This is it, people — our last weekend without real NFL football. Beginning next week, there will be games galore. The Patriots play every week until December, when they finally get their bye. The oddsmakers tell you that the number one pick is more in play for New England than making the playoffs, the longest of long shots. But hey, that's why they play the games on the field, not on paper (even if I agree that the postseason is a pipe dream).
Anyway, to lead off the weekend notes, I thought I'd give you outsiders' views on what they saw from the Pats this summer.
Personnel exec on the overall state of the roster:
"I saw what you wrote. You couldn't be more right. This roster is lean, and so much of what happens with them in the future will depend on the development of Drake (Maye) and the rest of the young players, especially (Caeden) Wallace and (Ja'Lynn) Polk. They've got to be plus-starters to kick the rebuild into gear."
Philadelphia exec in attendance for both the joint practice and preseason game:
"Their defense got after us pretty good. Judon isn't there anymore, and who knows what happens with Barmore, but that group will still be a bitch to play against. The two safeties (Kyle Dugger & Jabril Peppers) come at you from different levels, making it more difficult on the QB. I'm impressed with how DC (Demarcus) Covington has 'em playing. Are they good enough to keep 'em in every game? Might be asking too much, but that's a cohesive group."
On the offensive line:
"When you still don't know who your best-left tackle is, who your best right tackle is, and you're this close to the regular season, that's a recipe for some bad shit. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not as if they've been banged up all summer (they haven't). What are they waiting for? The only thing I can think of is that they wanted the kids (Caedan Wallace and Layden Robinson) to take jobs, but they just haven't gotten there yet (editor's note: Robinson may have). I'd figure that out before I considered putting the rookie in there (Maye)."
From a scout who was at the Commanders' game:
"There were a lot of growing pains on that sideline and certainly on the field. They looked exactly like what they are: a new head coach with a new coaching staff trying to figure it out on the fly. It's not surprising. No manual gives you all the answers. But they better clean that up quickly (he cited late substitutions and the overall lack of discipline leading to several pre-snap penalties and on-field mistakes)."
From another scout at that game on the play of Maye:
"Drake is talented. No one can deny that. But as the game wore on, he was less decisive, less sure of where to go with the ball. He needs to rep more, but there's the catch: the next time he does, it will be against far more complex defenses and far less forgiving. I'm sure they'll try to get him some game reps in mop-up duty, and the moment the other guy (Brissett) falters, they'll hand him the key. Be prepared, though. It's going to be rocky. There's only one C.J. Stroud."
DO BETTER, NFL
After a preseason of seeing the new kickoff rule in effect, I've concluded that the play isn't nearly what it should be. Call it a half-measure, and I'm flagging the league 10 yards for half-assing it.
Yes, kick returns are up from 22% last season to 70% this summer. But the average starting field position is just past the 28-yard line (28.3 to be exact). If a team chooses to kick the ball out of the end zone, the ball gets placed on the 30. So, I expect teams to see that data and respond accordingly, which means recording the touchback and dealing with the slight change. For what it's worth, the number of returns has decreased weekly.
What should have been done — and was once again proposed last week — was adopting the spring league rules and making the 35-yard line the default. The difference of nearly 7 yards in average field position is substantial. But the owners stubbornly declined.
Speaking of stubbornness, Bill Belichick was asked about what he expects from the play during one of his 600 media appearances.
"I think what we saw in the preseason was most teams kicking the ball so it would be returned so they could evaluate their coverage," Belichick said. "Once you get into the regular season, just touchback 'em. I mean, you put the ball on the 30 instead of the 25, big deal, I'd rather do that than kick it to one of these guys who's got a chance to change field position on you in a hurry. I think we saw more returns in the preseason, percentage-wise than we're going to see in the regular season."
Coaches are generally conservative. When you weigh the risk versus reward, as Belichick did, I suspect we'll be able to schedule regular bathroom runs or raidings of the fridge during that time.
DO WELL, DESHAUN, OR ELSE
It took a while for talking heads to put Deshaun Watson, football player, in the crosshairs, but it's finally happening. One after another have wondered if the team wouldn't be better off with Jameis Winston or Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The latest is former NFL QB Chase Daniel.
"Forget about the $230 million [contract]….is there a world that Jameis Winston, DTR, & Tyler Huntley are all better suited than Deshaun Watson to run [head coach Kevin] Stefanski's offense for the Browns?" Daniel asked.
That might be over the top (Huntley got cut), but you can see where he's coming from. The Browns gave Watson an unprecedented contract in 2022 ($230 million fully guaranteed, and after a recent restructure, cap hits of $73 million each of the next two years, highest in NFL history) and have gotten jack squat in return. He's played in 12 games - 12! - over his first two seasons in Cleveland, the first of which began with a suspension for his off-field idiocy, the second cut short by an injury to his throwing shoulder. When Watson played, he hasn't been worth the money or the trouble.
Cleveland revamped its offensive coaching staff this off-season, firing coordinator Alex Van Pelt and several others, even though head coach Kevin Stefanski is the play-caller. In AVP's place comes Ken Dorsey, who was jettisoned mid-season by the Bills. Dorsey is known for drawing up a solid run game out of shotgun, where Watson is more comfortable operating. Can he unlock the Watson of the Covid season, when he threw for 4,800 yards and 33 touchdowns against just seven interceptions? We can't glean that from the preseason. Stefanski didn't play him, and Watson has missed time periodically with general arm soreness. Still, his head coach is optimistic (as if he has a choice).
"He's done a nice job," said Stefanski. "We've really talked about it all offseason long into training camp. He's rehabbed from an injury, but then he's put himself in a position to really do a nice job in practice learning a couple of new concepts. He's grinding in the meeting room to make sure he's on top of everything. So, he's a pro, and he's done a really nice job with the work that he's gotten."
It sounds like a lot of blather, and until (unless?) Watson rediscovers his form, Stefanski, two-time Coach of the Year, could find himself on the hot seat. It's absurd, but the Browns are pot-committed, and with an unstable owner, Jimmy Haslem (look him up), it's unlikely he'll do what Denver did with Russell Wilson.
ONE LAST RIDE?
The Steelers also conducted a faux competition for the starting quarterback job this summer, and that ended this week when Mike Tomlin handed Russell Wilson the top job. I say handed because neither Wilson nor Justin Fields distinguished themselves this summer/preseason.
Wilson is just a few years removed from being a Pro Bowl-caliber signal caller, but after Sean Payton and the Broncos unceremoniously released him, he is playing for the veteran's minimum (while Denver pays him $30+ million).
"I think a lot of people doubt, and it's nothing that I'm not used to. I've heard it for a long time," he said. "I've just never been worried about what other people think...
"I'm one of 32 men in the world that get to do what I do. There's 8 billion people in the world, and for whatever reason, I get to be one of these guys."
The 35-year-old struggled mightily in the Mile High city, though he claims his first year there (2022) was severely impacted by a torn lat. In year two, his first under Payton, the numbers improved (66.4%, 26 TDs, 8 INTs), but Wilson clashed with his new boss. Now, perhaps one final chance to prove he's still worthy of being someone you can win with.
"In terms of legacy, the reason why I came here is I want to win another Super Bowl or two, and that's what we got to do," he said. "That's our plan. That's our strategy. That's our mission every day. And I think that's what really matters."
I'd be surprised - very surprised - if it ends that way for Wilson or the Steelers.
ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO?
After 38 days of a sometimes very contentious hold-in, Brandon Aiyuk finally got what he wanted from the San Francisco 49ers - a massive deal that keeps him in the Bay Area for the foreseeable future - and away from teams with questions at quarterback like the Patriots (he said no) and the Steelers.
It sure didn't seem like this would happen right before it did. Aiyuk walked out of the team facility Thursday, angry about the lack of progress. Shortly after that, per reports, he got a call from GM John Lynch saying, "There's a bag of money for you on the table. Take it or leave it." He took it, ensuring $47 million in his bank account between now and April 1, 2025, and $76 million in total guarantees.
San Francisco was so irritated by Aiyuk and his changing demands — they legit wondered what he wanted at one point, even after negotiating for months — that they called Denver and offered a third-round pick for Courtland Sutton. They would have then turned around and dealt Aiyuk to the Steelers (they always wanted a wide receiver in return for him). The Broncos declined the offer, though I'm guessing Sutton wishes otherwise.
Retaining Aiyuk now answers one of two big questions for the 49ers. The other remains left tackle Trent Williams, who plays at least 18 holes a day while he waits to reclaim the title of highest-paid offensive lineman in football. As someone who has already made more money than any OL in the game's history and sat out an entire season in Washington based on the franchise's treatment of him, the 36-year-old seems unlikely to budge. Meanwhile, Lynch desperately seeks a solution (more money, John).
"There's good communication," said Lynch mid-week. "We're constantly working, throwing out ideas to try to have a breakthrough, and it just hasn't happened yet.
"We don't get paid to try. We get paid to do,"
The clock is ticking, and the 49ers aren't winning without Williams. Time to earn your money, John.