It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It was a tale of two halves (even though it really wasn’t…).
Whatever glass half-empty (or half-full) cliche you prefer, it’s probably applicable in some way, shape or form to the Red Sox and another season of postseason-less baseball.
Remember the R.L. Stine “Goosebumps” books with the “choose your own adventure” endings? Well, that’s exactly how we’re going to play it when it comes to evaluating the 2024 season for the Sox.
Because there were some positives, and there were some negatives. So, it’s time to choose your own narrative, Red Sox fans…
A(nother) wasted year
“Yamamoto sets, here’s the pitch. A fly ball to left field. Teoscar Hernandez is under it. He has it! For the fifth time in 20 years, the Red Sox are World Series champions! Can you believe it?”
Of course, none of that happened.
Instead, the Boston Red Sox and their middling $190 million payroll won’t be playing October baseball for the fifth time in six years since fielding (and paying for) the greatest team in franchise history.
No, instead of giving legendary team broadcaster Joe Castiglione the chance to ride off into the sunset with the high of yet another World Series championship, the Sox just couldn’t find a way to be better than the likes of the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers.
Imagine saying that 20 years ago when boy wonder Theo Epstein first came to town? “Well, what can you do? Sometimes, you just run into baseball powerhouses like… the freaking Royals and Tigers.”
I can’t imagine that, can you? And if that had turned out that way, well, Theo probably would’ve needed to sneak out the back door in his gorilla suit for a different reason, and much sooner…
It is nothing short of laughable in a day and age when more postseason spots are up for grabs than ever before — there are not one, not two, but three wild card spots available! — that the Red Sox continue to miss the playoffs year after year after year.
It’s a disgrace.
Making matters worse is the fact that these Red Sox didn’t miss the playoffs by 10, 15, 20 or 30 games. Nope, they missed out by only a handful of games.
As most will, I acknowledge that spending the most money in baseball doesn’t guarantee you’ll make the playoffs. But let’s take a look at the teams with the top 10 payrolls in baseball…
The Mets (underperforming, yes, but in the playoffs at the moment) lead the way near $318 million and the Yankees (AL East champs) are second at nearly $309 mill. The Astros (AL West champs) and Phillies (NL East champs) are third and fourth, and the Dodgers (NL West champs) round out the top five.
Then you’ve got the Braves (they’ll have a shot on the final day of the season), Cubs (eliminated), Rangers (eliminated — but defending World Series champs), Blue Jays (eliminated) and Giants (eliminated).
Four of the top five teams are in the playoffs, and five of the top six are guaranteed to be in. I feel pretty good in saying that one of those top six teams (the Dodgers are my bet, albeit not going out on much of a ledge there…) will most likely win the World Series.
It’s true that there are teams below that — even a handful in the bottom 10 — who will be playing playoff baseball, too. But for many of those teams, spending more money is not as much of a realistic option. That isn’t the case for a $4.5 billion Red Sox franchise (and a Fenway Sports Group parent company valued around $7 billion).
The fact is, the Red Sox were more than able to invest more in this year’s team… they just weren’t willing. John Henry, Tom Werner, Sam Kennedy and the rest of the FSG braintrust have their sights set on other, newer ventures. The Sox are firmly on the back burner for now, getting just enough heat to keep them from going cold, but not nearly enough for them to boil over…
They’ll try to sell you on it being “smart” business. It is not. Not for the Red Sox, anyway.
I’m usually hesitant to say that one player would make the difference for any team. But you’re telling me that signing the aforementioned Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who dealt, with injuries but still pitched very well in 17 starts) or Hernandez (30+ plus homers, 90+RBIs), both of whom could have been had at the right price, wouldn’t have put this team over the top? You’re telling me that keeping Chris Sale (they’re paying his salary this year, anyway) wouldn’t have put you over the threshold? Obviously, yes, they would have.
It wouldn’t have taken much, either last offseason or even being more aggressive at the trade deadline, to get this team to the postseason. In a three-wild-card world, the Red Sox should be in the playoffs nearly every year.
I’ll wrap up by quoting something I unearthed that I wrote about the Red Sox for another outlet over a decade ago…
“Bottom line: until this team shows that it's serious about righting the ship, you shouldn't give them your money. Whether it's buying tickets or merchandise, or even watching a game on television, this baseball team isn't worth a minute of your time. Right now, it's all about the money. As long as fans keep piling into the ballpark, buying commemorative bricks and singing "Sweet Caroline" in the eighth, everything is still fine in their eyes. Take away the money, and things will change.”
It was true in 2012, and it’s still true in 2024. Yes, they won a couple of World Series in that span, but they’ve spent more time out of the playoffs than in it on the whole. And back in 2013, the Sox’s payroll of $175 million ranked third in baseball. Today, it would have ranked, ironically, 12th — one spot below Boston’s current payroll ranking.
That right there should hammer home the point. Yes, the Sox are still spending money, but the commitment to winning isn’t at a commensurate level.
Yes, John. Baseball players are expensive. They’re more expensive today than they were 10 years ago, and they’ll be more expensive in 10 years than they are today. The cost of doing business has gone up dramatically, and Henry isn’t willing to play ball right now.
And if you’re not going to play ball like you once did, you’re going to get called to the mat on it.
Until that changes, this baseball team still isn't worth a minute of your time…
Better than expected
Alex Cora was handed a pair of twos at the start of the season. He played them like pocket aces.
Coming off back-to-back 78-win seasons and a “full throttle” offseason that was a complete dud, not much was expected from this Red Sox roster.
They embraced the challenge, and they nearly played themselves onto baseball’s grandest stage.
A pitching rotation that was expected to be among the bottom in baseball surged to the front of the pack for much of the first half of the year, thanks in large part due to the innovation of Boston’s biggest offseason addition — Andrew Bailey.
A club that most thought had only one All-Star caliber player produced three. Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck emerged not just as bonafide major leaguers, but among the best in the game at what they do.
A pair of promising rookies in the outfield, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, wowed with their versatility, their defensive “wow” factor and continual progress at the plate. Abreu’s season was even good enough to garner him the fourth-best odds for AL Rookie of the Year.
At one point, the Sox had built up enough momentum to put themselves within striking distance of the division leaders in the AL East. They were trending upward and held a playoff spot heading into the All-Star break.
"I think there were a number of times during the season where we were playing really good baseball,” Sox baseball ops boss Craig Breslow told WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show this week. “We were pitching well. We were scoring a bunch of runs. Sure, the defense at times let us down. But we were playing with teams the baseball world viewed as World Series contenders.”
Breslow added that, over the course of the 159 out of 162 games the Sox remained in contention, "we also saw the core of a really exciting team.”
It was after the All-Star break that some on the Sox’s young, exciting core started to hit a wall. For Houck and Kutter Crawford, that looked like a regression to the mean in the form of crossing their innings limits. But instead of letting it best them, both Houck and Crawford went back to the lab and made the necessary adjustments to be effective again on the mound.
And down the stretch, some potential diamonds in the rough emerged. Richard Fitts came on strong. Luis Guerrero came out hot and carved out a potential role in the bullpen next season, as has Zach Penrod. Nick Sogard also emerged late in the season as a steady utility hand in the infield.
All the while, a trio of up-and-comers — Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony (Baseball America’s newest No. 1 prospect) and Kyle Teel — continued their meteoric rise through the ranks of the Sox’s farm system, and a new face emerged to join them: Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year Kristian Campbell.
It was a season that featured feel-good stories, like a journeyman minor league pitcher Cam Booser finally making his way to the majors — after walking away from the game entirely — and a 29-year-old Jamie Westbrook finally getting his shot — and his first big league hit — after toiling away in the minors for 10 seasons.
Not to mention, a veteran catcher in Danny Jansen who became the first baseball player in history to play for two teams in one game. Oh, and a swan song for James Paxton and Boston’s own Rich Hill…
While the season didn’t end with the Sox promising core getting a chance to show what they’re made of in October, they left us with plenty of optimism about what’s to come.
"We have seen the ability to be competitive in the AL East with a young group that's really exciting, really dynamic," Breslow told reporters this week in Toronto.
What’s even more exciting? The Sox might finally, at long last, get some bonafide help in free agency — help that Breslow insists ownership will be willing to pay for this team.
“I don’t have any question about ownership’s willingness to do what we need to do to put the Red Sox back where we belong,’ Breslow told WEEI, adding that it’s ultimately “up to me.”
How will he do it? For Breslow, it’s always been about bulking up the pitching, and he claims that will be his priority along with balancing out a lefty-heavy batting order with some right-handed talent.
“We can never have enough quality starting pitching so I think looking at starting pitching is the other area of focus for us,” he said on WEEI.
A free agent starter here, a power-hitting righty there, the returns of former All-Star arms Lucas Giolito, Michael Fulmer and Liam Hendriks, a more seasoned Brayan Bello, a finally healthy Trevor Story and the potential promotions of the “Big 3” … things may really be looking up for these Red Sox yet.
2024 wasn’t their year, but there’s plenty of reason to believe the organization might finally be ready to turn a corner in 2025…
Gethin Coolbaugh is a columnist for Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on X/Twitter.