April 27: With 6:13 to go in the first quarter of Game 4 of Milwaukee’s opening round series against Indiana, Damian Lillard planted left foot to chase a long rebound, crumbled to the ground, and grabbed at his left leg, right above the shoe.
May 12: With 3:08 to go in the fourth quarter of Boston’s second-round series in New York, Jayson Tatum planted his right foot to chase a loose ball, crumbled to the ground in pain, and grabbed at his right leg, right above the shoe.
June 22: With 5:93 to go in the first quarter of Game 7 of the NBA Finals, Tyrese Haliburton planted his right foot on a drive attempt. He crumbled to the floor, pounding the hardwood in realization of his injury. It was the same as the other two.
Torn Achilles tendons.
It is probably the most devastating injury a basketball player can face, with a recovery that generally lasts at least eight to 10 months, and that's on the optimistic side.
But these three injuries in particular have altered the course of NBA history. The timing of each, happening during the final three months of the season, means it will take a minor miracle to see them next year. In the past, teams would adjust their expectations, take care of other pieces of business, and hope to still have a good team there for their returning stars.
That's not how it works anymore.
The viciousness of the second apron era is on full display right now. The three teams who lost stars to Achilles injuries are in three different stages of apron hell, but make no mistake that this CBA has pushed the reactions to these injuries over the top. The new system is behind major moves that are changing the entire Eastern Conference and the NBA.
The Bucks are trying desperately to keep their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo happy. They want him to feel like he has a chance to win by staying in Milwaukee. That pushed the Bucks to make a move for Myles Turner, who never really wanted to leave Indiana. The Pacers might have kept him to load up for another run if Haliburton was healthy, but that injury forced Indiana to rethink who they were going to be this upcoming season.
The Pacers are under the tax right now, so aprons are not a concern. By staying there, they can delay starting the clock on the harsher penalties. Keeping Turner at the deal he took with Milwaukee would have added nearly $25 million to their books, putting them over the first apron and $9 million away from the second. Without Haliburton, who still gets all of his $45.5 million next season, the Pacers thought better of flying that close to the sun and let Turner walk for nothing in return.
Milwaukee made its own financial decision, allowing Brook Lopez to leave and sign with the Clippers. Turner, with his rim protection and floor spacing, represents a younger version of Lopez. Antetokounmpo can be sold on having a more athletic running mate who can do a lot of the same things as his old one, while surrounding him with shooters.
All it would take is the incredibly drastic decision to waive-and-stretch Lillard.
The Lillard injury put Milwaukee in an incredible bind. They were already struggling with how to make things work with him. The Bucks whiffed on their coaching situation and moving Holiday for Lillard blew up in their faces, but paying Lillard to sit out with the injury was a bridge too far for the Bucks. Their only chance at opening up the money to pivot was to stretch Lillard, which now puts $22.5 million of dead money on their books for the next five seasons. That money will just sit there, unable to be mitigated or traded anywhere. They made the decision to do it because Tatum’s injury leaves the East wide open.
They've kept most of their roster intact and added Gary Harris and Vasilije Micić to try to put more shooting on the floor. If it works and they win a championship, then the dead money doesn’t matter much. As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst often says, winning a championship means never having to say you’re sorry.
Without Tatum, the Celtics have pivoted to serious cost-cutting. The Holiday trade for Anfernee Simons and the Kristaps Porzingis salary dump that brought back Georges Niang got Boston under the second apron, but they ate up that space by adding Luka Garza and Josh Minott and drafting Hugo Gonzalez. More moves are certainly coming, but it’s clear the Celtics haven't been gearing up for any sort of meaningful run. This upcoming season is looking more like a long audition for cheaper rotation pieces to see if they fit around Boston’s remaining core.
Is there an overly optimistic path where everything clicks, Tatum, comes back, and the Celtics are shockingly good? Sure. But the more realistic scenario is that Brad Stevens makes up for the trades he didn’t make over the past two seasons with a season-long tinkering job that leaves the Celtics floating in the middle of the pack.
Does all this happen if Tatum was healthy? It’s hard to say. The Celtics would have had to adjust no matter what, meaning Holiday and at least one other Celtic would have been gone, but it’s very possible the Celtics would have kept it as much as they could together for one more run.
Boston’s run is over. Indiana couldn't build on theirs. And the Bucks are hoping to thread a very expensive needle and cash in on everyone else’s misfortune. New York, Cleveland, and Orlando have all made moves to get better, hoping they can take advantage of the lack of a clear conference leader.
These three Achilles injuries changed everything. The future of the NBA, the fortunes of these teams and the people who work in the front offices, all hang on the decisions made in the wake of those injuries in a system that forces teams to react harder than ever.