ON THE WAY TO TAMPA VIA ORLANDO — I was all set to dive into this column by taking the normal "midseason" out by presenting my cumulative ratings for the Patriots through nine games, along with a few awards. And we'll get to that, along with what worries me about the Bucs, where the Patriots can capitalize, some game film, and my game pick.
But I keep coming back to one simple thought: If the Patriots are truly contenders — which it seems most fans and media view them as, given the reaction to the inactivity at the trade deadline — then they should win this game, even comfortably.
This is the half-Bucs the Patriots are facing on Sunday. For all the hand-wringing about the Patriots not having Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte this week, the Bucs have been and continue to be in much worse shape injury-wise. They have one real receiver left in Emeka Egbuka, and don't have dynamic running back Bucky Irving. The Bucs won't have their best edge player in Haason Reddick. WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are on IR, along with Cody Mauch, their best interior lineman, and edge Calijah Kancey. Oh, and Chris Godwin is still out. The Patriots could have been facing Baker Mayfield throwing to Evans, Godwin, McMillan and Egbuka, with the ability to hand it off or check it down to Irving. What we and the Patriots will see on Sunday will be something entirely different — Tampa has converted just 27% of third downs in the past three games.
Why shouldn't the Patriots win this game?
I look at the Bucs, and I'm not sure how they're going to get pressure without bringing extra rushers, which I would not do against Drake Maye. Their linebackers are old or slow. They can't really protect Baker Mayfield, and shouldn't the Patriots be able to shut down Egbuka? Throw in that Maye had kind of a wakeup call last week against the Falcons in regards to the pressure he allows to happen and turnovers, I have a hard time seeing how the Patriots lose this game ... unless they're not as good as their 7-2 record.
This game should be in the Patriots' wheelhouse, but will it? We'll get into that in a little bit. But first, let's get on with a midseason checkup ...
Offensive MVP: Maye. Duh. I thought he might start playing at this level right around now with some experience for him and others in Josh McDaniels' system. His ascension was really fast.
Offensive MVP not named Maye: Stefon Diggs. About the only thing I can criticize him for is his run blocking, and who really cares, right?
Least valuable player: Kyle Williams, but some of that is just the situation that comes with being the No. 5 receiver on a team without many injuries. Inconsistent playing time doesn't help, but that's the deal. Will he get a chance to do more with Kayshon Boutte out? Quite possibly. The Patriots didn't promote a receiver from the practice squad. Tough possible matchup against the lanky Jamel Dean.
Most improved: Jack Westover. At the beginning of the season, I thought moving him from tight end to fullback was a big waste of time - just go get a real fullback, like Jakob Johnson (who was available at one point). But Westover has won me over. He's inserting and executing better and better each week. Time for a fullback leak pass. ... I do have to mention Kayshon Boutte, but he started showing this in camp and early in the season. If you were talking about a timeframe from OTAs to now, he'd win in a landslide. Even internally they weren't sure whether he'd make the roster back then.
Biggest surprise: Garrett Bradbury allowing the least amount of pressure on the line. I could have gone with Will Campbell's overall play (especially in the run game, his pass protection has been spotty despite a lot of help).
Biggest worry in the second half: Maye taking too many hard shots. Time to get back to being a ball distributor that can provide big plays, not a guy hunting for them more often than not. Know the opponent, adjust the internal clock each week.
What I want to see more of: Khyiris Tonga at fullback. Tonga Truck is paving roadway. Pleading with McDaniels to give me blocking matchup on Sunday between Tonga and Vita Vea. Pretty please?
Defensive MVP: Milton Williams. Hey, where's that jack wagon that said Williams wasn't worth close to the money the Patriots paid him, but maybe he'd get there by the end of Year 2? Yeah, that guy's an idiot. Only took him about four games. ... Marcus Jones was a close second.
Least valuable player: Alex Austin. Man, what happened to him? Last season, he looked like a solid No. 4/spot starter at cornerback. Now he's a liability and demoted behind some guys named Charles Woods.
Most improved: Cory Durden. While he doesn't really stack the impactful plays, he doesn't make many mistakes and he's a solid piece at the best position group on the team.
Biggest surprise: Khyiris Tonga. He certainly was impressive in the summer in stints, but I don't think anyone expected this level of play. He's making himself a lot of money.
Biggest worry in the second half: Injuries. If the Patriots lose any two of Chaisson, Landry, Williams, Barmore, Spillane, Gonzalez, Hawkins and Woodson, they're pretty screwed. Think the pass defense is bad now? Wait until you see that.
What I want to see more of: More man coverage. The Patriots stink in zone coverage. I mean, they smell. Time to let Gonalez, Jones and Davis do that they do best, and figure out the other two man coverage (linebacker and safety). That will help the pressure get home a little bit.
A look at the matchup, including what worries me about the Bucs, where the Patriots can take advantage, video analysis, top matchups, and my game pick:
What worries me about the Buccaneers
- Baker Mayfield in a shootout. The dude seems to love to live in chaos - the crazier the game/situation, the better he is. Patriots need to squeeze the pocket on him and make him throw over the trees in the trenches. Shake and Bake is really the only thing that worries me about the game.
- Vita Vea. The Bucs' nose tackle is the best in the game and he's so powerful. He can wreck the line of scrimmage all by himself.
- If Todd Bowles pulls a Jedi Mind Trick on Maye. I'm sure you have heard how much Bowles likes to blitz, especially from the secondary, and how he is great at disguising and changing pre- and post-snap. But Maye's really good against the blitz and man coverage, and it allows him to use his legs. If I'm Bowles, I'm dialing back the blitzes and concentrating on mixing up zone coverages before and after the snap. Keep Maye in the pocket, make him have to check down all day. He might get an itchy trigger finger.
- Egbuka. The Falcons only had one receiver last week, and the Patriots still let him go off. So my confidence is low when it comes to these Patriots making an opponent play left-handed. We haven't seen it yet.
- Tampa's D vs. 11 personnel. The Patriots' best personnel grouping on offense is 11 with three receivers (3rd in EPA). Well, the Bucs are 2nd in EPA stopping 11 personnel.
Where the Patriots can take advantage
- 12 personnel. The Patriots don't run a ton of formations with two tight ends compared to the rest of the league, but they're pretty good at it (11th in EPA). The Bucs are 25th in EPA against 12 personnel. I think the Bucs prefer to get exotic in nickel as opposed to base. So the more LBs you can get on the field (a weak spot for Tampa - the safeties are good), the more it will force them to simplify things.
- Related ... passes to the middle of the field. Use Henry and Hooper (along with Diggs and Douglas) to pepper the middle of the field where the Bucs are 29th in EPA.
- McDaniels always has answers, Maye just has to use them. Chances are, because he's young, Maye is going to see at least a few things that confuse him, just like last week. But this time, Maye has to know where his checkdowns are, and he has to be content to take them, at least for a while. Drake, look at me, it's OK to be Checkdown Charlie. Say it. Again.
Top matchups
WR Emeka Egbuka vs. CB Carlton Davis. Who knows how the Patriots are going to handle the talented rookie, but let's hope they learned what not to do from last week.
LT Tristan Wirfs vs. ED K'Lavon Chaisson. If the excellent Wirfs shuts down Chaisson, I'm worried about the lack of pressure on Mayfield.
LB Lavonte Davis vs. RB TreVeyon Henderson. Bucs are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the RB pass. If Maye can check it down to Henderson early, he's going to have room to run.
WR Demario Douglas vs. CB Jacob Parrish. The third-round rookie has a promising future but he has some issues keeping up when the Bucs go man to man. We might see Pop pop another one.
NT Vita Vea vs. C Garrett Bradbury. If Bradbury had a sore hip after last week, he might need traction after going 12 rounds with the powerful Vea.
DTs Milton Williams and Christian Barmore vs. Bucs' interior line. LG Ben Bredeson, C Graham Barton and RG Luke Haggard are underwhelming. The big boys should eat.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 6-3 straight up, 6-3 spread.
Line: Bucs -2.5. O/U: 48.5
As much as I think the Patriots should win this game, I don't think they will, and I don't have a good reason for it. It could partly be the warm weather, and that it might rain by the end of the game. There's also the fact that I've covered a lot of games in this stadium, and weird, unpredictable things tend to happen. I think the stadium is on some weird axis or something. Or maybe it's the pirate ship and that stupid cannon. I don't like Bowles coming off a bye week, and I don't like Mayfield being on the other side. The guy never stops coming. And I'm not sold Maye is past his turnover/sack thing. Should be fun, however. I'm hoping for a shootout between Maye and Mayfield.
Buccaneers 27, Patriots 24.