The Boston Celtics' regular season starts tonight, but they are in no way close to their final form. I guess that can be said of a lot of team coming out of the blocks for an 82-game season, but the Celtics are an especially unfinished product.
That stands to reason for a team remaking its image after the injury to Jayson Tatum and the departures of Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet. When five of the most important players on a recent champion are replaced by four who were no longer wanted by their former teams, fitting those players in does tend to take some time.
It’s like losing 50 pounds and then going to the clearance rack for a new outfit. Some things you thought would work just don’t look right. It might take some different combinations, and maybe letting the tailor make a few cuts and stitches, to get the look down.
Right now, Joe Mazzulla is in the dressing room trying on the first of the armful of garments he brought in. The preseason wasn’t really helpful to the Celtics, so the regular season will have to be part of the trying out process. The practical application has made a few things clearer, but there's still a lot of work to be done.
Boston’s frontcourt has four distinctly talented bigs who do different things well. Like four points on a square, they might all be equally distant from one another in terms of talent, so none has separated himself as a go-to choice to start on most nights.
“We have a lot of depth and have a lot of guys and I think we have the ability to play a bunch of different ways,” Mazzulla said this week. “We're not going to go out of our way to do (have a specific starting lineup) on purpose, but we're always going to try to take advantage of the matchup and what we have. It’s the same thing with who's starting, who's finishing, and I think all those things play into because of the type of guys that we have, because we can go 10-11 deep, it could be a combination of what's going well that night versus what gives us the best chance versus that matchup, but it's going to change a lot.”
When a starting lineup changes, so do the rotations behind it. We know the stalwarts on this team, and who they play well with will impact who plays and for how long, but it’s also going to be their job to play well with everyone. The pressure on Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser isn’t going to be just personal production. It’s going to involve the growth of the guys around them, so they are going to have to be aware of more than usual.
“Just watching film every single day to know what we're supposed to be doing. The application -- we're still getting there,” Brown said. “We're learning where to be, what to read, what to see. Even when you're tired with where we got to go. Kind of activate our offense in the best way, even through pressure. We're learning and improving along the way. There are going to be some good days. There are going to be some bad days. We just gotta be prepared to dabble. …
The most important thing is not hanging your head after some mistakes or hanging your head after a loss. We just gotta move forward. Put your best foot out there, play good basketball and I think we'll be okay."
The Celtics have been speaking in uncertain terms like that all preseason. There are a lot of if/then statements that require unknowns to come to fruition. For example, Mazzulla was asked if Neemias Queta was where he needed to be entering the season.
“None of us are where we want to be,” he said. “I liked the way he approached the offseason. I liked the way he approached preseason. I like the way he approaches every day. I like the way he approaches the mentality, his mindset and all the things that go into giving himself a chance and the professionalism and he does everything you ask him to do. We believe in him as a player. I think that's all you can ask for. We'll all make mistakes this year. We'll all struggles. We'll all have great times. But at the end of the day, focus on the process and the trust, and we have that in him."
That's what half this Celtics team is right now. Mazzulla has emphasized the process more than the result very often this month. He hates to lose, but I think he’d rather lose having played the exact kind of game he’s hoping for than win the old way. At least to start the season. The early goal for the Celtics is to commit to the style of play and the process of winning, even if the winning isn’t there right away.
That is something we can see starting to change for Boston. Last season, 16% of their possessions were in transition. That increased to 20.3% in the preseason, which doesn’t seem like a monumental change, but it’s right where the Indiana Pacers were last season at sixth in the league. It’s not Josh Minott’s prediction of being the fastest team in the NBA, but it’s a noticeable uptick that is only beginning to take hold.
Isolation time has been nearly cut in half in the preseason, down to 5.5% from 10% last regular season. Four games against bad competition isn’t the best sample size for any of this, but at least Boston has tried to live up to its promises.
Which is what this season is going to be about for everyone.
Brown has to grow into an even more complete player than he’s ever been. He has to have more of a point guard’s mentality, even though he’s going to be the primary scorer.
White has to be more of a focal point than he’s ever been. He has to be willing to take more on his own shoulders, even though he’s forever been the guy who makes the “next right play.” He has to understand that might mean doing more himself.
Anfernee Simons has to adapt more than he has before. It’s fun to call him a Damian Lillard clone and put his step-backs side-by-side to compare the footwork, but he also needs to buy into the commitment to play fast and defend.
Everyone on this team has to adapt, including Brad Stevens. He has to spend this season with a jeweler’s loupe up to his eye, looking for every possible imperfection in his team. When trade season opens, he has to be there in his camo gear hunting for any way to make this team better.
That makes this season a tough one to predict. If Brown’s hamstring becomes a real issue, the dreams of 45 or more wins will go flushing into the Charles. There are high hopes on Causeway street that the style of play will take hold, that the top-end talent will carry the day, and that the coaching commitment to analytically-driven success will lead to a big surprise. But one injury to the wrong person will end that in a hurry.
The first two weeks of the season won’t do them any favors, either. They open up with Joel Embiid and the Sixers, before heading out for a three-in-four on the road in New York, Detroit, and New Orleans. They then play the Cavs, Sixers, and Rockets to round out the first seven games.
That's a murderer’s row for a team still figuring itself out. That stretch might only yield a couple of wins, and a seven-game losing streak to start the year isn’t completely out of the question. They should improve as the year goes on, and this team definitely has the potential for overachievement in them, but what will that look like?
Boston’s offense will probably look pretty good for most of the year. They have talented scorers, some good passers, and a play style that should allow them to pile up a few points. Their rebounding will hurt their defense, but the Celtics just need to be good enough in that area that they can compensate elsewhere. If Boston is the worst defensive rebounding team in the NBA, they will probably be a below .500 team. If they can get to the middle of the pack, then their offensive rebounding and ability to force turnovers can make up the difference.
They are playing an aggressive style of defense that involves calculated risks, especially when someone’s back is turned.
They are taking a lot more chances with these kinds of gambles (watch White in the second clip start get jumpy and start to go but then stop). They are trying to be like those clips of lions at zoos that stalk people with their backs to the glass. They want to be aggressive with those gambles, as well as traps and blitzes. They have a chance to be very good at that this season.
The Celtics were also the sixth-best offensive rebounding team in the preseason and third in points scored off those offensive rebounds. They have a chance to put up a lot of shots with their pace, crashing, and steals. If they can clear enough defensive rebounds, they might live up to their lofty win expectations.
Personally, I see this as a 44 win team, which I think would be very strong considering where they are and how far they need to go. If a few things go better than expected, they might win a few more. If a few things go worse, they could dip below .500.
I’m not taking a potential Jayson Tatum return into account. I’m not sure whether that would help or hurt because he’ll have some considerable rust to knock off if he does come back. I’m also leaving open the possibility that they could be floating around the play-in tournament in mid-March and the team pulls the plug because an opportunity for the lottery is within their grasp. There are a lot of variables that can change where this team lands in April.
But for now, I think 44 wins is very fair. That's where sixth-seed Detroit finished last year, and it’s where I think Boston will finish this year. But as some guys from England wrote once upon a time, it’ll be a long and winding road.