Some thoughts on the Patriots as we wait for Mike Vrabel's staff to take shape...
- There is little doubt Mike Vrabel is the right coach for the Patriots at this point in time, and during his time in Tennessee, I was a huge fan of his in-game management and coaching from afar. Also very impressed that he used his year "off" coaching tight ends and offensive line, and seeing how an analytics-heavy organization like the Browns operates.
Vrabel's an excellent coach, and the Patriots will be better off for having him. However, a head coach is only as good as the staff he surrounds himself with. It was part of the reason why Bill Belichick faltered at the end, and the same held true for Vrabel in Tennessee. If he hasn't learned those lessons, his ceiling will be limited here.
In talking this past week with multiple league sources who were familiar with Vrabel's tenure in Tennessee, most thought a weakness of Vrabel's was a blindspot to some coaching styles of different guys. Offensive coordinator and offensive line coach will be two of his most important hires with the Patriots. Vrabel did well with Mike LaFleur (one year) and Arthur Smith (two seasons using LaFleu's playbook), but Todd Downing (2022: 7-10, 28th in points) and Tim Kelly (2023: 6-11, 27th in points) showed Vrabel's limitations. So did offensive line coaches Keith Carter (fired) and Jason Houghtaling (zero previous NFL experience), and special teams coordinator Craig Aukerman.
- Vrabel has shown a preference for the Shanahan/McVay version of the West Coast scheme, possibly because he thinks they are more difficult to defend/simpler to learn than the Josh McDaniels Patriots offense, which is certainly his prerogative. (By the way, points allowed by Vrabel defenses against McDaniels, starting as the DC in Houston: 36, 10, 13, 36, 22 - 23.4 average) but this time around, with a young QB like Drake Maye, continuity has to be right up there with scheme when it comes to weighing who to hire.
If Vrabel hires a young hotshot like LaFleur again (like Rams QB coach Dave Ragone), he's going to become a head coach in short order. Vrabel and Maye will have to start over. With someone like McDaniels, who has an unquestionable resume when it comes to developing different QBs, the chance to leave is not going to happen. The difficulty of the McDaniels scheme is overrated, and mostly had to do with Tom Brady. It certainly was easy enough in 2021 with a rookie QB and a bunch of free agents.
An ideal situation would be McDaniels and someone from Shanahan or McVay to get the best of both worlds. Former McDaniels assistants Mick Lombardi (49ers), Nick Caley (Rams) and Jerry Schuplinski (Rams) have been in those systems.
- Here's also hoping Vrabel lets the offensive coordinator handpick his line coach. We saw what a disaster not doing that was with the 2023 Patriots when Bill O'Brien had an arranged marriage with Adrian Klemm/Billy Yates. O'Brien's Houston offensive line coach, Mike Devlin, was an assistant Jets line coach at the time. He was hired last year by Jim Harbaugh to coach the Chargers' offensive line. That was a predictable unforced error by Belichick.
- The most popular names to join the Patriots from Vrabel World, if they are free agents or can get out of their contracts: Tim Kelly (TEs Giants), Frank Piraino (Giants director of strength and conditioning), Shane Bowen (Giants DC), Terrell Williams (Lions DL/run game coordinator/Patriots DC candidate), John Streicher (Rams game management/Vrabel's Ernie Adams in Tennessee), Tony Dews (Jets RBs), Scott Booker (Bills nickel backs), Ryan Crow (Dolphins OLBs). It would be a surprise if Dean Pees (Ravens) reunited with Vrabel. The two were at odds with the Titans and it prompted Pees to retire temporarily.
- My guess on the known offensive coordinator interviews — Marcus Brady (Chargers pass game) and Thomas Brown (Bears pass game) — is both are minor candidates, with Brown having the best shot and resume. Perhaps both would be considered for positional coaches. Brown has a RB background, Brady with QBs.
- Ryan Cowden has a very good reputation and it will be a strength he's been in multiple personnel systems (Panthers/Titans/Giants). Earned high marks for his evaluations, being a good teammate and working well within the group structure. Sources said he'll have no issues meshing with the likes for Eliot Wolf, Alonzo Highsmith and Patrick Stewart. He won't be plotting to take power. His only priority will be to help the team win games.
- With Vrabel (Browns) and Cowden (Giants) coming from different spots — along with their shared Titans history — it will be interesting to see if the Patriots dip into those teams during free agency. Probably the biggest name and conundrum will be Browns LT Jedrick Wills, the 10th overall pick in 2020 out of Alabama. he only played about 600 snaps the past two seasons due to injuries and has been a bit of a headache (he refused to play injured against the Ravens due to a "business decision.") But there's no doubt he has talent. The Patriots will have plenty of information from Vrabel — and likely former coaches Alex Van Pelt and Scott Peters — on Wills. Given the Patriots' need at LT and Wills' availability, we should have an answer fairly quickly if they think Wills just needs a change of scenery.
Other free agents that have initially caught my eye: Browns — RBs Nick Chubb and D'Onta Foreman, DT Maurice Hurst, LB Devin Bush, WR James Proche; Giants — WR Darius Slayton, LB Isaiah Simmons, CB Adoree' Jackson, Edge Azeez Ojulari, S Jason Pinnock; Titans — WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
- I thought the demonization of team executive Robyn Glaser, who will resign her position with the Patriots after 18 years with the team, by BelichickWorld and the local media has been, excuse my language, fucking bullshit. And she's not the only one that's happened to in the last couple of years.
If she was guilty of anything, it was being loyal to her bosses, namely Jonathan Kraft. I mean, what else was she supposed to do, refuse assignments? Glaser was caught in the crossfire between Belichick and ownership, and she was put in a bad spot by the Krafts with their misguided succession plan and it was unfair to a longtime loyalist. In the big picture, she was a bit player and a false flag for ownership. If your quarrel is with anyone, it's with the Krafts.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Jonathan Kraft at Mike Vrabel's press conference.