Juan Soto will not be a free agent for much longer.
Some reports suggest he’ll make a decision as soon as this weekend. Others suggest he will make his announcement after the conclusion of next week’s Winter Meetings. Only one person — well, two counting Scott Boras — knows for sure.
After months of fringe speculation turning into what we believe has become a legitimate pursuit, it’s about time for the teams involved and their front offices to put the pencils down and let their work stand on merit.
Will the Red Sox’s offer — reportedly in the ballpark of $700 million — be good enough to land the biggest free agent prize in franchise history?
Again, only time will tell. But this time, all indications are that we’ll have our answer soon enough. Soto and Boras have played the game well, captivating the baseball world — both executives and fans alike — and it’s about time for them to collect their spoils.
My gut reaction? The Red Sox have a real shot. Hey, if you’re offering somebody $700 million, you’d better have a shot. What began as downplayed (guilty) and scoffed at (guilty) reports of their interest have progressed to legitimate speculation.
Soto may very well wind up back in New York, in Toronto or even Los Angeles. But he also might wind up in Boston. The Sox’s pitch (and checkbook) has brought them this far. It’s been fun, but I think we’re all ready for a conclusion.
Pencils down, John Henry, Tom Werner, Sam Kennedy and Craig Breslow. It’s time for final grades…
Is Soto worth it?
Very few human beings are truly “worthy” of commanding a nine-figure salary. Shohei Ohtani just happens to be one of them, and his large(ly deferred) deal with the Dodgers set the market last offseason.
It’s only natural that the next big free agent in line for a payday is seeking to build on what his predecessors received.
But is Soto really worthy of being baseball’s second $700 million man?
Soto and Ohtani are both elite hitters, that much is irrefutable. But beyond that, what Soto offers pales in comparison to the only player who has drawn comparisons to — and has probably exceeded — Babe Ruth.
Both Soto and Ohtani can hit .300, hit you 40 homers and drive in 100 runs without blinking an eye. But can Soto also take the mound and pitch at an All-Star level while winning you 15 games and striking out 200? No, he can’t.
The age difference is a factor in the discussion, certainly. Ohtani is 30 years old while Soto just turned 26. Soto should have more tread left on the tires, but his value is more one-dimensional. He’s a great hitter, one worthy of a contract well north of $500 million, even $600 million.
Apples to apples, Soto should not be worth more than Ohtani.
But see, that’s the beauty of a free market. Your worth is determined not by what you should be paid, but by what someone is willing to pay you. For all those teams — like the Red Sox — who missed out on Ohtani, signing a player like Soto is the next best thing.
It’s just the cost of doing business. Something we know John Henry loathes, but it’s reality nonetheless…
Questionable move
Lost a bit in the shuffle of Soto-mania is the fact that the Red Sox made their first significant free-agent signing of the offseason this week.
It didn’t come without raising some eyebrows, either.
Aroldis Chapman is coming to town on a reported one-year deal worth $10.75 million. You know, the same Aroldis Chapman whose reputation for a 100-plus mph arm has taken a back seat to his troubles off the field.
Chapman was suspended 30 games by MLB for his use of a firearm and the impact he had on his partner relating to a 2015 domestic incident. The pitcher was accused of shoving and placing his hands on and choking his girlfriend at his home in October of that year.
Police ultimately did not file charges due to inconsistent statements and evidence, but that clearly wasn’t good enough for the league since they suspended him anyway. Chapman publicly accepted the suspension and Rob Manfred at the time said that Chapman during the investigation admitted his actions were “inappropriate.”
I’m not here to tell you whether or not Chapman is truly innocent. In the eyes of the law, Chapman is in the clear — and clearly that’s what ultimately mattered to the Sox.
But I can also say for certain that not being charged with something does not always equate to innocence.
A lot of people have been rubbed the wrong way by this signing. I heard as much from you fine folks during our weekly BSJ Live Red Sox Q&A — and I’m with you. If it were me making the call, I would have looked elsewhere for another option besides Chapman.
From a baseball perspective, however, there’s reason to support a Chapman signing. Despite a less-than-ideal ending to his Yankees career where he bottomed out and ultimately left the team, Chapman has had a couple of nice bounce-back years and has proven that he can still be an effective back-end pitcher.
With Kenley Jansen gone and Liam Hendriks and Justin Slaten seemingly presenting as the only in-house options for closer, adding one of baseball’s most successful closers into the mix certainly makes the situation more tenable.
But again, baseball isn’t the only factor at play here. Character matters, too — at least, it’s supposed to. Yet despite our objections — objections the team had to know many fans and observers would have — the Sox decided to hitch their wagon (and significant resources) to a soon-to-be 37-year-old with a questionable past.
We’ll see how that plays out for them…
Bye bye Bieber
Another top pitcher is off the market, and just like the last one (Blake Snell), he won’t be coming to Boston.
Not for lack of interest, though. Apparently, the Red Sox made an “aggressive” and “serious push” to sign former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, according to MLB Insider Robert Murray of FanSided.
Alas, it was for naught. Bieber decided to return to the Cleveland Guardians on a $14 million deal for next season, one which could be worth as much as $30 million with a player option for 2026.
Bieber wasn’t the top arm on the market, but he was still a darn good one. Not even 30 years old yet, Bieber boasts a career 62-32 record with a 3.22 ERA and 958 strikeouts across seven big league seasons.
He’s a two-time All-Star and was masterful in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, going 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts in just 12 starts to earn baseball’s top pitching honor.
Some teams might have been scared off by his injury-shortened 2024 season that included Tommy John surgery, which could explain the $14 million price tag. For a pitcher of his caliber, and given the fact that he hasn’t turned 30, I’d say $14 million is a steal…
We don’t know the other factors at play here. Bieber may just really like playing in Cleveland and was willing to take a team-friendly deal. But if I’m the Red Sox, I wouldn’t haven blinked at offering something in the neighborhood of $20 million, especially if it was only going to be a one-year, prove-it type deal.
Ultimately, money talks, and I’d be surprised if Bieber would have turned down something in that neighborhood to stay with a team most thought he would leave…
Golden blunder
In perpetuating the “Golden At-Bat” idea, it sure seems like baseball is attempting to fix a problem that doesn’t really exist.
I mean, what are we doing here? Altering the DNA of the game for a silly-sounding rule that fans at large haven’t been clamoring for?
Manfred did what Manfred does best — put his foot in his mouth — when he shared in a recent podcast that the idea had gained steam within the competition committee, comments he had to walk back at an event later in the week.
Now, I’ll say this: part of being a good commissioner of any sport is realizing when things have gone stale and your game might be in need of change. I give him and the powers that be credit for doing that with the extra-innings rule and pitch clock implementations.
Yes, those moves also altered the DNA of the game, but they were made to address prominent issues that included dwindling viewership. Are you telling me that sports fans at large are going to flock to the television because they get to see the star of their team hit one extra time and at any moment?
Yeah, I don’t think so…
This is not really one of baseball’s core issues, far from it in fact. And knowing that you might have to send Romy Gonzalez to the plate instead of Rafael Devers in a key situation is part of the strategizing that makes the game intriguing.
Instead of focusing on golden bats, why not consider making continued tweaks to more pressing matters. To name a few off the top of my head, how about attempting to resurrect the “hot stove” season and incentivize teams to sign players by the Winter Meetings? Or maybe taking a deeper look at the ramifications of the Dodgers giving “IOUs” to anybody with a pulse and the competitive disadvantage that offering deferred money gives?
I don’t have all the answers to those problems, but they’re certainly more worthy of attention than the “Golden At-Bat.” Please…