he has the best arm of any 3rd QB they’ve had in Foxborough in eons.
DeVito was so-so on Saturday. There were some throws you want a veteran backup to make and complete, and that wasn’t always the case against Philly.
RBs (3): Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, Reggie Gilliam
Toughest cut: Lan Larison, who had his best performance of the spring/summer on Saturday.
So I had to find one spot, with Morton making the roster. I don’t think anyone is claiming Hassan Haskins, Larison or Jam Miller. So shove ‘em all on the practice squad - or two of three - let the competition play out a little longer, then decide who gets elevated for week one (remember, you can play that on-again, off-again thing for a bit).
Haskins can play on multiple special teams units and is a physical runner at 228 pounds. That didn’t show up much against the Eagles, but I think they’d prefer a hammer in the #3 role and slide Larison to the practice squad. Yes, he was productive, but he can be overwhelmed in blitz pickup, so I’m not worried someone will claim him.
WRs (6): A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Pop Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Efton Chism
Toughest cut: None, but shoutout to Nick DeGennaro, the Jersey Italian. That was a nice moment for him. Also, I’ll take you behind the scenes. He was one of the players taken to the postgame podium, and when he came in the room, he was like, “You want me to go up there?” Yes. Yes, we do.
I did not put Kayshon Boutte on the roster. Maybe I’m in the minority now, but I still expect him to be moved. I also think they have a plan for Chism, and maybe that plan doesn’t come to full fruition until next year. Vrabel loves his toughness and play strength. It showed up again on Saturday when he got drilled near the sideline but stayed on his feet.
Williams remains a trick-or-treat player. The 69-yard TD on a vertical route was beautiful. The alligator arms on the slant earlier in the game were not. Williams will have a role on most gamedays, but he’s gotta find more consistency or the coaching staff will pigeonhole him.
TEs (3): Hunter Henry, Eli Raridon, Jack Westover
Toughest cut: Tanner Arkin
UDFA Tanner Arkin has faded, and I didn’t really like his work at fullback. This may sound weird, but I think he’s too tall for the position. However, this flip with him and Westover is strictly a matter of semantics. I still see Arkin on the roster in some way, shape or form. Maybe you keep Westover on the initial 53, then, after teams settle their practice squads, put him through waivers, get him to the practice squad, and perhaps elevate Arkin (game plan dependent).
OTs (5): Will Campbell, Morgan Moses, Caleb Lomu, Marcus Bryant, Demetrious Crownover
Toughest cut: None
I like what I’ve seen from Lomu this last week. Not perfect, but it felt like good progress after a middling camp. That’s good news. Lomu looked better on the left side than he has on the right, which makes sense because that’s where he played collegiately.
We’ll have to wait and see on Bryant. The team called it an ankle injury but ruled him out of the game immediately. I don’t think he can hold off Lomu for the swing tackle role, but a substantial injury complicates matters.
IOL (5): Jared Wilson, Mike Onwenu, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Greg Van Roten, Ben Brown
Toughest cut: None. This group is rough.
If I’m Mekhi Butler and James Hudson, I’m burning the tape of the Eagles game/week. Brown’s availability could mess with the overall numbers here. Vrabel said Brown will be out for the rest of the preseason, but then added it could be 2, 4, 6, 8, or 12 weeks. Ummm, that’s quite the range.
As for Van Roten, Josh McDaniels loves him, and the Giants felt like he played really well for them.
Edge (4): Dre’Mont Jones, Elijah Ponder, Gabe Jacas, Bradyn Swinson
Toughest cut: None
Not only am I worried about the depth here, but I’m also worried about the starters. Ponder getting starter treatment and not playing in the preseason tells you all you need to know. He could use the reps, for goodness sakes. But they are so thin, Ponder is being treated like an untouchable. Not great.
Swinson makes the roster after being a tough cut in last week’s version, but I’m not thrilled about it. Could absolutely see them claiming someone on cutdown day, or swinging a player-for-player trade, depending on how they feel about Harold Landry (PUP) and his rehab. Landry has been more visible over the last week, running on flat ground and on the hill, and doing some band work (no, not the tuba or slide trombone).
DTs (6): Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Joshua Farmer, Corey Durden, Leonard Taylor, DaQuan Jones (currently a free agent)
Toughest cut: Eric Gregory, who was on the last 53. But if you told me this was Taylor, I’d get it.
If Jones is in shape, sign him. He played a lot of snaps for the Bills last year, and while there were some minor signs of decline, he was Buffalo’s best defender in its playoff loss. He won’t be Khyiris Tonga, but if he can give 12-15 snaps a game at a solid level, that's worth it to me.
Vrabel called that timeout in the first half to rip into the defense - “dogshit” was the word he used - and some of that was about the interior getting the ball shoved down their throat.
LBs (4): Robert Spillane, Christian Ellis, K.J. Britt, Shaq Thompson (currently a free agent).
Toughest cut: None. Not a deep group. Chad Muma and Khalil Jacobs were on my last 53. Both gone here, but one or both will end up on the practice squad.
After making a push to start perhaps, Muma has had a brutal last two weeks. He missed two tackles and took another bad angle to take him out of a play vs. the Eagles Saturday night. The week prior, Muma wasn’t good in either the joint practice or the preseason game. He has fallen on the depth chart, and here he falls right off the game-day roster.
Meanwhile, Thompson was here for a visit. He may be 32, but give me a guy who started and played nearly 600 snaps for the Bills over the Britt/Muma/Jacobs trio.
CBs (6): Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones, Karon Prunty, Charles Woods, Kindle Vildor
Toughest cut: Channing Canada, but I’d be very surprised if he’s not ticketed for the practice squad. Personally, I like him more than Prunty, but one was drafted, and the other was not, so…
The clock is ticking on Gonzalez. If he’s not out there for that Monday practice following preseason game #3, ruh roh. I continue to report a gap between the player’s ask and what the Pats are willing to pay. The money given (guaranteed) to Devon Witherspoon in the first year-plus of his renegotiated contract went from $23 million to $59 million. That’s stark, and Gonzalez wants more. There’s also been chatter in league circles that they aren’t seeing eye-to-eye on the number of years of the deal.
Was surprised Woods didn’t play Saturday and Vildor did. I think Vildor has been the better player for the last two weeks, and I would trust him more than Woods.
Safety (4): Kevin Byard, Craig Woodson, Dell Pettus, John Saunders Jr.
Toughest cut: Mike Brown, was playing late in the 4th quarter Saturday. If that happens again on Thursday, goodnight, Irene.
I don’t love the 4th guy here, but I’ll bet on the younger, developing player (trusting that the coaching staff can level him up) over Brown, who lost all momentum gained in the spring. I wouldn’t mind Eliot Wolf and company eyeing an add at this position either. Of course, if whatever caused Woodson to leave practice on Thursday is more long-term (radio silence on this), that could change the math for Brown.
STs (4): Andy Borregales, Bryce Baringer, Julian Ashby, Brendan Schooler (NFI)
We haven’t seen Schooler practice, but I did see him running on the lower practice field this week. Maybe closing in on a return to play?
PUP: Harold Landry.