We’ve had a couple of days to digest the Celtics' start to the season. At 15-9, they are third in the East and eighth overall in the NBA. It’s obviously unexpected, which begs the obvious question: how much of this is actually real?
So let’s dive into what’s been happening this season to play a game of “real or fake” with the Celtics, and figure out what’s sustainable moving forward.
- .625 winning percentage: FAKE
I don’t think the Celtics are going to win 51 games, which is the pace they're on right now. I don’t expect them to bottom out, but I feel like they're picking up some wins against some teams at the right time. I do think they're a good team, but they're probably more of a 13-11 team than 15-9. Those couple of wins (against the Lakers without Luka Dončić and LeBron James, for example) are the difference between a 51-win pace and a 44-win pace.
This year’s team has also been pretty lucky in terms of injuries (the Jayson Tatum injury notwithstanding). The guys on this roster have been pretty healthy, so I do expect a couple of guys to miss a few games here and there, which will impact their ability to win these games.
Their margin for error is still very thin. A little variation somehow and things can change quickly.
On a related note:
- Home court in first round of the playoffs?: FAKE
I don’t expect them to hold onto a top-four seed. Right now, only 1.5 games separate the third-seed Celtics from the ninth-seed Hawks, so a couple of losses could drop them right back down to the bottom of the standings.
So right now, the standings mean nothing. I think the only real part of the East standings might be the Knicks in second. They are the most fully-formed team right now, and if they can figure out their road woes, they are in line for a top-two seed.
The Pistons will come back down to earth a bit, but they are good enough to stick around the top half of the standings. The question then becomes who grabs the next two seeds?
Orlando is a big question mark because of their injuries, but if they can work Paolo Banchero back into the mix and get through the loss of Franz Wagner for the next few weeks, they’ll be in position to hold on. It’s taken a little bit for Desmond Bane to get comfortable, but he’s ripped off a few 37-point games recently, so he’s stepping in to a leadership role that makes it easier for the Magic to power through this spot.
That leaves the Cavs to get their act together, which I trust a little bit more than Boston’s ability to hold onto the third seed. That trust might go away if Darius Garland can’t figure out how to make his toe comfortable this season, but I do think they will figure things out as they get guys back from injury.
Ultimately, I think the Celtics will be a playoff team and avoid the play-in tournament. However, I expect them to drop to fifth or sixth, partly because of their own leveling off, and partly because I think other teams have a higher ceiling.
- Jordan Walsh, elite defender: REAL
I don’t think that's going anywhere any time soon. His positioning and ability to stay in front of players is incredible, and when he’s screened, his length and quickness allow him to still contest shots from behind so a defender still feels his presence. I’ve talked about his ability to poke the ball free and start transition chances, and I think the next step for him there is to work with some of the point guards to learn some tricks in the open court. If he can learn how to handle himself in those open court situations, then he’ll become even more effective.
More than anything, his mentality has allowed him to thrive this season. He’s no longer playing too fast or getting too caught up in moments.
“He's been in the gym with us for like three years, two full years now,” Payton Pritchard said of Walsh before the team flew to Milwaukee for tomorrow’s game. “He's ready for his moment.”
- Jordan Walsh’s shooting (45.7% from 3): FAKE (ish)