Apologize for the delay ... travel and short week got me a little backed up.
The more data we get on Drake Maye as the Patriots' starting quarterback, the more I realize that he's wrecking my grading system - or at least exposing some flaws.
For years and through different types of quarterbacks, from Tom Brady to Mac Jones and now Maye, my rudimentary grading system has been fairly accurate at giving me a blunt tool to tell whether a quarterback played well or not, no matter what the traditional stats say. Stats like completion percentage and passer rating can definitely lie.
But Maye's performance against the Bucs, and the resulting middle-of-the-road grade that came out of it, is going to cause me to re-evaluate my grading system after the season.
It's not rocket science — and it's certainly not all that special. It's pretty simple. Basically, I attempt to determine if the quarterback did the right thing on each play. If there's an incompletion, like Maye had early in this game, what was the reason? Was it inaccuracy? Was there pressure, which excuses the miss? Was the receiver, if they were the proper target, open on the play or not? I didn't fault Maye early in this game for pressure/receivers not being open. Special plays get an extra half point. Big mistakes, namely preventable turnovers, get another minus half point.
But Maye's play is not being accurately portrayed in my grade, in my opinion. Most of Maye's negative plays these days are due to the pressure he incurs (a sack, 3.5 knockdowns in this game). I only downgraded him for two normal plays as the quarterback — the decision to throw to Hunter Henry on 2nd and 3 in the second quarter, and the interception (one of the knockdowns was due to a late throw to Austin Hooper in the first quarter, so that might count as well). I don't think the pressures and QB decisions should be measured the same. I think that leads to an inaccurate grade.
Similarly, Maye has some plays that are beyond special. He had four plus-plus (elite) plays in this game: the touchdown to Kyle Williams with pressure, the touchdown to Stefon Diggs on 4th down, the 3rd-and-7 throw to Mack Hollins while under tremendous pressure, and the absolutely ridiculous 54-yard throw to Hollins under pressure and thrown well before Hollins was even open.
I think I'm going to add another level to the plus plays. There's good (plus), elite (plus-plus) and I think I need an absurd level (plus-plus-plus), and same could go on the negative side, like the interception that nearly blew the game and took points off the board.
Maye's just that special, and he has special tools that I don't think should be graded the same way I did with pocket quarterbacks like Brady and Jones.
Good job, Drake. You've thrown my mind into a blender. Champagne problems for Patriots fans, I'm sure. But I just had to vent about it.
Here are the positional ratings against the Buccaneers:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
As I said before, his rating does not do his play justice in this game. They don't win this game without his four absurdly good plays, and his only true negative play was a big one — the interception. His upper-level plays were just on another level in this game. ... On the interception, the play was absolutely there early. They faked the quick game to Stefon Diggs, and then Maye is supposed to quickly throw a pop pass to Hollins high and to the back of the end zone where he catches it, and does a quick toe tap on the end line. Maye just kind of blacked out for a second — he does that sometimes, especially on his scrambles where he doesn't throw it away — and didn't just throw it away, which he should have. ... There should not have been a flag on the hit near the sideline. Maye was not out of bounds, and he doesn't have head/neck protection outside the pocket as a runner. I've been worried about a hit like that for a while. It's a half-the-distance penalty ... somebody is going to say the hit is worth it, even if flagged. Maye has to protect himself from renegades, especially in some of these throwaway games to end the season where other players are trying to put good film out there. ... 23 percent of the pressure was on Maye in this game.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
No, I don't give TreVeyon Henderson a ton of credit for his touchdowns, outside of his speed. On the first touchdown, he was untouched (thanks to a blatant hold by Hollins and a great block from Morgan Moses) and the deep safety was on the other side of the field. On the second one, the Bucs were in goal line and Henderson got the crease he needed from Will Campbell and Khyiris Tonga, but at least Henderson did step out of a tackle on the play, so that was plus-plus. ... I don’t want hear anything about Henderson needs a bigger role or whatever. Those two plays were blocked well, he didn’t have to do much. He was 12 for 23 (1.9 on his other carries), though that was the blocking and the Bucs kind of kicking the Patriots’ ass up front. Henderson’s carries: 16, 0, 1, 5, 0, 0, 55, 2, 1, 3, 3-yard reception, -2, -4, 1, 69. ... Interesting that Terrell Jennings got the first three touches of the game. Sure seems like he was supposed to be the lead back until he got hurt. ... Jack Westover tackled Henderson at one point. Tonga was great again with a big blocks on 4th and 1, and on the second Henderson TD.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
They were all good in this game, and blocking was pretty good for the most part (Hooper gave up a knockdown on one of Maye's ridiculous throws). ... Hollins' route on the 54-yarder where he faked an in at the sticks to get the corner to bite. ... Diggs' release on the 4th down touchdown was elite. Winfield had no chance. But he did decline the chance to block a safety on a red zone carry. Not the first time.
Offensive line (2 out of 5)
The two is strictly for Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses, who had clean sheets in pass protection (if Haason Reddick was active, that might have been different). ... The other three guys pretty much got their butts kicked, mostly by Yaya Diaby (Campbell) and the exquisite Vita Vea (Wilson, Bradbury). Kind of appropriate all three guys came out with the same grade.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
Milton Wliiams has just been absurd the past three games, and four of the last five.
The Patriots have needed it because Christian Barmore and Harold Landry have been very quiet, especially against the Bucs. ... There was leakage in the run game for the first time, mostly from Barmore, K'Lavon Chaisson, Anfernee Jennings and Cory Durden. Still, it wasn't that bad.
Linebackers (3 out of 5)
Jack Gibbens continues to be outstanding, especially in the pass game (blew up a screen again and two plus pass tackles). ... Robert Spillane was just OK with a poor zone coverage (31 yards) and a 12-yard run gap.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
Craig Woodson's stop of Cade Otton was the biggest defensive play of the game. Elite closing speed and recognition. I don't blame him for the late touchdown because it was a perfect pass. ... Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez each gave up a touchdown. Gonzalez gave up three plays of over 20 yards, including his penalty..
THREE UP
QB Drake Maye: They don't win that game without his four elite plays.
DT Milton Williams: He was the entire defensive line, basically.
DT/FB Khyiris Tonga: His two-way play was outstanding, so he just edged out Jack Gibbens, Mike Onwenu and Craig Woodson.
THREE DOWN
LG Jared Wilson, LT Will Campbell and C Garrett Bradbury: Combined for 12.5 pressures and a 1/-22 +/- split.