The arrival of Lonnie Walker IV on an Exhibit 10 deal was a bit of a shock last week. All indications were that the 15th spot was going to be left open, but that was always with the caveat of unless a must-sign player came along.
Walker is on the fringes of that category in general, but giving him a shot on a fully non-guaranteed deal like this made it a no-brainer. The worst-case scenario is that he’s cut in camp and walks without financial repercussions.
The best-case scenario is that he proves himself and snags a spot in the actual rotation. So how would he do that? What would that look like? Let’s dive into the numbers.
As always with these kinds of exercises, we start with the total minutes and whittle down. There are 240 minutes to be played by the five players in a regulation NBA game. I think the distribution of those minutes could evolve over the season, with the regulars getting shorter minutes at the beginning and eventually ramping up.
There's also the non-Kristaps Porzingis element to start the season which will obviously change the minutes distribution over time. So before we even start splitting them up, we know there will be phases to the season. Someone getting minutes in November will end up sitting a lot more in March.
For now, I’m going to focus on the start of the season. This is going to be where the decisions on who sits and who plays later get made. This is the proving ground, so if Walker advances past the preseason, this will be his chance to force his way into the mix.
The starting lineup on opening night will very likely be Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford. Last season they averaged, in order, 32.6, 32.8, 33.5, 35.7, and 26.8 minutes per game. I’m going to do two things with these numbers: round them all down, and then take two off of everyone. That will satisfy, I think, the sort of minutes restrictions these guys should be on to start the season.
So now we’re looking at 24 minutes for Horford, 30 minutes each for White and Holiday, 31 for Brown, and 33 for Tatum. That brings us to 148 minutes. There are 92 minutes left to distribute, but 24 of those go to some combination of the backup centers. Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman, and Neemias Queta are going to compete for those minutes and who gets how many will depend on the matchups. So for now, I’m simply going to slot all three in there with the understanding that one or two of those guys will probably DNP-CD based on which team they're playing. This isn’t about parsing out those specific minutes.
This leaves 68 minutes to distribute. Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser each averaged 22 minutes per game last season. For now, let’s roll with those numbers so we can get an eight or nine-man rotation (depending on the bigs). There is room for someone else to get minutes.
As of right now, the rotation is:
Starters: White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum, Horford
Bench: (backup big du jour), Pritchard, Hauser
Remaining options: Walker, Jaden Springer, Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Anton Watson (two-way), JD Davison (two-way)
Let’s peel off some of the guys I don’t expect to win minutes. I think Davison and Walsh are out right now. I’m not sold on Davison and I think Walsh is too young and chaotic for this team at the moment. I also think Scheierman is probably at least a year away from earning some time and will be better suited for G League minutes.
That leaves Walker, Springer, and Watson. I liked Watson’s feel for the game in summer league, so I’m keeping him on the fringes. This is more of a “he’s not ready to take minutes from someone more established, but we’re okay throwing him in if there's an injury” type of role in my opinion. Obviously, that can change in either direction after camp, but that feels like a comfortable place for him right now.
That brings us to Walker and Springer. Who gets the most minutes depends on who has fixed their biggest weakness this summer. Springer is an NBA-level defender who needs to become a better shooter. Walker is an NBA-level scorer who needs to become a better defender. If either can stand out as markedly improved in those areas, then that player might just win the spot. However, if neither has fixed enough of the weakness, then we’re looking at a possible matchup/platoon situation.
In cases where Boston is facing a tougher offense, Springer could get some run. In cases where the defense is more difficult, Walker’s shot-making ability could be more useful. And then in end-of-game situations, we could see both each subbing in for the other.
Of course, there are other elements to this, too. Walker has a tendency to go for his own offense, which isn't what the Celtics need. He’ll need to show he can work within the Boston offense and be happy playing a more spot-up role in lineups next to two of Boston’s best perimeter scorers and playmakers.
Springer might be too afraid to shoot at time, which can’t happen because it lets defenses sag into driving lanes. He has to be more willing to shoot to make his minutes work.
Unless the Celtics can find Rick Sanchez and have him meld Walker and Springer into one player, they could be heading towards a choice between the two. One has an opportunity to outplay the other, and I’d bet on the more established Walker come out on top if it came to that, but this is where the minutes exist on this roster right now.
Later in the season, as the main rotation guys see their minutes increase, this particular role will diminish. The 24 minutes will shrink to 10 or 11 if the starters get back to their averages later in the season. And if Pritchard or Hauser stand out, those minutes can go away entirely.
But they are there to start the season, and if Walker or Springer can grab hold of those, then they might force Joe Mazzulla’s hand as he makes lineup decisions after All-Star break.