It's draft week.
As I prepared for this final mock draft, I won't be bold enough to tell you who the New York Giants or Las Vegas Raiders desire in rounds 4 through 7. Hell, it's hard enough to figure out who they might like in round two.
Plus, since September, I've been keeping notes on college players and culling information from my contracts across the league and in college ball. I'm not trying to waste all that work (even though many of these conversations about football don't feel that way).
So, I'm following last year's formula. I'll identify a cluster of players in and around the Patriots' current selections and unload what I know and believe from watching the players. The list is culled from a cross-section of those who know the draft, and there can be a wide range of prospect placement on the respective. Some lists will have a player higher or lower; in some cases, it will be by two or three rounds. But that's the draft in a nutshell. Teams will winnow their draft boards to around 150 names or so, and no two boards across the league will be alike.
Away we go.
FIRST ROUND, #4 OVERALL
I strongly believe that the Patriots would like to move back. But if they must stick and pick, and somehow Travis Hunter is there, he's the pick. Eliot Wolf would do cartwheels to turn in the card. But that feels like a pipe dream, leaving a handful of players on the table: Will Campbell, Armand Membou, Abdul Carter, Jalon Walker, and Mason Graham.
We've done so much on Campbell regarding the arm length and the wingspan, I'm not going to regurgitate. He was a damn good player for LSU, starting week one as a true freshman and never coming out of the lineup for three seasons (38 straight starts before declaring for the draft and bypassing his senior year). A two-time team captain and a consensus All-American this past year.
Mike Vrabel was asked if he saw Campbell as a left tackle despite the measurables.
“I think you have to," Vrabel said from the league meetings in Florida. “I don’t understand how you can watch him play in the SEC, which is the best conference in college football, against guys that are going to get drafted at that position. So, I don’t think you have to project it. You could just actually watch and say, ‘There’s the snaps at left tackle.’ Evaluate it and see what you think.”
Pats offensive line coach Doug Marrone said something similar.
“That dude, he’s obviously been productive. I haven’t noticed it’s an issue for him at the level that he’s at right now.”
Many — fans and media — felt like this put Campbell's name in the pen as the selection. I read it and thought, 'They left themselves some wiggle room.' Of course, if you ask me to put money on the choice based on the conversations I've hadwith the team and those around the league, it will still be Campbell.
Membou is the other tackle option at this juncture, but he's been strictly on the right side. He was dominating there for Missouri, equal parts technician and powerhouse. I've written this before, but his tape this past year was considered "exceptional." Like Campbell, he's a terrific athlete for a man this size - both ran sub 5.0 40s - but he has arms that are at least a half-inch longer and a wingspan nearly five inches greater than the LSU standout. Can he make the switch to the left side? It's not impossible, but if the Pats are going to do it, they need to commit to it and live with what surely will be some rocky moments.
I suspect Carter won't be here either, despite the recent attention given to his coachability and the stress reaction in his foot. I know the Pats have concerns about both (hence the top-30 visit with him last week), but this is a hard player to pass over, assuming the medicals check out. He is as explosive as can be coming off the edge, and "he already has a detailed pass-rushing plan," per one assistant coach. "He has to be accounted for." He doesn't fall into the Myles Garrett category, but could Carter be Von Miller? There are plenty of similarities in the way they move.
Walker is a tweener, or as he prefers, a hybrid. He is sometimes a linebacker, occasionally an edge. His production as a pass rusher comes from both spots, and you can envision a scenario in which Vrabel and this defensive staff treat him like a weapon, dancing over centers and guards in certain situations or bringing that bendability from the outside in obvious passing situations.
"Have a plan for him; water the seed and let it grow," one NFL scouting director told me. "He should be a difference maker."
Finally, there's Graham. "Pop in the Ohio State tape and tell me how you don't fall in love," said a defensive coach. "Every time I'd try to watch the other kid (Kenneth Grant), I'd find myself scribbling down notes about Graham."
Doesn't have that freak-show arm length and wingspan that some covet, but he's a cut above everyone else in this class. "You know exactly what you're going to get with (Graham)." High football IQ, which isn't always how interior DL get labeled.
SECOND ROUND, #38 OVERALL
- Aireontae Ersery, Donovan Jackson, Jaylin Noel, Jayden Higgins, and Kyle Williams.
If the Pats don't go tackle in round one, Ersery makes sense. He's 6'6", 330 pounds, with an arm length of 33 1/2 inches (wingspan 81 1/2"). He played left tackle for Minnesota, and he's one strong dude with some pretty good feet for a man that size. Not a consistent finisher, which drives some scouts nuts. "He needs to be meaner," said one.
Jackson is an interesting case study. He played inside for Ohio State but kicked outside when Josh Simmons went down. That tape was roller coastery, but some teams see him as more of a tackle than a guard. I haven't been able to ascertain how the Pats feel, but there is the obvious Vrabel/OSU connection. Jackson has the longer arms (34 1/2") most look for in a tackle, but he's not the same high-level athlete that Campbell and Membou are.
Noel feels like a nice and neat fit in a Josh McDaniels offense. There is a competitiveness at the catch point - and as a blocker - that reminds me of Julian Edelman. Noel uncovers quickly but can also get over the top of a defense. He had some issues with putting the ball on the ground (five fumbles on punt returns over his career), but you don't see that with him as a receiver.
As for Higgins, as I detailed in the last mock draft (when I had the Pats select him), there is a debate league-wide about where the other Iowa State receiver is best. Is he a true 'X,' or is he more of a power slot at 6'4", 214 pounds? His footwork in tight spaces is partly why that's a conversation. Higgins moves really well. If the Pats see him more inside, they'd likely pass.
Williams has gotten a lot of buzz over the last month, which means the media is just catching up on what the league thinks. He can potentially be a YAC monster, and not in a 'run-over guy' way because he's not a big fella (5'11", 190 lbs), but he's a shifty sort, and his speed is a threat wherever he lines up. Usually, we think of the 'X' receiver as the one who stretches a defense. Williams can do that from the slot, and he's not reserved for that spot. There is some versatility in his alignment. As I mentioned in my wide receiver outlook, his hands are inconsistent, but do you look past that because Williams can potentially create explosive plays in a manner that no one else in that room can. The team had him in for a top-30 visit and saw him at the Senior Bowl.
ROUND THREE, PICK #69
- Nic Scourton, Jared Wilson, and Jacob Parrish.
So, Scourton's range is all over the place. His Purdue tape from 2023 has first-round written all over it. This past year at Texas A&M, they asked him to gain significant weight and play more inside, and it wasn't the same. But he was down to 255 lbs at his pro day, and he's not yet 21. Scourton has a spin move that can leave a tackle looking like a complete buffoon. Again, that was on display when he was a Boilermaker. He was still productive at A&M, just not at the same level. One thing that was never in question was his effort, either against the run or pass. "He's a physical SOB," an assistant coach texted me.
The Pats are in the market for a center. They tried to sign Drew Dalman in free agency, and while they did ink Garrett Bradbury, it's not like they're paying him much. If Grey Zabel ends up as a center, Wilson is the second-best in the class (and he's only been playing the position for a couple years). Again, he could end up going in round two, making this moot, but if not, he can do the job in the McDaniels scheme. Terrific athlete/mover (ran a 4.84 40) but isn't apt to maul any DL in the run game.
Parrish is another player I mocked to the Pats last week. He was Kansas State's best corner this past year and has the tools to play nickel, which he did on some third downs.
"I’m willing to play any position on the field," Parrish told the Draft Network. "I just wanna be on the field. Nickel, boundary corner, it doesn’t matter to me. I’m willing to do whatever it takes. I’m comfortable playing nickel. I pick up things quickly. I could totally play the nickel at the next level."
That was displayed at the Senior Bowl when Parrish primarily lined up inside. He had a pre-draft visit with the Pats.
THIRD ROUND, #77 OVERALL
- D.J. Giddens, Princely Umanmielen, Ozzy Trapilo and Ty Robinson.
Obviously, any of the guys mentioned prior would also work here.
Giddens is an explosive back. His 4.43 speed is obvious, but so are his 39 1/2" vertical jump and 10'10" broad jump. He rushed for over 1,200 yards in each of his two seasons in Manhattan and, with a quick cut, romped through the opposition's secondary. He shows some natural ability catching the football - an important asset in McD's offense - but had some drops.
"I’m 100% confident in my hands and my overall abilities as a pass-catching back," said Giddens. "I’ve never doubted my ability to catch the ball. That’s not a problem. I know I can catch the ball.
I feel like I’m a good route-runner as well. I’ve been around good wide receivers and running backs in college. They made me a better route runner. I’m a confident route runner. I need to showcase it a little more. That’s the main thing. I can run routes and catch the ball. I’m excited to display that."
Ole Miss spent a ton of time playing a 4-2-5, with Umanmielen as a standup edge rusher. Guess who plans on playing a lot of 4-2-5? He has that bend you want to see for a player of his size (6'4", 244) and a nifty spin move. He was asked to play some in coverage in his past life (he transferred from the University of Florida), so it's not foreign to him. Was chosen to play in the Senior Bowl two years ago (he was draft-eligible) but decided to play for the Rebels and finished with double-digit sacks.
"It was just my mindset," he said of returning to college. "I can't move on to the next phase of my life feeling unaccomplished in the last phase."
Trapilo has loads of starting experience all along the line (the only place he didn't get game reps was center). He is a very consistent performer and smart, picking up stunts (a significant issue for the Pats last year).
“He’ll play right tackle, he’ll play left tackle, he’ll play guard if you ask him - he’ll do whatever you ask him to do," said BC HC Bill O'Brien at the end of March. "He always puts the team first, and I think that’s some of the things that Mike’s probably looking for. I’m not telling Mike (Vrabel) who to draft, but I don’t think he can go wrong with Ozzy Trapilo.”
Trapilo needs to get stronger, especially at that height. Edges can knock him off balance or push him back.
Robinson is an interesting one. At 6'5", 288, he fits the more one-gapping, attacking-type defensive lineman that Vrabel is looking for (although he has a bully streak in him). He's a damn good athlete and had some snaps at fullback for Nebraska. His range is somewhere between here and the fifth round. When you watch Nebraska play, you don't have to be focusing on Robinson to eventually have him show up in your lap.
Rounds 4 through 7 will come tomorrow.