We’ve had a couple of days to digest the Celtics' start to the season. At 15-9, they are third in the East and eighth overall in the NBA. It’s obviously unexpected, which begs the obvious question: how much of this is actually real?
So let’s dive into what’s been happening this season to play a game of “real or fake” with the Celtics, and figure out what’s sustainable moving forward.
- .625 winning percentage: FAKE
I don’t think the Celtics are going to win 51 games, which is the pace they're on right now. I don’t expect them to bottom out, but I feel like they're picking up some wins against some teams at the right time. I do think they're a good team, but they're probably more of a 13-11 team than 15-9. Those couple of wins (against the Lakers without Luka Dončić and LeBron James, for example) are the difference between a 51-win pace and a 44-win pace.
This year’s team has also been pretty lucky in terms of injuries (the Jayson Tatum injury notwithstanding). The guys on this roster have been pretty healthy, so I do expect a couple of guys to miss a few games here and there, which will impact their ability to win these games.
Their margin for error is still very thin. A little variation somehow and things can change quickly.
On a related note:
- Home court in first round of the playoffs?: FAKE
I don’t expect them to hold onto a top-four seed. Right now, only 1.5 games separate the third-seed Celtics from the ninth-seed Hawks, so a couple of losses could drop them right back down to the bottom of the standings.
So right now, the standings mean nothing. I think the only real part of the East standings might be the Knicks in second. They are the most fully-formed team right now, and if they can figure out their road woes, they are in line for a top-two seed.
The Pistons will come back down to earth a bit, but they are good enough to stick around the top half of the standings. The question then becomes who grabs the next two seeds?
Orlando is a big question mark because of their injuries, but if they can work Paolo Banchero back into the mix and get through the loss of Franz Wagner for the next few weeks, they’ll be in position to hold on. It’s taken a little bit for Desmond Bane to get comfortable, but he’s ripped off a few 37-point games recently, so he’s stepping in to a leadership role that makes it easier for the Magic to power through this spot.
That leaves the Cavs to get their act together, which I trust a little bit more than Boston’s ability to hold onto the third seed. That trust might go away if Darius Garland can’t figure out how to make his toe comfortable this season, but I do think they will figure things out as they get guys back from injury.
Ultimately, I think the Celtics will be a playoff team and avoid the play-in tournament. However, I expect them to drop to fifth or sixth, partly because of their own leveling off, and partly because I think other teams have a higher ceiling.
- Jordan Walsh, elite defender: REAL
I don’t think that's going anywhere any time soon. His positioning and ability to stay in front of players is incredible, and when he’s screened, his length and quickness allow him to still contest shots from behind so a defender still feels his presence. I’ve talked about his ability to poke the ball free and start transition chances, and I think the next step for him there is to work with some of the point guards to learn some tricks in the open court. If he can learn how to handle himself in those open court situations, then he’ll become even more effective.
More than anything, his mentality has allowed him to thrive this season. He’s no longer playing too fast or getting too caught up in moments.
“He's been in the gym with us for like three years, two full years now,” Payton Pritchard said of Walsh before the team flew to Milwaukee for tomorrow’s game. “He's ready for his moment.”
- Jordan Walsh’s shooting (45.7% from 3): FAKE (ish)
The ball is coming off his hand more consistently this season, which makes me feel like the shot is going in when he shoots it. Maybe he is more conscious of his release point, or maybe it’s just fixing his base to get more power in his shot so his upper body doesn’t have to do as much work, but whatever it is, it’s working.
However, 45.7% from 3 is unsustainable. Steph Curry’s best season was 45.5%, so you’ll excuse me if I don’t think Walsh is a better shooter than that. Walsh is shooting a low volume, taking only two per game and 35 total all season. So he’ll be prone to some wild swings for a little while.
For example, if he only misses his next two 3-pointers, he’ll drop 2.5%. Water will find its level, but I think Walsh’s shooting looks good enough for me to believe he’ll level off at a good percentage nonetheless. I’ll be happy if he settles at 38%, which is basically what Derrick White is shooting as a Celtic.
Everyone here would eagerly jump at the chance for Walsh to become a White-level shooter. I think that's attainable.
- Josh Minott’s shooting (44.6% from 3): FAKE
I am significantly less confident in Minott’s shooting form. It has too many moving parts for me to believe it’s going to fall consistently.
Maybe he’s got some kind of Jim Furyk thing going on and the funky, non-traditional form will continue working for him, but I’m not buying that just yet. He’s shooting 46.2% on above-the-break 3-pointers, which is ridiculous. That's the fifth in the NBA among players who have taken 39 or more (which is how many he’s taken this season).
There's no way Minott is that good from that spot.
Also, he’s shooting 3-12 (25%) from the left corner and 8-14 (57%) from the right corner, so there's some evidence that some kind of correction is coming.
- Jaylen Brown’s All-NBA season: REAL
While I do expect a little leveling of his mid-range shooting percentage (currently 49.6%, up from 40% last season, 43% the season before that, and 47% the season before that), I do think his overall play is sustainable.
Actually, Walsh’s emergence as a defender is part of why, because Brown no longer feels the need to take on the other team’s best player. That can be delegated to Walsh, which allows Brown to help a little more and save a little energy on the defensive end by guarding a lesser player.
That doesn’t mean Brown doesn’t play defense anymore, but it does mean he can save himself for the offensive end a bit.
Brown’s efficiency numbers are great, even as his usage has jumped to 36% (up from 28.9% last season and a career-high by nearly 5%). His true shooting is at a career-high 58.9%. He’s refocused his shot profile to focus more on getting into the mid-range, as evidenced by a 27.2% 3-point attempt rate, which is the first time in his career that it’s below 32%. He’s taking nearly five more 2-pointers per 100 possessions than last season, and he’s getting to the free-throw line three more times per 100 possessions. He leads the NBA is 2-pointers made and attempted per 100 possessions this season.
On top of that, his assist rate is at a career-high 25%, 3.6% higher than last season’s career-high. And while his turnover percentage is up at a career-high as well, it’s only up 1.2% over his career average, which is acceptable considering the huge increase in his usage.
The only thing that could keep Brown from making one of the All-NBA teams right now is missing the 65-game threshold, and so far, he’s only missed one game. However, that 65-game rule could open the door for him to ascend to the first team. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama were in the early-season MVP discussion, but they are both already perilously close to missing out on qualifying. Removing those two from the mix pushes Brown up the ladder. Even if he does level off a little, I think Brown is a lock for All-NBA, and his chances of making the first team are getting better as other guys drop off.
- Celtics 2nd best offensive rating (122 points per 100 possessions): REAL
I think the four games Boston has scored 131 or more are doing a lot of work in these ratings. They’ve had 10 games so far with offensive ratings above their 122 season average, seven of which are above 131.
I’m tempted to say this number is a bit high, but I don’t think it's really out of whack. I wrote in the season preview that “Boston’s offense will probably look pretty good for most of the year. They have talented scorers, some good passers, and a play style that should allow them to pile up a few points,” and that's coming to pass.
Even if Walsh and Minott see their shooting level off, increases in White and Pritchard’s percentages will more than make up for it because they shoot a much heavier volume. Meanwhile, the Celtics have found some high-level defense in their small-ball lineups, so that's probably going to help them put up a bunch of points every night.
The Celtics take the third-most shots per game in the NBA. Their defense and offensive rebounding (13 per game, 5th in the NBA) allow them to a lot of bites at the apple. Even if they slide from second, they will still remain in the top five.
- Celtics 17th in defensive rating (114.8 points per 100 possessions): REAL
They are probably going to rise a little because of the steals, but they will still give up a lot of points because they still foul too much, and they're still not a great defensive rebounding team. However, we can go back to the season preview, when I wrote “their rebounding will hurt their defense, but the Celtics just need to be good enough in that area that they can compensate elsewhere.”
They've climbed to a 66.3% defensive rebounding rate. No matter how I adjust the sliders over this successful stretch, this percentage pretty much stays where it is. They're at 66.3% over the five-game winning streak and 66.2% over the 8-2 10-game stretch. This is what they're going to be.
And that will be good enough on some nights, where their offensive rebounding percentage (33.3%, 7th in the NBA) will make up for the second chance points they allow. If the shooting and points off turnovers are where they should be, then the Celtics are going to win.
However, if those other elements aren’t there, then they will lose.
This is why I think their defense will stay in the middle of the pack for a while. And it’s also why I think this successful stretch of games is a product of a lot of things going right for them.
This whole exercise is an effort to figure out who these guys really are. After a few days to chew on it, I think they’ve hit on some things that have worked well lately, like the smaller lineups, and they're shooting the ball well enough to get some wins. I still think their flaws remain, and on nights where someone like Walsh or Minott come back down to earth, they’ll need outlier shooting from someone to make up the difference in order to win.
The margin of error remains thin for them, but what they’ve done so far is impressive. It’s a testament to the work they’ve done and the pride these guys have for winning basketball. Sorry if this part feels like pandering to the audience, but this is where team culture comes into play. They were never going to tank because too many guys take too much pride in being their best at all times.
That they’ve done all this in 24 games is impressive. This next portion of the schedule will present new challenges. I think it’s important to keep the perspective of early season swings in mind as we watch some of these numbers fluctuate, but ultimately I think enough of what we’re seeing is real enough to believe the Celtics are a good team. Where they take it from here will be very interesting.
"At the end of the day, we've kept our competitive character, we kept our willingness to want to get better, and we chip away at the things that we got to get better at – our identity, the details, the execution, all those things that go into it," Joe Mazzulla said. "Just have an understanding of what Celtics basketball looks like, what gives us a chance to win every night, and how much can we do that.”