FOXBOROUGH - Sunday’s game against the Bills won’t feature the best defense the Patriots have seen all year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t present a challenge.
Sean McDermott, who has gotten more hands-on this season after letting coordinator Bobby Babich do most of the heavy lifting last year, has long woven a spell against Josh McDaniels and his scheme, dating back to the tail end of Tom Brady’s time in New England.
The GOAT threw more interceptions than touchdowns during his final two seasons with the Pats, and even had a game where he completed just 18-of-39 throws for 150 yards. You would have to think long and hard about teams having repeated success against Brady during the latter stages of his career, when he famously said, “I have the answers to the test.”
Now we have this latest iteration of McDaniels in New England, and while Drake Maye truly announced his presence with authority that October night at Highmark Stadium in leading the Pats to a last-second win, he, too, couldn’t find the end zone with any of his passes. That’s not the be-all, end-all, but another example of McDermott’s Bills preventing or at least limiting the thing the Pats do the best.
“I think I said it the first time we played them, but really, as well-coordinated a group as we'll play all year, they do so many things to challenge you before the snap, and then there's a whole litany of things that happen once the ball is in the quarterback's hands,” McDaniels said on Thursday. “So really, really well coordinated at all three levels. Disguise. Show you one thing, do something else.
“There's a variety and a volume to what they play on defense. Some teams that play a lot of different things and use a lot of different schematic elements in their defense don't do a lot of them well. This is not the case. The Bills play a lot and do a lot well.”
Luckily for the Pats, Maye has excelled in a number of areas, and a big one leading into this hat-and-t-shirt tilt at Gillette is his performance against disguised looks. Per Sumer Sports, Maye has faced disguised coverages at just a tick over 35% and yet somehow has a higher completion percentage versus those than he does overall (76% to 71%) and has just one interception in 136 attempts. Trust me, that is not normal, especially for a second-year signal caller. Why?
“Just seeing it post-snap. I think that’s one of the biggest things that you hear about from college is disguise in coverage, them flipping the rotation or starting rotation and going back,” Maye said of his success. “I think it's good for me to see it from our defense all of training camp. I remember those days. Our defense does a great job of showing down one side and blitzing two off the other edge, some of the same stuff that Buffalo does. They’re really good at disguising, and just trying to see that they’ve got to go to what they're going to play at the end of the day, after the snap. Just trying to play fast, play smart, and just do my best to see it post-snap and make a decision.”
Of course, Maye’s thrived against just about everything defenses have thrown at him this year. He has a passer rating over 100 vs both cover 3 and cover 4, and over 90 against cover 2. Heck, the only coverage he has a negative EPA against is cover zero (-0.322), and no team can live in that. Maye also sports a negative EPA in the red zone, and that’s one that will eventually have to change if this team is going to start scoring touchdowns instead of kicking field goals. But overall, it’s been a master class from a relatively inexperienced pro, a quick mastery (or something close to it), or, as impressive, an ability to solve problems both in a game and certainly by the following week.
“It's obviously challenging to be able to get it quickly,” McDaniels said. “ And we're going to see new - we saw some things last week (vs. Giants) that we didn't do as well as we wish we would have. And we're trying to figure out how we can close the circle on that, too. So I don't know, it's a never-ending process, and improving is something that we work hard on each week to try to put our best product out there at the end of the year. I think he's committed to that. I think he's dedicated to it in every way.
“And again, this position is so - it's just different, unique, because it's not just physical. There's a mental side to it. There's a preparation side to it. There's the chess match that happens during the course of the game. There's understanding what one thing might be used to set up something else, and how that might affect us. So he's trying to work hard at everything. And I know there were some things that happened a couple of weeks ago that he made some progress on, and that list is still long, and we're still working at it, but I'm really proud of the effort that he's put in to try to fix some of the things that people try to hurt you with. And that will continue. There's no question that will continue.”
For his part, Maye has bought into the coaching, and of striking the balance between risk and reward. There have been more throwaways in recent games and fewer hits. He continues to do an excellent job of taking care of the football. In short, Maye’s been a damn good student.
“Just trying to make the right play,” he said. “That's what I'm back there trying to do every time with the football: try to make the right play. I know I haven't done that every time, and I’ve still put the ball in harm's way a few times, but my job is to try to protect the football and get it to the guys that are better at running than I am and get us in the right plays.”
As the stakes grow, that approach will become more and more important, but based on his performance week after week, it’s something that everyone - coaches, players, and fans - should feel comfortable with. Maye’s play and preparation have warranted that level of trust.