Five-game statistical samples are always prone to some wild swings. For instance, Payton Pritchard went from a +24 to a +53 because of the way Game 5 vs. Orlando ended. But there are things to glean from those stats and add proper context.
Here are the most surprising stats from the opening round series against the Magic and what they mean.
- Payton Pritchard +53
Why not start with the one I just gave?
Everyone’s +/- jumped because of the final quarter-and-a-half against Orlando. The Celtics finally strung together an explosive run that reminded everyone who they are. They got stops, they made passes, and they got some nice bounces.
But Pritchard finished the series second in +/- behind Jayson Tatum’s +65 and 14 ahead of Al Horford. Pritchard was fifth on the team in scoring, so he didn’t do it with his points. Instead, he did it with his defense.
Pritchard was targeted by Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero and held his own, allowing a combined 6-22 shooting according to NBA tracking data. The only better defender against Wagner was Horford, and the only one better against Banchero was Jrue Holiday.
“They stopped going to it, because for them, it was having to work extra just to even get down there,” Pritchard told CelticsBlog. “I think I did a good job in that area.”
Pritchard was able to get low on Banchero and hold his ground better than most people expected. Here’s an example of a simple attempted post-up that turned into a fadeaway mid-range jumper.
Banchero is massive compared to Pritchard, but Pritchard isn’t some twig out there. He used his low center of gravity well, kept bigger players from getting to the spots they wanted, and ultimately gave Boston a big defensive boost with Jrue Holiday out for the final three games of the series.
Even when Magic players tried to get Pritchard into the post or near the basket, Pritchard cut off half the attempts within six feet of the rim and they were 1-15 against him from beyond 15 feet. The Magic aren’t the best shooting team in the world but 1-15 is still really good.
- Celtics offensive rating 117.4
This is wild to say, but the Celtics currently have the league’s third-best offensive rating of the playoffs, tied with the OKC Thunder.
How on earth is that possible when the Thunder put up 120 points per game and Boston scored 106.4?
Offensive rating is standardized as points per 100 possessions. The difference between these two teams was how many possessions they got per game. Boston averaged 90.4 possessions while OKC averaged 102.6. The Magic were able to hold Boston to 78 field goal attempts per game, the lowest in the playoffs. The Thunder took 96, the most in the playoffs.
But when you standardize the scoring, the Celtics' offense was just as efficient even though they didn’t get the same opportunities.
First Round Fun Fact
— Sean Grande (@SeanGrandePBP) April 30, 2025
While the narrative was the Celtics struggled to score against Orlando and the Thunder decimated Memphis....
Both Boston and Oklahoma City scored exactly 1.174 points/possession in their first round wins.
There's no doubt the Magic did a great job slowing down Boston’s offense. In the end, it’s about the raw numbers and trying to put more points on the board than the other team. At the same time, the Celtics philosophy of trying to win in different ways was put to the test and they passed.
I know Joe Mazzulla is annoyed by a lot of the questions about 3-pointers because he has sworn up and down for two full seasons that his goal isn’t to shoot a set number of 3-pointers. The team’s goal is to get the best shot possible each time down, which very often ends up being a 3 because of where the help comes from.
But the Celtics never forced 3s. One thing this stat should do is demolish the notion that they simply jack 3-pointers. They never indiscriminately fired up long bombs just to hit a quota. They ran their offense, they relied on something different, and they managed to find efficient ways to score.
“At the end of the day, how are we being guarded? What are the matchups? How can we create an advantage? That's the most important thing,” Mazzulla said after wrapping up the series. “This year more than in the past, we've dealt with a variety of matchups and coverage puzzles, and we have to solve those … our guys did a great job of having an understanding of what's the matchup, what's the coverage, what's the best read versus that coverage.
“Our free throw rate was 30 percent, so it was 10 percent higher in this playoffs than it was in the entire regular season. So you just have to find different ways. You have to be able to go to different things. And our drives per game were up, and our free throw rate was up. That's what this series called for. Every series, every game, calls for different stuff, and I think the best thing this team has done this season is just have an understanding, you have to be able to win in different ways on both sides of the ball.”
The Celtics true shooting percentage, which factors in 3-point shooting and free throws, was just under 60%, third-best in the league. That's partly because they shot the third-most free throws per game in the first round at just under 83%, which is fourth-best.
I wouldn’t have banked on Pritchard’s defense and Boston’s driving and free throw shooting to be major factors in winning a playoff series, but they were against Orlando. The Celtics preach finding different ways to win, and they did that in a big way in the opening round.
