The sheer quietness of the Jeremy Swayman negotiations with the Boston Bruins has probably unnerved some nervous B’s fans because there has been an overwhelming lack of, well, any new developments this summer without an executed contract.
Since Swayman and Bruins management declined to go the arbitration route earlier this summer in an absolute show of good faith, it’s been a case of counting down the summer calendar before things might get a little sticky once we hit September.
The smart money says this negotiation will run the same course as David Pastrnak’s big contract that was signed at the beginning of training camp, but that’s more educated guess than anything else. Earlier this week, Swayman indicated things were going well while he remains in the Boston area working out this summer.
“There’s a lot of confidence,” said Swayman during an appearance on WEEI/NESN on the Jimmy Fund Telethon. “And I say that because I’ve treated it like business as usual this year. I’ve been at Warrior, I’ve been working out with our guys, our staff, our players. And I know that there’s something special building in this locker room this year, and I can’t be more excited about that.
“I know that it will take care of itself with time, and all I can do is control how I’m going to be a better goalie for the Boston Bruins this year. So, that’s all I’m focused on. And I know, again, it will work out, and I couldn’t be happier to be a Bruin.”
The fact that Swayman has remained around Boston while active in events like the telethon is a sign that it is, in fact, business as usual, and that the concern level about negotiations shouldn’t yet be in any kind of danger zone. Andrew Raycroft certainly doesn’t sound worried about any of it.
What's the deal with the Bruins and Jeremy Swayman's contract? Razor: "It's going to get done!" What does Andrew "Razor" Raycroft think about the Bruins offseason thus far? @WEEI pic.twitter.com/ejtn0mrJAt
— The Greg Hill Show (@TheGregHillShow) July 19, 2024
The Bruins have $8.6 million in salary cap space, per our friends at Puckpedia, and most of that is obviously going to end up going to Boston’s No. 1 goaltender now that Linus Ullmark has been dealt to the Ottawa Senators.
The question of the summer has been “how much?” is it going to end up costing for the 25-year-old Swayman, with many just assuming it will be an eight-year, $64 million contract without batting an eyelash. This humble hockey writer has openly wondered if it might come in a little less than that since there really isn’t an NHL goaltender comparable to Swayman who’s been showered with that kind of payday.
Potentially complicating matters is the news this week that the St. Louis Blues have signed a pair of restricted free agents to offer sheets in an attempt to raid the Edmonton Oilers of two talented youngsters. Defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway were both former first round picks still establishing themselves at the NHL level, but also playing on a stacked Oilers team that doesn’t have any cap space to spend on anything at this point.
Doug Armstrong has swooped in with offer sheets in a move that isn’t seen very often in the NHL, but in this particular instance makes perfect sense given the situations in St. Louis (cap space and a lack of high-end talent) and Edmonton (less than zero cap space, a jam-packed roster and two players probably looking for a better opportunity elsewhere). The offer sheet stuff, though, would naturally be a potential stumbling block, or an impetus to getting a deal done, between Swayman and Boston depending on how you look at the situation.
In order for there to be an offer sheet, there would have to be a team, like the Blues, willing to sign Swayman to that offer sheet. The Utah hockey club has over $9 million in salary cap space and could theoretically do it based on their need for a franchise goalie, but a really interesting team to watch is the Atlantic Division rival Detroit Red Wings flush with cap space while holding over $17 million in available funds right now.
San Jose, Buffalo, Calgary and Anaheim also hold a large amount of cap space currently, but the other “catch” in an offer sheet situation is that the player must also agree to sign on to the offer sheet. Swayman would be unlikely to do that with the Sharks, Sabres, Flames and Ducks while all are still very much in rebuild situations with the Bruins goaltender now having a big-time taste for playoff hockey.
Another part of the equation is the money/compensation involved as the contract offers to Broberg (two year offer with an AAV of $4,580,917) and Holloway (two year offer with an AAV of $2,290,457) would require just a second and third round pick respectively as compensation. An offer sheet for Swayman would need to be in the $6.8-$9.1 million AAV range to get it done, which would require a team to surrender a first, second and third round pick as compensation for luring away Swayman.
Here is the 2024 compensation for an offer sheet signed by any of this year's RFA's:
— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) June 4, 2024
$1,511,701 AAV or less - No compensation
$1,5111,701 to $2,290,457 - 3rd round pick
$2,290,457 to $4,580,917 - 2nd round pick
$4,580,917 to $6,871,374 - 1st and 3rd round picks
$6,871,374 to…
It might be worth it for a team that sees a franchise goalie being the difference-maker into becoming a contending team, but that is still a ton to give up for a goaltender that’s never played more than 44 games in a season, never been a Vezina Trophy finalist and is just beginning to ascend to the elite level people have expected from him over the last few seasons.
Certainly, the playoff performance for Swayman makes it much easier to project him as the league’s next great goaltender, as he was the driving force for a Bruins team that could only score 2.38 goals per game during the Stanley Cup playoffs last spring.
Clearly the NHL Network is already there when it comes to Swayman as they’ve projected him as one of the league’s best goalies right now, and some like NHL.com’s Dan Rosen believe he should be paid like Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck despite falling well short of their resumes at this point in his career.
There is zero denying Swayman’s puck-stopping excellence, and his career numbers are extremely good while sharing time with Ullmark over the last few seasons, but a massive contract for Swayman right now would be massively paying for future performance rather than anything that he’s done to this point. That’s a ton of risk for an NHL team along with the capital and asset expenditures needed to make it happen, and that’s what makes it unlikely at a goaltending position where trade values never seem to be as high as one would expect them to be.
Take Ullmark for instance. The Bruins were only able to recoup a first-round pick (and bottom-6 grinder Mark Kastelic) for a Vezina Trophy-winning goalie because they were willing to take on a Joonas Korpisalo contract that Ottawa needed to unload.
The bottom line: This week’s offer sheets are a reminder that there is risk for the Bruins in these Swayman negotiations until he is signed, sealed and delivered, but there’s really no reason to worry about the contract talks until there’s a realistic, tangible reason to worry about them.