Obviously in the ideal draft scenario for the Patriots, one of the top two prospects: Edge Abdul Carter (Penn State) or CB/WR Travis Hunter (Colorado) are available at 4th overall.
Nothing new here. To start the draft, Patriots fans will have their fingers crossed and be cursing their Week 18 win against the Bills that leaves them in the passenger’s seat.
Assuming the top two prospects are gone, then what?
1. Trade Back
I expect the Patriots to be much better on the field this year because they’ll be much better off the field. However, they’re still a canyon away from having championship depth. They need more blue-chip players and talent across the roster.
Doesn’t matter if you can dance like Swayze, you need a partner. If they can find a willing hand, they should take it. Don’t expect a huge haul; acquiring more at-bats (prospects) is the logic.
2. LT Will Campbell (LSU)
You’ve already read about his arm length. He measured at 33” at LSU’s pro day, but what’s even more of an aberration is his wingspan - it’s a full 5 inches shorter than the average for an NFL starter. The takeaway: he’s an anomaly at tackle, and NFL teams typically hate drafting outliers this early.
But he’s not a kangaroo. He’s a damn good football player.
The Patriots make this pick if they’re committing to investing in the line of scrimmage. He can be a cornerstone protector for Drake Maye. They’d be betting on character, leadership, toughness, athleticism, and a nasty play style. He’ll start at LT — and if he has to kick inside down the line, so be it.
If he had longer measurements, we wouldn't be having this discussion. His tape is strong. He started every game at LSU, including as a true freshman in the SEC, and faced top competition. He has a résumé most don’t. This is a pick for a need.
3. Pick for Explosiveness / Best Available. RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
Traditionally, I’m against taking RBs this early. You often overpay relative to market value, and the position is largely interchangeable. The exception: when the player is a blue-chip talent and true difference-maker.
Jeanty is that kind of player. He would simplify things for Maye, forcing defenses to respect the run. With Josh McDaniels dialing up motions and screens, what’s felt like a treadmill could start to feel like an escalator.
Absent Hunter, no other weapon in Round 1 would make as much of an impact on the offense in Year 1. This would be to create explosiveness for the offense and the best player available. However, they need to target a tackle on Day 2.
4. Georgia Defenders – DE Mykel Williams / EDGE Jalon Walker
Williams wasn’t fully healthy last year, but he’s a strong starter with top-end traits. If he hits his ceiling, he’s a real difference-maker. The Patriots need pass rush and physicality at the line of scrimmage.
I like Walker, but I have the same concern as with Campbell — it’s not a clean projection. You’re betting on his off-field makeup, as his frame doesn’t fit ideal measurables.
He may have been the best defender in the SEC this year. He’s a leader within the program, he’ll be just 21 next year, and he’s very good when coming downhill. But he’s only started 11 games, and if the logic for selecting him at 4 is that he’s a chess piece, you have to reconcile the fact he’s only 6'1", 243 pounds. My comp: Dont’a Hightower.
I prefer Williams over Walker. This pick would be an effort to build around a dominating defense.
5. DT Mason Graham (Michigan)
My comp: Justin Smith (49ers version). I don’t love him at 4, but he’s a solid player who should be in the league for a long time and make Pro Bowls. I see him as a 3T/4T with good awareness, strong hands, and the ability to jolt linemen off the snap and generate forward momentum. This pick is an investment in the trenches and winning the line of scrimmage in the AFC East.
6. RT Armond Membou (Missouri)
Physically, he reminds me of Carolina Panthers tackle Ikem Ekwonu. Stylistically, different games. Membou is probably a better fit in a zone scheme, where he can use his athleticism on the move. Just like Campbell, I think Membou has some questions on his transition to the pros (size, ideal position, switching to LT).
Here was my write-up:
“Athleticism is clear in his drop and movement. Good bend, good feet. Has some explosion at the point of attack when he takes proper angles and uses leverage. Could be more accurate at the second level, but no issue getting there. Not a mauler in the run game, better in pass pro. Can lean and get lazy, but is strong when he keeps his feet active. Surprised by his Combine measurements, looks more like a guard with the athleticism of a tackle. I’d be wary of drafting him to transition cleanly to LT, but I think he could be a Pro Bowl guard in any scheme. Zone is the best fit to capitalize on his movement skills if he stays at RT.”
Three Guys I Like More Than Most in Round 1
- CB Will Johnson (Michigan): I’d be thrilled if the Patriots took him. He’s not projected to go top 10 but he should be. He reminds me of former Wolverine and Patriot Ty Law: a bigger corner who played a lot of man last year and zone this year, with top-tier football IQ and ball skills.
- TE Colston Loveland (Michigan): I still have TE Tyler Warren (Penn State) slightly ahead, but the gap is smaller than most think. Loveland is a top-15 prospect on my board which, for a TE, is saying something. He’s going to be a good football player.
- EDGE Donovan Ezeirauku (Boston College): Yes, I’m a BC homer, but he’s a baller. He’s not tall, but he has long arms to offset. He’s explosive off the ball, protects his frame, rushes with a plan, defends the run, and shows versatility. BC moved him around their scheme quite a bit. He’s also a vocal leader. He goes top 20.
One Thing I Expect
The Miami Dolphins should draft QB Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) a full round earlier than consensus, likely late Day 2 or early Day 3. He offers more value to them than he would to other teams.
Current QB Tua Tagovailoa is the straw that stirs their drink, but with his concussion history, they need a backup who can operate the offense with efficiency, quick decision-making, and accuracy. That’s Gabriel. Every time I watched him the last few years, I thought: That’s Tua-lite.