(1) BOSTON CELTICS vs. (3) NEW YORK KNICKS
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Favorites: Boston -850
SCHEDULE
Mon. 5/5, 7 p.m. - TNT
Wed. 5/7, 7 p.m - TNT
Sat. 5/10, 3:30 p.m. - ABC
Mon. 5/12, 7:30 p.m. - ESPN
* Wed. 5/14, TBD - TNT
* Fri. 5/16, 8 p.m. - ESPN
* Mon, 5/19, 8 p.m. - TNT
Bold-Home
Italics-Road
*If necessary
SEASON SERIES
The Celtics came out strong, led by Jayson Tatum, and never looked back. Tatum scored 15 in the first on 5-7 shooting (4-6 from 3) to lead a 3-point barrage. The teams played even in the second, but an early run kicked off a dominant third quarter that pushed the lead to 30. It was a wrap from there, with the only intrigue being whether the Celtics would break the NBA record for made 3-pointers in a game. But they missed 13 in a row after tying the record to settle at 29.
The Celtics came out strong in all phases, led by 10 from Tatum and eight from Jaylen Brown, to lead by 11 after one. It got as high as 18 thanks to Payton Pritchard’s shooting and some great play from their centers, but Jalen Brunson’s seven free throws kept the Knicks within 13. Fouls continued to help New York cut the lead down to 3, but Boston went on a monster run, fueled by Tatum’s 19 points, to extend the lead to 20. Pritchard got it going again in the fourth, and the Celtics cruised. They have beaten New York by a combined 50 points in their two games this season.
The Celtics, behind 10/5/3 from Tatum in the first quarter, completely outclassed the Knicks to go up 38-19. The Knicks made a run to cut it to 11, but Boston recovered and went into halftime up 21. The lead grew to 27 but the Knicks went on a 32-12 run to cut it to seven going into the fourth. Boston answered by dominating the final quarter, behind 20 combined from Brown and Derrick White.
Karl-Anthony Towns came out hot, attacking switches and dropping 22 points in the first half. The Celtics struggled shooting, but Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis combined for 29 to keep Boston within six at halftime. Porzingis had a monster third quarter, giving Boston a five-point lead going into the fourth. Celtics turnovers cost them the lead, but Tatum’s late 3 forced overtime. Porzingis and Jrue Holiday carried the load and Boston won it in OT.
REGULAR STATS (league rank)
Offensive rating - BOS: 119.5 (3) NYK: 117.3 (5)
Defensive rating - BOS: 110.1 (4) NYK: 113.3 (13)
True Shooting - BOS: 59.1% (8) NYK: 58.9 (T9)
Offensive rebounding rate - BOS: 29.1% (18) NYK: 30.5% (9)
Defensive rebounding rate - BOS: 71.7% (7) NYK: 71% (12)
Turnover rate - BOS: 12.2% (2) NYK: 13.4% (7)
Opponent FT rate - BOS: 19.8% (1) NYK: 22.3% (6)
HOW NEW YORK WINS
The first building block of a Knicks win will be an effective Towns with Brunson. For the Knicks to have a chance, both of these guys are going to have to have a big series.
The Celtics' defense against these guys is creative, though. Holiday can start on Towns and bother him in a one-on-one matchup, so bringing him into a pick-and-roll with Brunson, who will probably draw Brown initially, just plays into Boston’s hands. The Celtics will just switch that and live with the results. Towns isn’t overpowering Brown in the post and Brunson will have a fair amount of trouble driving on Holiday, especially considering Porzingis will start on Josh Hart and then just roam along the back line to protect the rim.
So the Knicks are going to have to find a solution. Their first answer here will be the same first answer everyone has when trying to avoid matchup-based set defenses: get stops, run, and attack cross-matches.
Good luck with that.
A half-court answer is in order. Maybe they try something like starting double-big with Mitchell Robinson to put pressure on Boston’s switches and pile up offensive rebounds. Mitchell hasn’t been very effective so far, but starting him (whether they do it right away or as a mid-series adjustment) could throw off what the Celtics are trying to accomplish.
Boston’s initial defensive matchups are designed to make more sense after switches, but those individual defenders are good enough in that initial alignment that they can live with whatever happens. Robinson forces Boston’s hand, requiring Porzingis’ attention and keeping lob-threat nearby. With that threat in place, Brunson’s drives become more dangerous because the pass has to be respected. If that draws help, or at least some attention, then Towns might find himself more open around the perimeter for 3-pointers.
If they don’t feel comfortable starting Robinson, then that puts the pressure on Hart to take, and make, 3-pointers at a much higher rate than usual. He was essentially 1-3 from deep per game in the regular season, and he was 7-14 in six games against Detroit. But he was 3-5 in one game and 4-9 in the other five.
Yeah, that's 50% overall, but the way Boston plays New York, Hart will have to go 4-9 in every game for the Knicks to win. Does Hart have that kind of trigger? I doubt it. And even if he does, Joe Mazzulla’s philosophy is to dare someone like Hart to play outside himself and become that guy for an entire series. Boston will live with Hart going off once, betting that he won’t do it for more than that.
OG Anunoby stands out as a real wildcard in this game. He was ineffective against Boston in three tries, ending up a -12.3, shooting 29.6% from the field and 13.3% from 3. That's a far cry from the 47.6% shooter he was in he regular season, 37.2% from deep. He seemed prone to the home/road split against Detroit, shooting 12% worse overall and 4.2% worse from 3 in three road games. If Anunoby can live up to his full potential, it would give New York the third scorer they need.
Defensively, their best bet is to offer up a sacrifice to Porzingis and dare him to beat them. He did it once in the regular season, dialing up logo shots on his way to a career shooting night and a season-high in points, but considering the series he just had, can he be trusted to do it four times?
If I was drawing up the Knicks game plan, I’d float that test balloon out there right away. I’d let him have the switch he wants, tell that defender to be physical with him, and see if his yips traveled between rounds. Take the ball out of Tatum and Brown’s hands as much as possible, limit shooters, and beg Porzingis to average 40 a game is probably the best chance they have.
HOW BOSTON WINS
They get to play free and loose against a defense with much more room to attack. The simplest way to win is to do what they’ve been doing: Attack Towns with Tatum, read how New York helps, spray the ball, shoot a bunch of 3-pointers, and pile up the points. Brunson is next in line to be attacked, then Mikal Bridges, and by then the offense should be rolling.
The Knicks will try to bait Boston into a bunch of isolation play. They can try to stay home on shooters, but their defensive DNA is to help, maybe over-help, to protect the rim. They allowed the fifth-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this past regular season, so Boston will have their chances to math their way to big leads.
Defensively, they’ll give Hart all the shots he wants to take … within reason.
“That's kind of the approach that we've had in the past. But you got to be prepared for anything,” Brown said after a recent practice. “I think our defensive versatility has been one of our strong suits. So maybe we start the game that way, maybe we switch it up, but we'll be ready for multiple things, because in the playoffs, we've seen guys get hot. We've seen guys play above their means in a series, or shoot the ball incredibly well. And you don't want to be in a position where you're now responding to that. So you just got to prepare for every scenario that you can and then just come out and play Celtic basketball.”
The key is to still challenge the shots. They can’t just leave him alone and dare him to shoot. That won’t go well. But they can take an extra step to help off him and then recover under control.
This section isn’t really that long because what they're going to do is obvious. The Knicks' biggest issue is that their most important players at one end are liabilities on the other, so Boston will have options offensively and defensively against guys who can’t come off the floor. All Boston has to do is stay disciplined, attack the weak spots that present themselves, and be relentless about it.
Don’t fall into traps and don’t assume a game is over against Brunson and the Knicks. They won’t roll over and die. Boston will have to finish the job every game. And if guys like Sam Hauser and Pritchard can be effective off the bench, then that job will be easier to finish.
PREDICTION
We can all see where this is going. Knicks fans can see where this is going, too. Having listened to Knicks fans and media discussing the series the past few days, I think one truth is universally clear: The Knicks are a good but flawed team and Celtics are the absolute worst matchup for them.
But in the middle of all of this is a dangerous trap for the Celtics. This series is a fait accompli to many people, with the mere formality of Boston and New York taking the floor and the Celtics imposing their will. And while the Knicks might be safe planning vacations for the end of this month, this scenario definitely qualifies for the classic Brad Stevens mantra of praise being as dangerous as criticism.
In short, the Celtics can’t go into the series thinking like the rest of us.
“You have to rebound, you have to take care of the basketball, you have to defend without fouling,” Mazzulla said. “To me, the series is at 0-0, and it comes down to executing simple details over and over again with a high level of physicality and attention to detail, and you just have to be able to do that, and at the same time have no expectations. It’s the playoffs. It’s two teams fighting for something. There’s no one way that a series is supposed to go.”
The Celtics have been very good at all of that, and now they're going to a have to do it under a different circumstance. I don’t have much fear of the Celtics losing this series, but I can squint and see pitfalls along the way. The feeling of superiority I just described is one of them. The sense of living up to a moment in history is another.
This is, after all, Celtics-Knicks in the playoffs. This is a chapter in history, and playoff wins in Madison Square Garden are special. The Celtics will have to stay in the moment all series long to execute.
“Playing on the road in New York, in the Garden, in front of, like, the big stage. Those are the mental things that you need to prepare for,” Brown said. “Being disciplined, not getting caught up in the emotions of the game, kind of just executing the game plan, not getting too excited and things like that because of the energy that's in the room and in the building. So this series will present other challenges, big stage, big moments, big shots, big plays, etc. We got to stay poised.”
Brown said at practice on Friday, so I posed the question of being ready for the moment in MSG to Porzingis.
“You’re making it seem like we’re just going to get caught off guard like a deer, like, ‘Oh my god!’” he joked. “I could ask the same thing. They’re going to have to come here to Boston and experience this. Maybe ask them this question. … it’s going to be a war for sure. Even the videos that they put out with the fans, it’s fun and then it makes the rivalry even more fun as a fan and as a player.”
He’s right. The Knicks are going to have to come to Boston first and guys like Towns, especially, are going to have to deal with the moment in Games 1 and 2. The Celtics have been in the biggest moments in loud buildings. They aren’t bothered by much anymore.
Both Gardens will be rocking, but only one should be cheering for a team dealing with a deficit.
Celtics in five.