There are many who believe that the only thing that matters in football is the scoreboard.
I'm not one of those people, although it obviously matters for a team at the end of a game.
Not as much for individual units.
If you just looked at the final line on Sunday of Patriots 42, Panthers 13, you'd think New England played great defense. I would disagree with that. This was actually my worst-graded game of the season, as the Patriots ended up with 35 plus plays and 40 minus plays (-5) in 758 total snaps among the players (-3.4%). The other games: Vegas (+1.4%), Miami (+0.4%), and Steelers (+1.4%). Just to make sure I'm not crazy, PFF has Sunday as New England's second-worst game. They have the Raiders game as slighly worse due to a very poor coverage grade. But I put some of the coverage issues on the over-aggressive playcalls for the first game (which they haven't done since), so I didn't blame the players.
It's true, the Patriots are 11th in points allowed through four weeks. But there has to be some context, like facing mostly average (at best) quarterbacks in Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young. That's why I like DVOA, because it takes opponents into account (other stats, like expected points added - where the Patriots are 21st - does not). The Patriots' defense is currently 28th overall, 28th against the pass, and 8th against the run. New England has faced the fourth-easiest schedule on defense (for those of us cautioning against going too crazy about Drake Maye's last three weeks, the Patriots' offense has faced the second-easiest schedule ... he's doing very well, just let him continue to improve).
Back to the Panthers' game. They were already missing a starting receiver, tight end and right guard. During the game, they lost another receiver after the first play, and the back right guard in the second quarter. Still, the Panthers were able to move the ball. Even if you took out the final drive with Andy Dalton, the Panthers drove into Patriots' territory on their first four drives and six of nine overall. And how those drives ended, at least without points, was more about the Panthers than the Patriots.
First drive: Panthers ripped through the Patriots (mostly thanks to Christian Ellis factoring into six of the seven plays, including rubbing Craig Woodson on the TD) at 10.3 yards per play.
Second drive: With third and 10 at the New England 45, the Panthers called a draw for all of 2 yards that failed to get them into field-goal range.
Third drive: At the New England 41, Young misses an open Tet McMillan on 3rd and 11 that would have gotten them into field goal range. They punted again.
Fourth drive: McMillan dropped a pass that would have gotten the Panthers to the NE 20. Even still, they get to the 26 when Young slips after Milton Williams makes a great pass rush move for an 11-yard loss. Patriots play good coverage on third down, and the Pathers don't come close on a 55-yard field goal.
Seventh drive (second half): At the New England 35 on 4th and 3, Young misses an open McMillan against Carlton Davis that would have been close to a touchdown.
Ninth drive: Panthers get to the New England 42 gets flustered and doesn't see a wide-open McMillan.
The point here is that the Panthers, a team lacking talent, made worse thanks to their current injury situation, was good enough to get into Patriots territory repeatedly, but not good enough to do damage (reminded me of the Patriots the previous two seasons). We all know there are better offenses out there, especially the one they'll see on Sunday night in Buffalo. Patriots need to get better in a hurry.
The biggest issues to get fixed:
• Inside linebacker: Robert Spillane has settled down after a rough start (he hasn't missed a tackle the past two games), but the spot next to him has been a disaster. Christian Elliss was by far the worst defender on the field against the Panthers against the run and pass. They've played Jack Gibbens some as part of an apparent competition — and Marte Mapu in passing situations — and that's been a little better. I would go with Gibbens and Mapu, but you'll have to watch if the Bills try to exploit Mapu against the run (he got shoved back once really bad on Sunday). The bottom line is the Patriots have a bunch of special teamers next to Spillane, and they're getting exposed. This has been an issue going back to the start of camp. Might be time to start looking for a trade.
• Getting soft on the edge: Mike Vrabel loves his defense to get up the field and create havoc. That's fine against the pass rush, but it can create issues against the run. Against the Panthers, the Patriots allowed a 12-yard jet sweep on the first play, and seven runs around left and right end went for a combined 50 yards (7.1 yards per carry).
Other totals to the end/edge:
Steelers: 6 for 31 (5.2)
Dolphins: 2 for 25 around right end (12.5)
That is not going to get it done against Josh Allen and James Cook.
• Craig Woodson in coverage: The rookie safety, who allowed two touchdowns against the Panthers (had a good pass breakup as a robber on third down), is 46th out of 67 in PFF's safety coverage grades. He is 60 out of 67 in passer rating allowed (133.8) as opponents have caught 9 of 10 passes against him for 66 yards. Since Kyle Dugger or Dell Pettus isn't an upgrade, the Patriots are just going to have to hope the rookie learns quickly. This feels like it could be exploited by the Bills with tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
Here are the positional ratings against the Panthers:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4.5 out of 5)
Another highest-graded career game for Drake Maye, making it two in the past three games. The negative plays: first third down to Kayshon Boutte (could have been a touchdown if it Maye led him a little bit), the low throw to Boutte to start the second half (that play was a bit messed up as some players didn't know Maye had checked to a pass), the low throw to Stefon Diggs when Maye's feet got wonky, a sack and a half QB hit. Not much in the decision area, which shows his growing comfort. ... Maye had five plus throws — including two to Diggs. His best were two to Hunter Henry. Into a tight window to the goal line, and his sidewinder against pressure on the touchdown. Still not sure how he threw that ball. ... Next step: do this again, including taking care of the ball, twice in a row. Then we can talk.
Running backs (4 out of 5)
TreVeyon Henderson had another holding penalty, and Rhamondre Stevenson had one poor run. Outside of that, this group was really good. ... Henderson had his best game with a nice over-the-shoulder catch, a tough run, a nice move that drew a tripping penalty making it a 15-yard play, his touchdown an 11-yard run. ... Stevenson had an incredible jump cut that avoided a stuffed run and he broke about three tackles to get a solid game out of nothing. ... Nice broken tackle by Antonio Gibson on the 21-yard end around.
Receivers/tight ends (3 out of 5)
Some really good play out of this group, including in the run game, but also some really rough run block reps, as this group combined for six of the nine stuffed runs. ... Diggs obviously had his breakout game and his 33-yarder (nice shoulder fake) and back-shoulder from Maye stood out. It wasn't perfect as he shied away from a linebacker in the run game — this is why he can't be a full-time slot in this offense — and he ran a poor route. ... Austin Hooper had the big screen pass (Demario Douglas was hustling but ended up blocking the tackler into Hooper) and three terrific run blocks, including on two touchdown runs. But he also had three run stuffs. ... Henry sure seems to have the trust of Maye, and that will only grow. Seems like McDaniels is surrounding Maye more with players he trusts, starting with Henry, Diggs, Hooper and Boutte. ... Douglas only played eight snaps, but he had a great double block to spring Henry for his touchdown. ... Hollins had the touchdown and a plus run block, but he also factored into two stuffed runs. Outside of the red zone, he's starting to feel a little Lil'Jordan Humphrey-ish. More of his snaps (a season-low 49% on Sunday) might have to start going to Kyle Williams.
Offensive line (3.5 out of 5)
Certainly a good performance, but between the score, opponent and that McDaniels limited the unit to just nine true dropbacks — as he moved the pocket and used deceptive plays more in this one to exploit the green Carolina edges — hard to say this was overly impressive. We'll see what happens when they're down a couple of scores and need to go more straight dropbacks. But the group is off to a very good start. ... Will Campbell and Morgan Moses had clean pass block sheets. Campbell had three plus blocks, including on a touchdown run. .... Ben Brown was very solid in place of Jared Wilson but he did allow a hurry and two stuffed runs. ... Garrett Bradbury continues to get off to a good start, although he had a couple of hurries in this game. ... Mike Onwenu was OK, but they need him to be the best on the line - especially in the run game - not on the bottom.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2 out of 5)
This group had a lot of issues against the run, especially on the edges, where K'Lavon Chaisson, Harold Landry, Anfernee Jennings and Keion White all struggled. ... Landry had his toughest game, and it probably didn't help the Patriots dropped him into coverage a few times. ... The interior continues to be rock-solid between Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Khyiris Tonga and even role players Cory Durden and Josh Farmer. ... Barmore busted out in this game, which I figured he would do against the poor right guards of Carolina. The Patriots need more Barmore like this.
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
Robert Spillane and Jack Gibbens were rock-solid. ... Marte Mapu was OK, but Christian Elliss was absolutely brutal against the run and pass. The game is too fast for him right now. He needs to sit.
Secondary (1.5 out of 5)
The only players to register plus plays in this group were Craig Woodson (pass breakup, pass tackle, and a stuffed run) and Dell Pettus against the run. But Woodson is slightly more a liability with a missed tackle and two touchdowns allowed to tight ends (Elliss didn't help again, rubbing Woodson). ... Christian Gonzalez was really rusty with two receptions for 32 yards allowed, and Young missed getting him on another one. He'll be fine. ... Carlton Davis is on his way to being picked on with two more penalties, and he's very boom or bust on coverage. ... Until Charles Woods got injured for a bit, it sure looked like he was sharing time in the slot with Marcus Jones, who has been off to a slot start this season.
THREE UP
PR Marcus Jones: This is obvious. He gifted the team 14 points, and he left them at the 41-yard line for another. So you could say he accounted for 17 of the Patriots' 42 points.
QB Drake Maye: The more he plays like this — managing the game and the ball for the most part, and then making a sprinkling of special plays — then you can really start talking about a Year 2 leap. I'd settle for back-to-back strong games right now. A little too much variance for me to this point.
DT Christian Barmore: The stat line didn't show it, but he dominated in this game, so he gets the edge over Stefon Diggs.
THREE DOWN
LB Christian Elliss: This isn't working right now. Time to take a breather and regroup. Give Jack Gibbens a shot.
DE Harold Landry: Didn't look like himself in this game. Needs to be a lot better against the run. It's not all about rushing the passer.
CB Carlton Davis: Very grabby. With Gonzalez back, he can expect to see a lot of action. Is he up for it?