Celtics fans have been basking in the post-championship glow for nearly three full months. The return of almost the entire team, the perceived motivation boost Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown got courtesy of Team USA, and the surprise signing of Lonnie Walker IV have all given Celtics fans reasons to be supremely confident about the team moving forward.
And why shouldn’t you? This team just won a championship, a new fire seems to have been lit under the two best players, and a proven NBA bench player might be adding to the depth. When it comes to defending a title (don’t tell Joe I said that), this Celtics team seems to be in as good a position as any team in recent history.
However, growth and success are rarely linear. The Dow was at about 11,000 25 years ago and closed above 41,000 today, but there have been some rough seas on the way to record highs this year. The Celtics are booming, but is there a bubble that could pop at some point this upcoming season?
Reality tells us that we should brace ourselves for some regression somewhere on this team. That's not to say it will be so bad that it derails the Celtics' quest for another title, but it could make things a bit harder than we all expect.
Take Derrick White, for example. He has become everyone’s favorite player because his attitude is great, he hustles at all times, and he has had a knack for killer plays. He had huge plays in every series, like dunking all over the Miami Heat, the series-sealing 3-pointer in Indiana, and a huge chase-down block in the Finals. He easily had his best season in the NBA, with a win share (estimated number of wins contributed by a player) of 8.5. Only Tatum (10.4) was better.
As much as I don’t expect a step back, it’s always difficult to expect a player at this point of his career to follow his best year in the NBA with another one. He shot nearly 40% from 3, which is incredible for a guy who came to Boston with a reputation as a non-shooter. At 30 years old, White is still in his prime, but he’s on the tail end of it. He’s not in the “slowing down” portion of his career, but a three at the start of one’s age officially starts the back nine.
That said, before having his best season in the NBA, White had his best season in the NBA in the 2022-23 Boston run. So he’s already accomplished what we’re looking for once. It could just be that playing next to this set of teammates has unlocked the best White has to offer.
Most of the evidence points to White’s extreme confidence boost in Boston, aided by the space Tatum and Brown create for everyone, allowing him to take full advantage and become an All-Star-level player. And to be clear, I don’t see him slowing down this season either, because none of what he did was base on much other than making the right reads and the right plays.
Still, it’s hard to maintain the highest highs. And I do think White is dependent on everything else working well to be at his best. If he suffers any kind of regression, it might be because there's some elsewhere and it’s giving him less room to work.
That could come from shooting declines in two key, knock-down snipers Jrue Holiday and Al Horford.
Holiday shot 43% from deep this past season, a career-best. It’s his fourth straight season shooting better than 38% from deep, but it follows five seasons in a row where he shot no better than 35.6%. The league average last season was 36.6%, so any kind of dip to those previous levels turns Holiday from a dangerous shooter to someone a defender can take an extra step away from in help position.
That would be especially damaging because Holiday shot his lowest percentage on 2-pointers (52.6%) in four seasons and saw his free throw attempts drop from 2.6 to just one per game. It’s not the most egregious drop, which is why it’s not really seen as a big deal, but the overall picture is clear: With the drop in field goal attempts because of the talent-laden team he’s on, a higher percentage of Holiday’s points came on 3-pointers than ever before. Last season, his total points were split almost evenly between 3s and 2s plus free throws. The year before, a third of his offense came from 3-pointers.
Space is critical to Joe Mazzulla’s offense. Losing any of it would make things more difficult. Especially if Horford starts to lose his touch.
With Kristaps Porzingis out presumably until late December, Horford comes into the season as the only stretch big on the roster. Unless Xavier Tillman finds his shot or Luke Kornet starts dipping behind the line like he did as a rookie, it’s up to Horford to spread the floor in matchups against the top challengers in the East. New York, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee all have drop-coverage bigs who need to be pulled from the paint. If Horford can’t do that effectively anymore, then everyone else in the starting five will have a much tougher time.
Horford’s volume from 3 dropped some last year as he moved to the bench. That's not really a big deal because his attempt rate was still over 60%, but his percentage dropped from 44.6% to 41.9% last season. That's still a very good percentage and high enough for people to overlook a nearly 3% drop year over year.
Horford is now 38 years old and coming off the shortest non-COVID offseason of his career. Holiday, for that matter, is 34, and he also played in the Olympics. These are two critical shooters for Boston’s success. If there is any regression from them, it could trickle to someone like White and drag his numbers down, while also forcing Tatum and Brown into different shot selection.
There are a million reasons to be positive and upbeat about the Celtics chances of repeating. They are the best team in the NBA and probably will be again. But regression isn’t out of the question. If it shows up this season, the Celtics will face a big challenge trying to rediscover the spacing that made their offense so great last season.