It's certainly no secret: the Patriots can't run the ball without Drake Maye's legs, and they might have hit a low point in the win over the Saints.
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson combined for 45 yards on 22 carries - a minuscule 2.045 yards per carry.
The advanced stats/analytics might be worse. While the passing game is mostly top five in everything, here are some of the rush rankings:
23rd in explosive rush rate
24th in rushes for zero or negative yards (it’s been getting worse … CAR 20%, BUF 27%, NO 39%)
29th in rush yards over expected
30th in rush success rate
32nd in EPA/rush
16th in yards before contact
31st in yards after contact
32nd in rush DVOA (opponent adjusted)
Individually, out of 50 rushers through Week 6:
Rush success rate …. 13th Antonio Gibson, 40th Henderson, 46th Stevenson
Yards before contact …. 18 Gibson, 23 Stevenson, 29 Henderson
Yards after contact … 34 Gibson, 39 Henderson, 50 Stevenson
Rush yards over expected … 27 Gibson, 39 Stevenson, 48 Henderson
What are the issues, can it get better and how does that happen?
Well, let's start with some video analysis from the opening drive of the second half, which illustrated the variety of problems:
On a 3-yard gain, you have Garrett Bradbury and Stevenson combining to leave plays on the field
On a 6-yard gain with Henderson, you have Jared Wilson, not great on the second level, and Henderson possibly able to do more. And then a stuff where Wilson can't physically handle big Davon Godchaux.
From the 2-yard line, Vederian Lowe isn't great, and neither is anyone else. On second down, Will Campbell can't execute a difficult block, and Morgan Moses gets run around.
This is a pretty synopsis of where the Patriots are right now. Basically, it's something different every play.
My distribution of blame in this game (how many times they factored into a run play that wasn’t good, or could have gotten more):
Garrett Bradbury 6
Jared Wilson 5
Mike Onwenu 4
Will Campbell 3
Stevenson 3
Henderson 2
Stephon Diggs 1
Hunter Henry 1 (he was much worse vs. Bills when he was asked to do more; Patriots passed up the edges this week largely)
Morgan Moses 1
As a whole — and a running game is not just about the backs or the line, it's about the entire operation — they are not finishing enough blocks like they are capable of. The plays are designed fine (as illustrated by the decent yards before contact number); it's not like we see many plays where the Patriots are running into four unblocked guys. Most of the time, there’s a hat on a hat, they have good angles. The Patriots don't have many big runs (outside of them being schemed/deception plays) because the runners either aren't running free — they seem to be a little tentative with the turnover issues — or they just don't finish enough blocks to get them free.
Here’s the other thing: Outside of Will Campbell, they have four nice guys blocking on the line. That’s great for the media, they are great to talk to, but that’s not usually the formula for a good running team. You need a bunch of guys who want to freaking bite the kneecaps off guys. Mike Onwenu is never going to pancake anyone. Jared Wilson is just a super nice kid, awesome dude - and not a punisher, plus he's physically overmatched in some matchups as a center playing guard. David Andrews had more gameday a-hole in him than Bradbury. Morgan Moses isn’t much of a run blocker, and he’s like a Walter Payton Man of the Year, not in the running for dirtiest player of the year. They could use more dirtbags who like to eat glass on the line. They just don't have those guys right now.
(For next season, I'm moving Wilson to center, moving on from Onwenu, and getting two physical a-holes at guard, unless you find another tackle and move Campbell inside. Now you're cooking.)
Overall, however, I think they’re getting closer. They have to stay patient with it (for all those THROW THE BALL people, the Patriots are already at a 63-37 run/pass balance), need more time on task, and doing it. As soon as they have a breakout game, I think everyone will relax. There are some plays where they are really close to breaking one. But they have to stick with it.
This is no way to run an offense, not if you want to win big games in the winter. You can't keep asking Drake Maye to be the offense, because his magic will run out either from teams who don't respect the run and just play coverage (think Tom Brady in 2010), he'll start pressing and turning the ball over, or he gets beat up because he's throwing 37 times a game, and running another 10 times.
Have to keep running it. Have to coach it better, and the players have to make the corrections and apply them on the game field. There are no shortcuts or magic plays.
Here are the positional ratings against the Saints:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Drake Maye is playing well, and the team is good enough, with a good quarterback, to be competitive to win every game. If he plays well and he plays to his potential of what he can be, they’re good enough to be competitive. I don't know if they’re good enough to beat everybody they play. But who knows? The league stinks and the AFC is wide open. Will come down to who is playing well and the most healthy at the end of the season. They’re kind of like Junior Chiefs at this point (without the defense and Spags). If Patrick Mahomes doesn't turn it over, gets decent protection, and he makes a handful of difference-making plays, they win. If he doesn't, then they lose. ... Maye again had a handful of elite plays — tight throw to Kayshon Boutte TD, 20-yard scramble out of nowhere, third-down throw to Mack Hollins facing pressure, and the game-sealing backshoulder throw to Boutte. ... I would not say this game was as clean and impressive as the Bills game (probably because of pressure rate of 43%) — from a Saints team that doesn’t really generate pressure). Maye was responsible for 2.5 pressures, had the delay of game penalty, a couple of off-target throws and one minus decision when Stefon Diggs was open and he forced one. ... One thing to monitor going forward. On the next-to-last series, 2nd-13 and 3rd-13, Maye started to drift in the pocket with his shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage. Really no need for it. A couple of his bad habits that I haven't seen in a while.
Running backs (2 out of 5)
We've been over the run game, but Stevenson (3) and Henderson each had some really good blitz pickups, including Henderson on the 25-yard TD to Boutte. Stevenson did drop an awkward screen pass, but the ball was there and he could have gotten something on it. Henderson was not at fault for the 3rd and 1 play where he appeared to be blocking air, like some 1995 Madden Sega Genesis glitch. Henderson was supposed to block the end on the play, possibly for Maye, but the end dropped off the line. Hopefully in the future he's instructed to just turn around and take a pass from Maye, which easily could have converted it, but he's a rookie and I'm sure that particular situation has not come up yet.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
I thought they were all terrific, led by Kayson Boutte and Demario Douglas, who got robbed of another TD on the phantom PI call when he was left wide open on a bust. ... Diggs was solid in a lesser role (I counted his catch on another iffy OPI - it was that good of a throw and catch), but had a few issues in the run game, as did the TEs. ... Hollins had a couple of big catches, and Kyle Williams is getting close, drawing a 21-yard PI call that was also iffy.
Offensive line (2 out of 5)
Thought this was their worst game of the season across the board, but this Saints line is pretty good, especially when Davon Godchaux is motivated and wants to play. The smaller Bradbury and Wilson just got manhandled up front for stretches against the bigger Saints. They can be a handful. ... Campbell (who got a lot of help) and Moses were just ok in this one, but better in pass protection. ... Onwenu graded out the best, but I need to start penalizing him for whiffs in big spots. It. Happens. Every. Week.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4.5 out of 5)
This group continues to play terrific and are just impossible to run against on the interior. ... K'Lavon Chaisson, after missing last week, brought most of the pass rush himself with 6.5 of the team's 16 pressures (41%) as he gave rookie LT Kelvin Banks fits with his speed. ... Khyiris Tonga continued his tour de force with another six impactful plays against the run and pass. Tonga Truck has been absolutely huge this season, and whoever stood on a table for him — I heard it was very much a team effort in the front office — should get a raise. ... Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were a little quieter, but still effective. Barmore's latest count: 16 impactful plays, 0 minus plays in last three games. ... Harold Landry was definitely quiet in this one, and split the touchdown on the Taysom Hill option play with Christian Elliss. Something to monitor with Landry. I'm wondering, as an undersized end, if he gets worn down at times. He'll have no issue with that going back to Tennessee, however.
Linebackers (3.5 out of 5)
Robert Spillane continues to be on a heater as a tackling machine and he's everywhere. I was, however, puzzled why Kellen Moore didn't go after the linebackers more in coverage with Alvin Kamara. Seemed like a no-brainer. ... Elliss had the huge punchout (which I thought was an iffy overturn on review), and a pass breakup (Rattler had an open receiver).
Secondary (3 out of 5)
Marcus Jones had one of the best games I've ever seen from a defensive back, helping to get the Saints off the field five times on third down, including four times that led to just field goals. Also had two pressures (one sack) on his three blitzes. ... Let's not corner blitz with Carlton Davis, exposing Kyle Dugger in coverage against a receiver, ever again. Davis is wildly inconsistent. He had great coverage on Rattler's final pass to get him off his first read, but other times he goes through the motion. And every game, seemingly, he has an injury timeout, and a penalty. ... Christian Gonzalez was sticky outside his penalty and a 21-yarder in soft coverage, but I think most teams are just going to avoid him. I'd rather go after Davis and the Patriots' soft zones in the middle of the field. ... Craig Woodson stepped up with one of his better games. I think the game is starting to slow down.
FIVE UP
CB Marcus Jones: I'm not sure they win this game without his clutch coverage and sack, where he appears to hide behind the rushers.
QB Drake Maye: Upon further review, it was not another career-best grade, but it was still pretty damn good.
WR Kayshon Boutte: Just tremendous physical ball skills.
DE K'Lavon Chaisson: Another Bayou product who went off going back home with a ton of much-needed pressure.
DT Khyiris Tonga: The guy has just been fantastic, and he played with a ton of emotion against the Saints.
THREE DOWN
C Garrett Bradbury: Had a tough time against the Saints' size. And as the center goes, the running game usually goes.
LG Jared Wilson: Also a size and strength mismatch for the rookie, who is struggling getting to the second level and executing.
CB Carlton Davis: Allowed two big pass plays and had another penalty.