Jarren Duran and Nathaniel Lowe headline Red Sox players eligible for arbitration this offseason

Every offseason, teams around Major League Baseball must decide which controlled players deserve raises, which players are potential non-tender candidates, and which to lock in early versus letting the process play out and going to a nasty arbitration hearing to determine their salary for the upcoming season.

For Boston, they have nine players eligible for arbitration this winter, and Craig Breslow must make crucial decisions, including what to do with first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, whether or not to exercise Jarren Duran’s $8 million club option, or buy him out for $100,000 and come up with a new deal.

In addition to Lowe and Duran, starting pitchers Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, relievers Josh Winckowski and Brennan Bernardino, and position players Romy Gonzalez, Connor Wong, and Triston Casas are all eligible for arbitration.

The deadline for offering salary arbitration-eligible and pre-eligible players has not yet been set, but it usually occurs in the last 10 days of November. Players and teams exchange their figures in January in the hopes that it leads to an agreement. If the Sox are unable to come to terms with a player, the two sides will go to arbitration hearings, which will be held in February, with an arbiter choosing either the player’s 2026 salary or the team’s.

Here’s a look at each of the Red Sox’ players eligible for arbitration and what MLBTradeRumors projects their salaries to be, and if Boston could simply cut ties and non-tender them in the coming weeks.

Nathaniel Lowe: The Sox signed Lowe late in the season after the Nationals released him, giving Boston a true first baseman to platoon with Gonzalez down the stretch.

MLBTradeRumors projects Lowe to get $13.5 million for 2026, and it’s highly unlikely the Red Sox will be willing to pay the 30-year-old that figure next season.

There’s a case to be made to bring Lowe back for 2026 with Casas rehabbing back from his knee injury that cost him the entire season. First base has been an extremely volatile position the last handful of years, and Lowe gives Boston an experienced fallback option.

Lowe offers the Red Sox the ability to hit righties, and they could platoon him with Gonzalez, but at the $13.5 million price tag, that would make little sense for Boston. In 140 games against right-handers, Lowe hit .252 with a .762 OPS.

The Red Sox would benefit from someone who can play every day at first base next season, versus another year of platooning. Breslow should consider exploring external options such as Pete Alonso or a trade for Rays' Yandy Diaz, while maintaining a close relationship with Lowe this winter. Lowe is a high-upside player, but not at $13.5 million.

Jarren Duran: When the Sox signed Duran last winter to the one-year, $3.75 million deal that included an $8 million option for 2026, with a $100,000 buyout, including additional escalators, it offered both sides flexibility.

With Boston’s crowded outfield, Duran and Wilyer Abreu are possible candidates to be traded once the offseason is fully underway.

Duran regressed from his 2024 campaign, where he earned his first All-Star nomination and won the All-Star MVP Award. In 2025, he hit .256/.332/.442 with a .774 OPS, 41 doubles, 13 triples, and 16 homers in 157 games. He took a step backwards defensively, with his range decreasing from the 95th percentile in 2024 with 10 outs above average to the 19th percentile and -3 outs above average this season, according to Baseball Savant.

He was a non-factor in the three AL Wild Card games in New York, logging just one hit with four strikeouts, and he made a critical misplay on the Aaron Judge liner to left in Game 2. He failed to hustle for the ball in Game 3 when Giancarlo Stanton launched it off the left field wall.

MLBTradeRumors predicts Duran to file for $8.4 million. Boston can save some cash and just pick up his option, which would make it easier to trade him. While he regressed in 2025, he still offers elite speed and was a coveted trade option for teams ahead of the deadline. The Padres have been connected to Duran for years, and this offseason, AJ Preller could finally land the outfielder in a trade.

Duran has three years of team control remaining, giving the Sox trade value due to the team control. It seems logical that Breslow trades Duran to free up some room on the MLB depth chart while restocking the cupboards.

Tanner Houck: Some people could argue the Sox could non-tender Houck this winter since he will miss a chunk of 2026 recovering from elbow surgery. I’d argue that his projected $3.95 million salary is peanuts compared to the cash they paid to Patrick Sandoval ($5.5 million salary for 2025) to sit on the IL and rehab in Fort Myers this past season. 

When healthy, the former All-Star was a steady rotation piece for the Red Sox. His sharp sinker and fearless demeanor in the strike zone gave Boston a massive boost in 2024. Injuries plagued him last season, and he ultimately went under the knife and had Tommy John surgery.

If Houck wasn't coming back from surgery, he would be looking at a salary anywhere in the $6 to $8 million range, based on his prior production and arbitration escalators. But surgery changes everything. Because of the lost year, his arbitration number would likely stay flat—landing him back at $3.5 million.

You can never have enough pitching, and once he is able to come back, he could offer Boston innings out of the bullpen before ramping back up to being a starter in 2027. Tendering him a contract allows Boston to maintain control and oversee his rehabilitation on their own terms. It’s a small investment for potentially significant future value.

Boston should tender Houck and let him rehab in Fort Myers like they’ve done countless other times with pitchers. His salary is modest and offers little risk from a financial perspective. He provides Boston a rotation piece for 2027; not tendering him allows a team to scoop him up for nothing and reap the high-upside benefits of a former All-Star that can also toss meaningful innings as a reliever.

Kutter Crawford: The 29-year-old came into the 2025 season looking to build off a 33-start season. Instead, quirky injuries led to Crawford missing the entire year.

He is expected to earn $2.75 million this season and is a bargain whether Boston uses him in the rotation to replace the likes of Lucas Giolito or puts him in a trade for another pitcher this offseason. In the modern MLB market, where quality innings are expensive, his $2.75 million projected salary is a bargain, offering teams a cheap starter or even a swingman out of the bullpen.

His two injuries weren’t related to his pitching elbow or shoulder; he had an issue with his knee and wrist. He’s not a dominant arm on the mound, but his 33 starts are attractive for a team needing someone to take the ball every fifth day. Even with a raise, Crawford will remain affordable compared to free-agent alternatives. A veteran with similar production could cost double or triple in the open market.

Crawford will be entering his age-30 season, and his ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter. With young arms like Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, Luis Perales, and others pushing for innings, the Red Sox may want to open a rotation spot for someone with higher upside.

Ultimately, the smart play for Boston is to tender Crawford a contract and keep him in the fold for 2026. Reliable pitching depth is too valuable to sacrifice, especially in a rotation filled with injury uncertainty. Crawford’s salary projection is modest, and Breslow could move him in a trade for a bat this offseason. Maybe Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals could be an option?

Romy Gonzalez: It makes too much sense for Boston to bring Gonzalez back on the projected $1.8 million salary for 2026. Gonzalez’s versatility allows him to play all over the infield; he mashes left-handed pitching and is a perfect bench piece for a contending playoff team.

After being claimed off waivers from the White Sox in 2024, Gonzalez earned the trust of Alex Cora, becoming a go-to insurance policy for the Red Sox. Gonzalez has developed a reputation as a quiet, hardworking presence. If Boston’s contention window is truly opening, Gonzalez is exactly the type of depth piece a winning team needs tucked away on its bench.

Connor Wong: With the emergence of Carlos Narváez, Wong has a spot on the roster as a backup catcher.

He had a down year, hitting just .190 with seven RBI and 16 walks and recording a .500 OPS in 63 games. Wong missed time with a broken pinkie and never looked the same the rest of the season.

MLBTradeRumors projects him to earn $1.6 million, which isn’t a massive number for a backup. Boston could look to move him in a deal and find another catcher, similar to the Narváez trade last winter.

Wong isn’t flashy and is the only player remaining on the roster from the Mookie Betts trade. He has some positional versatility and has decent speed for a catcher. Boston is thin on internal catching depth, which means, as of now, Wong is a lock for the Sox in 2026.

Triston Casas: The injured first baseman is projected to earn $1.7 million next season, a raise from the $774,000 in 2025. I don’t think the Sox pay that, considering his knee injury and his status to begin the season healthy being up in the air.

“I don’t think it makes a ton of sense on Oct. 6 to say someone is or isn’t our first baseman,” Breslow said Monday to reporters from Fenway Park. “We’ll see how things play out,” Breslow said. “Unfortunately, Triston has missed a significant amount of time over the past two years; we’ve also seen what he’s capable of doing when he’s healthy.”

Prior to his injury, the power-hitting first baseman struggled out of the gate and then suffered a season-ending knee injury. Boston ended up with a revolving door at first base that consisted of Lowe, Gonzalez, and Abraham Toro.

Casas hit just .182 (18-for-99) in 29 games before rupturing his patella in his knee. This was the second time he suffered a serious injury in a season, missing 98 games in 2024 with torn cartilage in his rib cage on his right side.

It’s a no-brainer to work out a salary for Casas and let him rehab in the minors before he’s truly ready to play at the big league level next season. Boston will likely look for another first base alternative this winter, further complicating Casas’ status with the club.

Keep in mind, Breslow tried to trade Casas last winter in a deal with the Mariners. While he likely holds zero trade value, Breslow could look to get creative in trades this offseason.

The relievers: Winckowski could be designated for assignment to make room for others on the 40-man roster. He missed the majority of last season with a right elbow injury. He’s been an effective reliever in the past for Cora, but others on the depth chart have surpassed him.

It feels more likely that Breslow sends Winckowski packing.

Bernardino was used and abused last season, seemingly pitching every day, or at least it felt that way. He is projected to earn $1.1 million for 2026, and if the Red Sox don’t want to pay the figure, they could ship him out similar to Cam Booser and pick up an 18-year-old lottery ticket and attempt to develop him in their pitching infrastructure. If he were to stay with the Red Sox, Bernardino would be a reliable big league pitcher and has earned the trust of Cora.

Keep in mind, Breslow tried to trade Casas last winter in a deal with the Mariners. While he likely holds zero trade value, Breslow could look to get creative in trades this offseason.