I'm reasonably sure Mike Vrabel is a very smart guy, considering everyone who has played with him or he has played for says as much. I'll take their word for it.
But, man, to this point in his tenure, Vrabel has said some puzzling things. Add in that his team's defensive approaches in these games — which you figure he'd have a heavy hand in — haven't exactly conjured up visions of you-know-who, and I'm just not sure what to make of Vrabel.
Those two factors lead the way in some of the concerning aspects of this team through three games — beyond the obvious like turnovers and penalties — which we'll run through before we get into offensive and defensive analysis, unit ratings, and three up/down from the disappointing loss to the Steelers.
• Vrabel's offensive comments.
"We have to score. You have to score in this league," Vrabel said after the game. "You have to -- again, I'm great with the long drives. We're going to have to continue to use that and gain confidence, but we're going to have to find ways to create explosive plays. It's hard to drive the ball 19 plays. Impressive that we can do that. But it's also a reminder that you have to hit some X plays and you have to continue to score touchdowns when you get down there after 19 plays."
I just don't understand where these comments are coming from because they're kind of obtuse when juxtaposed to what is going on with the defense, his side of the ball.
The Patriots tied for 20th in the league with six offensive touchdowns with the Chiefs and 49ers.
Does he know the Patriots' offense ranks 17th in explosive play rate (10.3%), 19th in explosive pass rate, and 12th in explosive run rate (because of Drake Maye's legs)?
I mean, the offensive numbers aren't great, but they are certainly far from poor just three games into an entirely new scheme with a ton of new players.
Meanwhile, the defense is 19th in points allowed per game, and is 31st when it comes to preventing touchdowns in the red zone (allowed a touchdown 83.3% of the time). As far as explosive plays, the Patriots' defense ranks 24th in explosive play rate allowed (12.3%), and are tied for last with five other teams with 18 explosive pass plays allowed (18)?
Let's also not forget that the Patriots are one of, if not the worst tackling team in the league. The Patriots had another 14 missed tackles against Pittsburgh for a 23.3% missed tackle rate. This was their second-highest single-game missed tackle rate in the NextGenStats database that goes back to 2016.
All of this from a unit with a lot more big-money players, some of whom have been in this scheme before.
Which unit is more concerning at this point and should be drawing the ire of the head coach, the offense (17th in DVOA) or the defense (28th)?
• Approach to start the game against Aaron Rodgers.
First of all, the defense was not ready to go in this game. K'Lavon Chaisson goes offsides on the first play and, on the second, the Patriots were not aligned correctly and gave DK Metcalf the easiest 15 yards you will ever see (Patriots were short a cornerback on that side).
The Steelers also ripped off runs of 9, 11 and 6 yards before the Patriots became competitive with their run defense. In the first quarter, the Steelers rushed 10 times for 48 yards.
Why was it so easy for the Steelers to run the ball? The Patriots played the first two series with two high safeties, which encourages the opponent to run the ball against a lighter box, which Rodgers did with pleasure.
Why on earth would the Patriots play a two-shell defense, which you would do to limit deep passes, against Rodgers and the pop gun Steelers' offense?
So far this season, Rodgers leads the league in throws at or behind the line of scrimmage, by a good margin. He is 31st in passes that go beyond 5 yards, 26th beyond 10, 29th beyond 15 yards, 28th beyond 20 yards, and he's 30th in average intended air yards (5.1).
That's what Vrabel and the defenses came up with? It makes absolutely zero sense to play Rodgers and the Steelers that way, and it contributed to a 14-0 hole. After that, they finally dropped a safety into the box and, guess what, the Steelers couldn't leak a drop.
What took so long??
• Second-level run blocking and TreVeyon Henderson's vision.
Make no mistake about it, the Patriots are not a good running team (26th in DVOA, while the pass offense is 12th). Didn't think we'd be saying that this early.
But what's really strange is how the run game is struggling. The Patriots actually rank 6th in the NFL with an average of 1.99 yards before contact on running plays. That means they are limiting the negative rushes, and holes are there.
After that, it's a struggle bus. They are 32nd in the league with yards after contact (2.21).
Some of that has to do with the backs. Some of it has been subpar work getting to linebackers on the second level, which was a factor in the Rhamondre Stevenson goalline (Mike Onwenu) and Antoinio Gibson (Mack Hollins) on Sunday, which is why Vrabel is saying things like "we also have to do a better job of protecting said person with the ball ... it starts with the person who has it, and then it falls upon the people that are blocking ... yes, the person is responsible for taking care of the football, but again, the other people also have a critical job in ball security."
TreVeyon Henderson is off to a rough start. He is 39th out of 40 running backs with a -1.94 rush yards over expected. His vision has been poor at this point, especially rushing for 2.5 yards on 11 carries against the Steelers, as he's failed to press holes and see cutbacks lanes. Also, on at least three screen passes this season, he's left yards on the field by not following his blockers.
He's young, most Patriots backs don't play much as rookies traditionally, as the NFL regular season speed is a lot different than camp or the preseason. Henderson will get it, he's just off to a slow start.
Here are the positional ratings against the Steelers:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
Drake Maye made some really good plays against the Steelers, including three throws to Hunter Henry, and one each to Kayshon Boutte and Austin Hooper, to go along with his scrambles — and played flawless after halftime until his sack/fumble, but he had the two big mistakes and his accuracy was inconsistent. ... On first and goal at the 2, Maye has to throw the ball to Hooper or in the stands without getting hit, which put himself in harm's way. It was the same play Mac Jones threw a touchdown on for the 49ers (they got man coverage and Kyle Juszczyk was uncovered), against much more pressure imminent pressure.
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On third down, the touchdown was there to Boutte, on a concept the Chiefs run all the time. It did not help that Demario Douglas ran the wrong route and failed to get into the flat to hold the corner's attention. ... On the sack/fumble, Maye either has to throw the seam to Hunter Henry away from the post safety, or he just needs to throw the ball away. ... Maye had two huge misses to Douglas that might have resulted in a couple more explosive plays. Maye's learning. Overall, he continues to make strides.
Running backs (0 out of 5)
Three fumbles and 22 carries for 74 yards (3.36 yards per carry) is not remotely good enough. ... Henderson had another bad pass pro rep, a poor screen read and two poor runs. Right now, he's not the answer for what ails the Patriots' running game.
Receivers (3 out of 5)
Mack Hollins had three disappointing run blocks, and Hunter Henry had a drop and a couple of tough run reps, but other than that it was pretty clean. Henry was really good in this game and needs to see the ball more. Came out pretty beat up from this game, however. He had to help on TJ Watt a lot. ... In addition to the fourth down play, Douglas ran two really poor routes (on the Maye INT and on Henry's 12-yard reception on the final drive. Those continuing route-running issues could cause him to lose time, even to Efton Chism, more than anything.
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
I mean, it was OK overall. Will Campbell had more good reps than bad ones against the very capable Nate Herbig, but the misses were pretty big late in the game. ... Initially thought Morgan Moses struggled against TJ Watt, but I thought Moses more than held his own and two of the pressures allowed came with chips from Henry, and they weren't great. ... Garrett Bradbury had a great block to save a quick game. Came out of nowhere and laid out. This was his roughest game. You could really feel how undersized he was against the big Steelers interior. ... Jared Wilson was solid, had some really good reps. Seems to be improving by the game now. ... Mike Onwenu continues to be confounding. He had a whiff that contributed to a Stevenson fumble, and the illegal downfield penalty that wasn't close, which was basically a 22-yard infraction. He's not playing up to his contract.

DEFENSE
Defensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Not nearly enough pressure in this game, although that has to do with Rodgers' quick release/quick game and not wanting to get hit. I had only a 25% pressure rate, and NGS had them at 16.7% — by far the worst in the league. ... Harold Landry and Khyiris Tonga were terrific in this game. Everyone else was subpar. ... How many more times is K'Lavon Chaisson going to be allowed to be offsides? ... The depth was not good either. Keion White again struggled in his return, and Anfernee Jennings gave up a big run edge.
Linebackers (3 out of 5)
Big comeback game by Robert Spillane, but he did get exposed in man coverage again when he got run around for 15 yards. That's going to keep happening if the coaches put him in that position. ... Christian Ellis whiffed on two big tackles and was finally benched for Jack Gibbens, who was marginally better. ... Marte Mapu wasn't seen again after he got caught faking a blitz on the bird third down pass to Jonnu Smith.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Carlton Davis (coverage) and Kyle Dugger had some standout plays, but outside of that, it was a rough for this group against a not very good passing attack. Davis gave up the touchdown and a huge penalty that shouldn't have been called. ... Marcus Jones had one really nice open-field tackle but had a tough penalty, a missed tackle and the game-winning touchdown when he failed to get any jam. ... Alex Austin got benched after two huge PI penalties. ... Craig Woodson factored into the Kenneth Gainwell and Calvin Austin touchdowns. He continues to be a bit lost. He also had a missed tackle.

THREE UP
LB Robert Spillane: They limited the blitzes and man coverage, which allowed him to be himself a bit more. Need this Spillane.
DE Harold Landry: The guy is just a pain in the rear to block in the run and pass.
DT Khyiris Tonga: Need to find a way to play him more. He is outstanding against the run and is capable of more.
THREE DOWN
CB Alex Austin: Can't have third-down penalties that lead to touchdowns in just one quarter. Can't have it.
LB Christian Ellis: Overran plays and missed tackles.
RB TreVeyon Henderson: Stevenson's the obvious one and should be on the top of the list, but I can't leave off Henderson, who really underwhelmed.
