The Patriots will be vastly improved this season. I have great confidence in that - and it's not just because the Patriots won four games last season, and they have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
Most of it has to do with Mike Vrabel. And Josh McDaniels. And John Streicher. And many good position coaches.
The real question is, how good will they be? Can they get around or over .500 and be in the postseason race until the final weeks of the season? Will they make a Commanders-esque leap from four wins to the AFC Championship Game? I don't really rule anything out.
Here's what gives me confidence in a fruitful Patriots season:
• The coaching, starting with Mike Vrabel.
This could be the most buttoned-up operation since the 2016 season. Sure, the Patriots won again two years later, but things were barely being held together with the quarterback and coach sniping at each other.
Watching all the practices this summer was a pleasure because the attention to detail was off the charts. To do anything big, you need to do the little things well first. One little thing that stood out day after day was something as simple as breaking the huddle. Offensively, the Patriots' offensive linemen race to the ball and are ready to go, often before the defense is set. Like I said, it's little, but it gives the offense more time with the playclock, which also allows McDaniels to impart some words of wisdom to Drake Maye. On defense, the unit huddles near the sideline, and then sprints to their spots. All of it signals that the Patriots know what they need to do, and are ready to go.
Does it matter if you can't block or tackle? No, but mastering the little things allows for the potential for this team to do more.
Vrabel, especially after his season with the Browns and spending so much time with the Patriots' offense in practices, can literally coach every position on the field. I expect he'll have some input with a variety of players during the games, and that ability to coach on the fly will be important as the season progresses.
I thought the positional coaching during the summer was excellent. I'd be hard-pressed to find a player, who made the 53-man roster, that didn't improve in some respect. The poster child is Kayshon Boutte. He went from the roster fringe to an important role among the receivers. The attention to detail during individual/unit periods was outstanding. Before every practice, the coaches would drill the little things - a flipper push off for a receiver, the proper footwork for a back on a running play, leverage for ends in the run game, etc. - and then apply them in that practice, so the players were constantly building on their fundamentals day after day.
These things haven't always gone on around here, especially the previous few years. This is important because if the players can see themselves getting better every day on the field and also the post-practice film review, then they start to put their faith in the coaches. That gets you buy-in, and you can't achieve anything in this league without that. Let's just say that faith in the coaching was severely lacking going back to the 2022 season.
• Josh McDaniels.
You can say whatever you want about his scheme being complicated and a bit tired, but the truth is, he's always found a way to be productive, no matter what he had to work with, especially in New England (even with Matt Cassel, Cam Newton and Mac Jones). The Raiders' own media notes this week pointed out that in McDaniels' two seasons with Vegas, its offense scored on 42.4 percent of the team's offensive possessions, which ranked fifth in the NFL.
Much has been made about whether Maye has to fit the scheme, or the scheme has to fit Maye. Yes, the bones of the offense are essentially the same, but I think you're going to see it dressed up a lot differently — including using Maye's legs to the team's advantage. That's the real sauce in terms of making an offense effective, and I think you'll be surprised by some of what you see, starting on Sunday.
One of McDaniels' best attributes is knowing exactly what he has to work with, and what those players can and can't execute. I would expect that cup to be small for a bit, but it will expand as they go.
And there is no one better at minimizing potential weaknesses, like for example, the Patriots' offensive line with two rookies starting on the left side, and a questionable veteran starting at center. McDaniels is adept at calling a game and changing his pitches. On the first 15 plays, he might have 15 different blocking assignments to keep the pass rushers/defensive linemen on their toes and thinking. Wide zone on one play. Pull a guard on the next. Wham the defensive tackle with a tight end. Draw. Crack toss. Wide zone right, but boot back to the left. Tunnel screen right. Bang playaction to the tight end. RPO with a quick game left. Designed QB run with two pulling linemen. Etcetera. Etcetera.
McDaniels will also change where Stefon Diggs lines up. TreVeyon Henderson could very well line up five times at receiver. Demario Douglas could do some strange motion to shake loose.
It's questionable how much talent McDaniels has to work with, but I have very little worries about him not getting the most out of it that he can.
And I am very confident you will see Drake Maye show great improvement over the course of the season, which is obviously very important for the team's success.
The way I see it, the Patriots are better to start this season than the last at: Quarterback, running back, pass back, X WR, Z WR, Slot WR, LT, LG, RG, RT. They stayed the same at tight end, although they'll be used better, and got worse at center.
On defense, they're better at both edges, both DTs and Khyiris Tonga is really good, MLB, both cornerback spots. The jury is out at both safety spot, and WLB.
Of course, this is on paper. And while the Patriots are better at a place like DT with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, are they going to be good enough to impact games? That's a question at a lot of spots.
• Special teams should be good again, depending on the kicker.
The returners could impact games. I think the coverage units will be very good and turn the ball over. The punter is good. Andy Borregales will scare me until he doesn't.
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So that's the good news. If you just stop there, you can absolutely envision this Patriots team going from four wins to at least 10 or 11 wins.
But it rarely ever goes that way.
What gives me pause about this team:
• Outside of receiver, cornerback and edge, there is very little depth on this team, and injuries to many starters could have a major impact.
There's really nothing the Patriots could do about that. You can't do everything in one offseason, and they are in this position thanks to wretched drafting prior to this year.
Major injuries to guys like Maye, Henderson, Will Campbell, Mike Onwenu, Morgan Moses, Christian Barmore, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane and Christian Gonzalez could easily torpedo the season due to the drop off behind them. Lose one, the Patriots are in trouble. Lose two and the season is in doubt.
• Drake Maye.
I'm just not sure he's sufficiently beyond the dumb turnovers and bad decisions. I think he'll get there eventually — and he might look great against what I think is a porous Raiders defense — but I think it's going to take time and more playing experience. I think Maye is pretty cocky about his ability and how he likes to play, and may be slow to change his approach. I mean, the fumble against the Commanders and taking a hit on a throwaway against the Vikings were just monumentally stupid plays that should not have happened. Why are they still happening? And we're confident he won't do it during the season?
Of course, there's also the injury factor with Maye.
• Center.
I've said it a million times, but I'm scared to death of Garrett Bradbury in pass protection and I think McDaniels is going to have to gameplan for that, at least to start. I think at some point they might turn to Ben Brown because he's good in pass protection, and the Patriots might need the passing offense to produce more.
But, for now, Bradbury gets the nod because he's a veteran, and I think there's a fear factor putting a rookie (Wilson) or new player in this scheme (Brown) in front of Maye.
• The defense.
I'm just not sure how good they are. On paper, they seem like a good unit, but they would need a lot of injury luck and a lot of players playing the best ball of their careers. Maybe both happen and they are a top 10 unit. That would push the Patriots closer to a playoff berth. I just don't like the odds of both happening.
I like the edge players, I like Spillane. Not sure what the Patriots will get out of Barmore since they've taken it so slow. Maybe he unleashes hell, I don't know. Milton Williams and Spillane (he makes plays in the pass game) are not impactful players. The safeties are a complete unknown, so is weakside linebacker. Gonzalez and Carlton Davis have not proven to be durable.
A lot needs to go right with this side of the ball, but that's a long shot.
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I still think this will end up being a successful season, and they'll be in the playoff race until the very end. I have them 9-8 and one game out of the playoffs.
But it will be a process getting there.
vs. Raiders ... Loss.
at Dolphins .... Loss.
vs. Steelers ... Loss.
Yeah, this probably isn't very likely, but I just think the Raiders are a more talented team right now. Geno Smith is pretty good, as we saw last year. I just don't think this defense is quite ready for that, and I think the Raiders offense is a little bit better than the Patriots' unit. Plus, Vrabel has lost his last three season openers. Pete Carroll is 2-1 ... The Raiders and Steelers games were flips from my 11-win prediction after the schedule came out. Aaron Rodgers is a big reason, but that Steelers defense is pretty stacked.
vs. Panthers ... Win. Carolina's defense is not good.
at Bills ... Loss.
at Saints ... Win. Worst team in the league.
at Titans ... Win. Vrabel's revenge game.
vs. Browns ... Win.
vs. Falcons ... Win. This could be a huge swing game. I think the Falcons and Michael Penix will be pretty good. Patriots back up to 5-4 at this point.
at Bucs ... Loss. Too much Baker and the Bucs offense.
vs. Jets ... Win.
at Bengals ... Loss.
vs. Giants ... Win. This is either going to be a tough game with that pass rush, or Brian Daboll is already fired.
vs. Bills ... Loss. Another big swing game. Definitely don't rule out an upset.
at Ravens ... Loss. Baltimore is stacked.
at Jets ... Win. I think NY will be imploding by now.
vs. Dolphins ... Win.
Patriots, after an 0-3 start, finish the season 9-5. That's a normal trajectory for a first-year program and a young quarterback.
The first four games will tell us a lot. If the Patriots hit the ground running better than I think, then a playoff berth is more than in reach.
If they get off to a slow start, it will be on Vrabel to keep things together and to tell them there is much yet to accomplish.
I like where the Patriots are going, and this will be a big step forward to set up better things in 2026.
I just don't think it will be a huge leap — but it will look a lot better.