Warning: What you are about to read has no factual basis and is not rooted in journalism, it's purely from my own mind and came to me in a kind of fever dream. What can I say, these brutal seasons are doing serious damage to my psyche, and liver...
You know those movies, namely by M. Knight Shyamalan, where a twist is revealed at the end and suddenly everything makes sense ? You know, like The Sixth Sense. Love that movie (and the Unbreakable, Split and Glass trilogy) ... but I digress.
If Robert and Jonathan Kraft push the nuclear button on the Jerod Mayo/Eliot Wolf regime next week, then a lot of things that didn't previously make sense would suddenly now.
For the record, I still don't think they will do it. I think they know what should be done, Jonathan may even be pushing for it, but in the end, I'm just not sure Robert has the stomach to fire Mayo, the first black head coach in Patriots history, after one season. As one team source put it, "You could call it the Meek Mill factor." Plus, Robert made the mistake in the press conference of making this decision uber personal (and you wonder where Mayo learned to step in it).
"There have been many moments in my life that other people couldn't understand, but it was the right decision for me," Kraft said at the time. "I did that when I first met Myra. I did that when I first met Dana. I had that same conviction when I hired Bill Belichick ... I've learned to trust my instincts throughout my career, and I trust that Jerod is the right person to lead the Patriots back to championship-level contention and long-term success."
That would be one huge piece of humble pie Kraft would have to swallow. How many 83-year-old men do you know who like to admit when they're wrong?
But if Kraft does move on from Mayo come Monday at the earliest, that late twist could send a lot of us stumbling backward in shock like Bruce Willis.
Basically ... what if this was just one big interim season/bridge year for the Patriots? Here's how I would explain it, and how it makes sense (in my mind) ...
Robert Kraft gave Mayo the succession language in his contract because they did really like him and wanted him as part of the future, but they figured that future was years down the line after Bill Belichick. Belichick was going to get the ship righted after a rocky 2022 season. There had been lulls by the Patriots before (ok relatively ... 2009-2010 ... not a whole lot of thin around here, right Bill?) and Belichick ultimately figured it out. Until Belichick was done, the Krafts would start to take Mayo under their wings and tutor him themselves, which is why Mayo was meeting with the Krafts privately during Belichick's final season. He was getting lessons in How To Run A Team 101, but it was just the freshman curriculum. They had time.
Or so they thought. The Krafts obviously did not anticipate the 2023 4-13 season, which was a debacle from start to finish - and they contributed to the dysfunction. Coaches not talking to other coaches. Belichick icing out Mac Jones, etc. It was a freaking mess, and Belichick had to go.
At that point, the Krafts had a decision to make. This was way earlier than the plan in their heads for Mayo and Wolf to take over after Belichick. They could go back on their word and buy Mayo out, go through an extensive and time-consuming search to find the next great coach and GM. Possibly, they were not prepared to reboot at this time last year. They had done little groundwork preparing for the next steps. They just didn't think it was possible Belichick would bottom out so soon, and they didn't plan on spending the month of January conducting these searches - as we know, there was pressing company business Jonathan had to tend to.
Or they could honor their word to Mayo and move forward, even though it was way, way earlier than expected. They did just that, promoting Mayo and eventually hiring Wolf (after free agency and the draft). Putting multiple neophytes (coordinators too) in charge of the Patriots is something the Krafts would never entertain in any of their other businesses. And in hiring Pete Carroll and Belichick, the Krafts always opted for head coaches with previous experience. None of it remotely made sense.
But the Krafts, for whatever reason, pressed on and did so with the best intentions, with great confidence in Mayo, and Wolf had been knocking on the door of a GM spot for years as the No. 2 for the Packers and Browns previously. They thought this could really work.
But what if they left themselves an out?
Basically, this season would be conducted as if it were an interim season ... instead of six games at the end of a season (they weren't going to do that to Belichick), it was 17 games for Mayo and Wolf to prove themselves with certain parameters. Namely, Wolf would not be allowed to spend all-out this offseason but had to draft a QB (and not rush him). Mayo couldn't overspend on his assistant coaches.
Anyone can spend to improve, that doesn't really prove anything on the coaching or personnel side. Before Mayo and Wolf fully got the keys to the $100 million-plus in cap space car, they needed to prove to the Krafts they could do more with less. Don't have enough talent as coaches? Too bad, find a way. Don't have the ability to overpay to improve the roster? Too bad, do more with less. After all, in their minds (remember, Belichick and the Krafts don't believe Tom Brady made them), Belichick never won with great talent or spending a lot of money. And that yielded Super Bowls and made the Krafts a lot of money for 20-plus years. Why shouldn't they expect the same from the next coach/GM?
In the best-case scenario, Mayo and Wolf would prove themselves throughout the season, the Patriots would be in good (and cost-effective) hands, they would have found their franchise QB, Kraft would look brilliant and secure his legacy, and the Patriots would be on their way to contending again. The spending shackles would be off in 2025 since Mayo and Wolf proved they could make chicken salad out of chicken poop.
In the worst-case scenario, if Mayo and Wolf didn't prove themselves, the Krafts didn't spend much (relatively speaking) on coaching, scouting or personnel. They would have found the next franchise QB. They would have another high draft pick (even better that it's first overall). And the team would have $120 million in cap space to spend. Oh, and the Krafts would have spent the last year talking to people around the league about how best to set the franchise up to compete in the modern NFL since they weren't prepared last year, and wanted to hit the ground running in 2025.
Basically, a year later, the Patriots' job is a better situation - by far the best available for top coaching candidates, like Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson. Drake Maye, the first overall pick, by far the most cap space in the league, and the Krafts understand the landscape better and are willing to build out the support staff. It doesn't get any better than that. Maybe there was even a discussion at some point with Vrabel that they had to honor their word to Mayo, but they wouldn't hesitate to make a change if he didn't prove himself.
Sure, the interim year did some damage to the brand, and the scene was ugly in the final two home games. The Krafts took a beating this season. That's never fun.
But, let's just say, starting Monday, the Krafts blow everything up by firing Mayo and Wolf. They hire Vrabel and his personnel chief of choice (likely Ryan Cowden). Vrabel hires Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator to take Maye's development to another level. Shane Bowen (Giants) was Vrabel's successful defensive coordinator in his final three seasons with the Titans (plus, Vrabel knows defense and actually helps). They have Maye still relatively early in his development so a switch wouldn't impact him much, and $120 million to surround him with better talent. Plus, the first overall pick as trade leverage to rebuild the roster.
Yeah, the 2024 season sucked and how they went about it made little sense. But a year later, if they change regimes, did they lose all that much? With all those assets still intact, they seem better positioned for the future since they landed on Maye ... if they hire the right people.
And then I woke up.
Again, I don't expect Robert Kraft to do the right thing. I don't think he has the stomach for it. And, ultimately, he will blow a golden opportunity to secure the franchise's future, and it will continue to tumble towards irrelevancy.
But it was nice to dream for a moment.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. There has never been a more crucial time in the organization's history. With all the assets at their disposal this offseason, opportunities to remake a franchise don't come around very often. It's imperative Kraft puts his ego aside and does what is right for the franchise. He gave Mayo and Wolf a chance to prove themselves. All they had to do was nudge the team forward in its rebuild. If Mayo coached his ass off with a crap roster, he would be staying with a new GM. If Wolf had a great cost-effective free agency and knocked it out of the park in the draft, he would be staying. Both ultimately failed to do their jobs. There's nothing unfair about it if Kraft rightfully moves on. They had their opportunity and didn't make the most of it. Period. If they though they had more time, that was a foolish assumption. You're either getting better, or you're getting worse. The Patriots got worse this season, with a good quarterback.
2. If you had any doubts about Mike Vrabel's ability to see five steps down the road (I certainly didn't), this week was another masterclass in managing a situation, just like he does in games. I think Vrabel is trying to put pressure on the Krafts, if they are wavering on Mayo. What better way to do that than to threaten to go to the Jets? Not only did Vrabel interview with the Jets in person before the Patriots' season finale (of course the reports say it went very, very well), he granted access this season to a Jets writer - and the article came out on the same day he interviewed in New Jersey. This has to be making the Krafts nervous, especially Jonathan. The specter of Jonathan having to compete against Vrabel for the next 20 years, while Robert sticks him with Mayo, has to have Jonathan crawling up a wall. I think this was all designed by Vrabel to put pressure on the Krafts.
3. Even the writer, Zack Rosenblatt, said on his video that in his opinion, "if the Patriots job opens, I'd be surprised if he was not the Patriots' coach."
4. If Mayo thinks he's back next year, he will play Drake Maye - and more than some would like. Maye has proven to be a gamer and a great competitor. He wants to play and if Mayo pulls the plug very early on him, Maye's going to lose at least some confidence in Mayo. Of course, if I were the Krafts and I knew I was moving on from Mayo, I would order the code red and for Maye to be benched. A new head coach would bring a fresh start and no one's going to care how the finale was handled, including Maye.
5. BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 5-9-2 spread, 11-5 straight up.
Line: Bills -3.5 (up from -2), 36.5 o/u
I don't care. You don't care. The teams don't really care. I think the Patriots secure the No. 1 pick with their continued ability to underwhelm.
Bills 23, Patriots 13.