The Celtics offense was awful down the stretch against a physical and aggressive OKC Thunder team clearly hungry and motivated to beat the Celtics. Their last made field goal game at the 3:47 mark, with only four Jayson Tatum free throws going on the board for Boston after that. The Celtics were 1-7 with two turnovers over the last five minutes. They scored 12 points in the fourth quarter and 27 in the second half overall.
What was the issue? Was it the 3-pointers? Let's see. Here are all the Celtics 3-pointers from the fourth quarter:
Let's go through them in order.
1. Derrick White takes a 3 we've seen him hit a million times. With :07 on the clock, there is time to drive and kick if he wants to. An upfake and drive is there. He could have gotten a floater out of it, which is a good shot. But chances are it would have been a kick out to Jaylen Brown or Jrue Holiday for a 3-pointer with little time on the clock. So considering the time on the clock and it being a look White has made plenty in the past, I'm fine with this 3-pointer, acknowledging that a floater was also there if he wanted it.
2. Brown tosses Kristaps Porzingis a bit of a grenade. No one cuts because Brown was dribbling a lot and trying to get into the paint. Porzingis has no real options here. Maybe he could have faked and stepped into a closer, less-contested 3? That's being nitpicky. He kind of had to take that shot.
3. Wide open Al Horford. Good shot.
4. White steps into an in-rhythm 3 with Isaiah Hartenstein drifting below the 3-point line. That's an easy shot to take with OKC showing zone. With no one flashing to the free throw line to try to collapse the zone, that's about as clean a look as you'll get against OKC's defense.
5. Weird play, Brown had no choice. He could have tried firing a pass to Porzingis but with two and change left on the shot clock, it's hard to make that play. If there were five seconds on the clock, then it would have been a bad 3.
6. Wide open Horford. And he made it.
7. Drive, kick, swing, 4.6 on the clock. That's good offense.
8. White again. This one is up for debate. I'm going to say it's a good look and White makes these shots all the time. I trust him to take and make those, even from that deep. But there were 16 seconds on the clock and a chance to go from good shot to great shot. He could have driven he ball, maybe get a kick out to Porzingis for an open look, maybe get deeper and Holiday could have sprung free to the corner, or maybe he could have dumped it to Brown along the baseline. He could have worked for something better.
At the same time, the Thunder defense was swarming, and at this stage of the game, good looks were hard to come by. I understand why he shot this and I think he'd have a good argument for it. I think we can all acknowledge this is a good look for White and he generally makes these shots, but considering the time on the clock, it's fair to say a better option might have been there.
This is where the spacing everyone talked about after the game could have been better. Holiday could have flared out to the corner right away to show White a driving lane. Brown could have either cut all the way to the corner or stopped and sealed at the restricted area circle. White's teammates could have given him a better look at some options. Still I can't get past looking at where White caught the ball versus where his defender is.
This is why I lean towards it being a good shot. Considering the Oklahoma City defense in the second half, the definite of getting this look is better than the theoretical of getting all those other things we mentioned. Even with all the stuff I laid out, any of those attempted plays could have also easily resulted in a turnover.
9. Holiday gets a clean look but this, I think, is the one truly bad 3-pointer in this mix. Even if someone says it's Holiday in the corner with a clean look, this configuration screams drive.
He has a drive and dump off to White for a possible layup. Even if the help comes over, Brown will either be open for the 3 or on a cut for, probably, a dunk behind the help. All Holiday needed was one dribble and the Celtics would have gotten something better. Of all the 3s they took in this fourth quarter, this is the only one I'm calling the flat-out bad read and a bad shot.
10. Tatum deep off the pick-and-roll. He made it. The C's needed that one.
11. Desperation time. They needed a miracle at this point.
Eleven 3-pointers in the fourth and only one bad one. So I'm sorry, but the "jacking 3s" argument just doesn't fly with me on this one. The bigger problems were the forced drives to the basket. Here's a look at those.
The Celtics drove and scored 34 points in the paint in the first half. I've said this before, but a lot of times when this happens, it's not an adjustment of offensive style, it's the Celtics just doing what they always do and taking the opportunities that present themselves. The Thunder were taking away 3-pointers in the first half and so the reads for Boston were to go straight to the rim. It worked out very well for them, but there is always a trap laying in wait when one particular thing goes great for a team.
In this instance, it's the hunting of a specific shot. Getting the rim worked so well in the first half that Jaylen Brown went for it again right away in the second. He met resistance at the rim and had Tatum wide open in the corner, but he took the shot instead and missed. He spent time complaining to the official about a foul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got the rebound, brought it up the floor and scored. That should have been a kick out to the corner.
Let's get into clutch time.
This play is always ... ALWAYS ... a pass to the corner.
Brown is gathering with THREE Thunder defenders on him yet he still goes up for the shot. Because he's Jaylen Brown, he still almost make it, but that play is screaming for a pass to Holiday in the corner. If that's open,he shoots it, otherwise, it's a pass to Tatum. If Tatum is open, he shoots it, otherwise, it's a dribble drive to the middle. He'd have three options in the middle. I have diagrammed a kick to Horford, who would undoubtedly be alone in the corner, but he could obviously try to finish if the rim was open, or he'd probably have Brown again, either waiting in the dunker spot or rotating out to the left corner.
Terrible read by Brown. But Boston's defense was pretty good for most of the fourth. They got a stop after that.
Here's another miss at the rim:
This was horrible spacing. Brown drove and no one moved into two spots that could have been outlets for him.
This is Tatum's fault. He's supposed to slide down into the corner. Brown needs to have better awareness, but his teammates need to give him outlets.
Tatum is just determined to get to rim on this one. Okay, fine, but if you're gonna do that, then do it with power. If you're not dunking this, then you'd better be passing this.
The drive option demands Tatum play with more force. On this drive, he's simply trying to out-sprint everyone to rim and glide for the layup. He gets too out of control. I thought he was fouled on this play watching it live, but he wasn't. He just fell. What he should have done was slow down, put a shoulder in Hartenstein's chest, bury him under the basket, play off two feet, and dunk on him.
The problem is that White's defender is helping. I think he would have been stripped if he tried to dunk on Hartenstein. Instead, Tatum has to see three black shirts and understand what's happening. White is wide open. Taking the extra dribble guarantees White would be all alone in the corner with no one within 15 feet of him.
This is a bad read. Mazzulla's offense demands this pass be made. And while you might say the Celtics were cold, what better way to get someone going then a massively wide-open corner 3-pointer? A pass and make in this situation could have gotten White going for a late scoring spurt.
And finally ...
Again, Tatum plays off one foot and is off balance. If he's hell-bent on shooting this, he needs to play off two feet. This play calls for a pro hop and attacking the front of the rim to score. That's the absolute best way to get where he needs to go and maybe even draw a foul. If he's not going to do that, then he needs to pass the ball to White here:
It's a 10-point game with 1:14 left. A corner 3 is the best shot you're going to get to pull off a comeback at this point.
I haven't even touched on the turnovers.
Three of them were offensive fouls. One was a great play by Lu Dort to blow up a saved ball. The other were on ill-advised drives where the Celtics tried to do too much.
The turnovers were killers, for sure. But looking at that fourth quarter, the evidence is clear as day that Boston tried to force something that wasn't there on their drives instead of making the right read and the right play.
The Celtics have to trust their offensive principles, even when the shots aren't falling. I'd rather see them miss 100 of the right shots than try to force things on nights where they're cold. You never know when the next right read, even if it's for a 3-pointer on a cold shooting night, can lead to a made basket. The misses at the rim might as well have been turnovers. If Boston's defense wasn't as good as it was in the fourth, this game would have gotten away from them a lot sooner than the final two-and-a-half minutes.