Just going to cut to the chase on this and not make this complicated with a bunch of words: the Patriots need to start using their man coverage on defense with Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones more to their advantage.
It's not that they don't play a lot of man, they do compared to the rest of the league. The Patriots are 4th at 38.5% man coverage rate (league average is 24.8%). They are 29th in zone coverage rate.
The Patriots just aren't very good in zone coverage, especially compared to last year.
These are the splits in 2024:
You'll notice the 10.0 yards per attempt in zone (107.1 passer rating), and 5.3 in man coverage (and, yes, the 49ers can skew a lot of stats for opposing defenses).
These were the splits in 2023, when the Patriots didn't have all three cornerbacks for much of the season and they had to play more zone:
Last year, the Patriots were a little worse in man. They were, however, a lot better in zone coverage (6.9 YPA, 82.9 rating).
Looking at the specific coverages, it becomes even more apparent.
In man coverage, the Patriots rank 14th in passing rating allowed (88.0).
When the Patriots run zone, they trend strongly toward Cover 2 (either conventional or Tampa 2) and Cover 3. Here's where they rank in the league in those coverages:
Cover 2
Cover 3
Zone can often be more complicated to play because you are relying on the communication and the understanding to be the same among all 7 coverage players. You can remember back to the early days with Stephon Gilmore, who struggled in zone but starred once the Patriots became a more man team. Newcomers Jaylinn Hawkins and Dell Pettus have had some issues that led to several busts against the 49ers, including the George Kittle touchdown and the four pass plays over 40 yards.
Turning Gonzalez and the Jones boys loose could also allow free up players for the Patriots to blitz, which they need to do with their lack of a consistent pass rush.
Getting the speedy LB Sione Takitaki and S/LB Marte Mapu back into the mix (they started practicing today) will up the Patriots' ability to play man coverage against backs and tight ends.
This isn't complicated. Time for the Patriots to get back to their (recent) roots and man up.
A look at the issues on the first drive and on the big pass plays:
Here are the positional ratings against the 49ers:
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2 out of 5)
We all know the issues with the edge of the defense against the run and pass, but I will say it was much better in the second half. ... Keion White was once again the most impactful player on defense, but he blew three edges on the first drive and had a few big run gap issues. He needs to play more disciplined, especially now that he's getting extra attention. ... Joshua Uche also had two blown edges and had two really poor drops in zone coverage (another reason to move away from that). ... Davon Godchaux played a terrific game all around. He has 2 or 3 of these games a year and this was a really good one.
Linebackers (1 out of 5)
It's not his fault because he was put in a tough position having to play MLB in pass coverage due to the Ja'Whaun Bentley injury (Takitaki and Mapu can't get on the field quick enough), but Jahlani Tavai got roasted/targeted by the 49ers as he factored in passes of 48, 23, 38, a passing touchdown and an edge on a 25-yard run. He was put in a tough spot. ... I'm not sure what Raekwon McMillan is adding at this point. His run fits appeared to be really off a few times.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
Julius Peppers can be on my team anytime. The dude is a baller and never, ever stops (his effort on the next-to-last play was a great example to young teammates). Had a great read on a pass breakup over the middle, his interception was another great read and play. He hit hard. He was terrific. ... Pettus messed up the zone coverage on Kittle's touchdown, forcing others to make up for his miscue. ... I don't know what Hawkins was doing on the Samuel bomb. The cornerbacks were expecting help from him. ... The Patriots have some really, really good coverage reps in man coverage when the pass rush isn't allowing jail breaks. The potential is there.
TWO UP
S Jabrill Peppers: Just the heartbeat of this team. A great performance.
NT Davon Godchaux: The big fella brought the wood in this one.
THREE DOWN
S Dell Pettus: Only played 7 snaps but had a huge miscue on the Kittle TD.
LB Jahlani Tavai: Playing the middle against a team with that much speed is not ideal.
LB Raekwon McMillan: He used to be fast a weapon as a blitzer. What has happened?